Showy-Nightlife-Tolerance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$23

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

33.5%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$129

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-09

last 06-18 17:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

75% 23% +$23

Other

20% — —

Politics

5% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (7) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes		-100	$1	0¢	$-0	$-1	06-18 17:47

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	2	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	05-23 07:25
bitcoin up or down june 10 2026 5am et	3	$10	10	3	+7	open	—	06-10 10:07
btc updown 5m 1781470800	1	$10	14	0	+14	open	—	06-14 21:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	2	$6	20	0	+20	open	—	05-14 18:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	Up	+$5	05-09 05:25
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	1	$5	227	0	+227	open	—	05-14 16:57
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$5	15	0	+15	open	—	05-13 08:01
fifwc esp cvi 2026 06 15 spread home 4pt5	1	$5	22	0	+22	open	—	06-15 09:04
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	1	$5	17	0	+17	open	—	05-17 20:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	1	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	05-25 20:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	1	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	05-15 20:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	1	$5	12	0	+12	Down	$-5	05-13 04:40
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$4	400	0	+400	open	—	05-18 09:04
btc updown 5m 1781427000	1	$4	9	0	+9	open	—	06-14 08:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	1	$4	6	0	+6	open	—	05-25 13:28
btc updown 5m 1781410200	1	$4	5	0	+5	open	—	06-14 04:13
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?	1	$3	127	0	+127	open	—	05-14 18:53
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	1	$3	31	0	+31	open	—	05-17 20:39
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	1	$2	143	0	+143	open	—	05-14 18:53
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	2	$1	12	12	+0	open	—	06-18 19:50
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	2	$1	45	145	-100	open	—	06-18 17:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	1	$1	50	0	+50	Up	$-1	05-13 22:13
fifwc irq nor 2026 06 16 total 8pt5	1	$1	62	0	+62	open	—	06-16 21:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	1	$1	25	0	+25	open	—	05-14 18:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	1	$1	12	0	+12	Down	$-1	05-13 13:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	1	$1	20	0	+20	open	—	05-15 07:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	1	$1	50	0	+50	Down	$-1	05-13 21:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	1	$1	20	0	+20	Down	$-1	05-13 09:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	1	$1	25	0	+25	Down	$-1	05-13 22:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	1	$1	20	0	+20	open	—	06-01 07:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-18 19:50:56	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	12	1¢	$0	0xe5e0b4…
06-18 17:47:38	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	145	0¢	$0	0x2a2ac0…
06-16 21:41:19	fifwc irq nor 2026 06 16 total 8pt5	Over	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0x307bd4…
06-15 09:04:03	fifwc esp cvi 2026 06 15 spread home 4pt5	Spain	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0x239e1a…
06-14 21:03:00	btc updown 5m 1781470800	Up	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0xb2e4e1…
06-14 08:53:43	btc updown 5m 1781427000	Down	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0xcccca9…
06-14 04:13:25	btc updown 5m 1781410200	Down	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0xf95a3b…
06-11 12:29:03	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	BUY	12	12¢	$1	0xc37759…
06-10 21:22:39	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0x0ca5ea…
06-10 10:07:18	bitcoin up or down june 10 2026 5am et	Up	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x97ba69…
06-10 09:44:55	bitcoin up or down june 10 2026 5am et	Up	BUY	3	55¢	$2	0x23c058…
06-10 09:14:04	bitcoin up or down june 10 2026 5am et	Down	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x473d42…
06-04 12:42:07	bitcoin above 66k on june 4 2026	Yes	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0xaf2205…
06-01 07:38:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x8f989c…
05-25 20:53:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0xd555cb…
05-25 13:28:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	62¢	$4	0x93ab82…
05-23 07:25:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x69d8a1…
05-23 07:23:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x731fc3…
05-18 09:04:24	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	300	1¢	$3	0x4b863e…
05-18 07:27:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x274f5c…
05-17 20:40:07	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x6d24d9…
05-17 20:39:58	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	10¢	$3	0xccfc7c…
05-16 09:06:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xe8ea06…
05-15 20:49:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x92cda5…
05-15 20:39:34	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xe926a3…
05-15 20:38:15	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	Yes	BUY	60	2¢	$1	0xff6487…
05-15 20:11:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xd84e47…
05-15 07:32:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x580338…
05-14 18:54:03	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0xbbf609…
05-14 18:53:38	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$2	0xcb98be…
05-14 18:53:17	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	127	2¢	$3	0x94294f…
05-14 18:34:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x8495dc…
05-14 18:25:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xdd2353…
05-14 18:16:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x31c409…
05-14 18:11:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x84f9e9…
05-14 18:07:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xeeefbb…
05-14 16:57:56	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	227	2¢	$5	0x853dd7…
05-14 11:13:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x263c31…
05-13 22:13:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xb918b8…
05-13 22:06:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xdc861f…
05-13 21:08:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xe60462…
05-13 15:08:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x561238…
05-13 13:46:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xcffc11…
05-13 13:37:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x6686f0…
05-13 09:23:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Up	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xa1f909…
05-13 08:38:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xd098f9…
05-13 08:27:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x73e65c…
05-13 08:13:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x241853…
05-13 08:08:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xd05432…
05-13 08:01:54	Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xe0c07d…
05-13 04:40:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xdaafc9…
05-09 05:25:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x974e2f…