Shiny-Waste — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

-$14

Hit rate

22.8%

Resolved

Trades

180

lifetime

Volume

$12.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$69

Open exposure

$406

3 positions

First seen

2026-03-13

last 06-09 22:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

43% — —

Other

33% 50% +$1

Sports

20% 0% $-0

Crypto

5% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	+158	$151	98¢	$155	+$4	06-08 19:42
Will Alberta join the US?	No	+147	$141	96¢	$141	+$1	06-05 08:02
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	+415	$129	26¢	$110	$-19	06-05 14:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Alberta join the US?	11	$942	1,191	1,044	+147	open	—	06-06 09:54
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	7	$731	457	457	+0	open	—	05-27 18:29
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	6	$708	445	445	+0	open	—	04-09 05:54
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	6	$660	342	342	+0	No	+$0	03-23 07:26
will matt fitzpatrick win the 2026 masters tournament	4	$639	325	325	+0	open	—	03-20 09:30
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	12	$532	839	681	+158	open	—	06-08 19:42
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	3	$504	337	176	+161	open	—	04-11 12:47
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	4	$404	374	374	+0	open	—	06-09 11:14
israel closes its airspace by june 9	2	$391	200	200	+0	open	—	06-09 22:08
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	2	$372	477	477	+0	open	—	06-09 17:13
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	3	$366	236	236	+0	open	—	05-21 05:39
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	5	$363	189	189	+0	open	—	05-20 01:03
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$353	179	179	+0	No	+$0	03-29 07:32
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	6	$352	259	259	+0	open	—	06-04 15:53
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$351	178	178	+0	open	—	04-04 12:39
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	12	$339	802	802	+0	No	+$1	04-06 21:24
will iowa state win the 2026 ncaa tournament	2	$331	173	173	+0	open	—	03-21 19:23
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	7	$327	735	320	+415	open	—	06-05 14:06
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	3	$319	162	162	+0	open	—	04-05 19:12
will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	3	$303	160	160	+0	open	—	03-20 12:30
Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	2	$303	153	153	+0	open	—	03-18 06:16
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	3	$303	154	154	+0	open	—	03-15 19:37
will min woo lee win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$302	153	153	+0	open	—	03-17 12:34
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$270	137	137	+0	open	—	05-27 00:42
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$266	135	135	+0	open	—	03-28 00:49
will bitcoin dip to 65k in march 2026	3	$264	342	342	+0	open	—	03-23 01:31
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	3	$248	159	159	+0	open	—	06-05 22:34
Iran leadership change by June 30?	5	$242	126	126	+0	open	—	06-06 14:59
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	2	$207	105	105	+0	open	—	06-03 05:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	3	$156	202	202	+0	open	—	05-28 17:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 22:08:52	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	200	97¢	$194	0x8b48e8…
06-09 21:00:03	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	200	98¢	$197	0x921882…
06-09 17:13:51	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	477	39¢	$186	0x9b4383…
06-09 13:18:09	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	477	39¢	$186	0x9e1283…
06-09 11:14:57	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	204	97¢	$197	0x70c3dd…
06-09 09:00:06	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	204	97¢	$197	0x4807f8…
06-09 01:28:15	Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	SELL	306	10¢	$31	0xbc4da6…
06-09 00:11:19	Iran Nuke before 2027?	Yes	BUY	306	10¢	$31	0x9f81cd…
06-08 19:42:45	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	114	99¢	$112	0xc20611…
06-08 19:42:45	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	66	99¢	$65	0x0e7bac…
06-08 15:25:06	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xc1f64b…
06-08 15:25:06	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	165	98¢	$163	0x969958…
06-07 18:19:42	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	SELL	170	3¢	$5	0x1e07b5…
06-07 16:08:46	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	BUY	170	3¢	$5	0x847b5e…
06-07 05:15:36	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	122	7¢	$8	0x8f8ca1…
06-07 00:25:33	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	122	7¢	$8	0x1ae204…
06-06 14:59:25	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0xf9c4ed…
06-06 14:59:25	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	112	96¢	$108	0xb17d57…
06-06 14:59:25	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	8	96¢	$8	0x3c5c3b…
06-06 12:33:48	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	113	96¢	$109	0x50ef98…
06-06 12:33:48	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	13	96¢	$12	0x3a6cab…
06-06 09:54:55	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	181	5¢	$9	0x98b11f…
06-06 09:54:55	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	147	5¢	$7	0x743df7…
06-06 09:54:55	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	238	5¢	$11	0x25efb7…
06-06 09:54:55	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	90	5¢	$4	0x140363…
06-06 06:51:24	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	656	5¢	$30	0x6433cc…
06-05 22:34:57	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	159	78¢	$124	0x0e77b9…
06-05 17:26:58	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	139	78¢	$108	0xf7d4bd…
06-05 17:26:58	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x2db5ee…
06-05 14:06:57	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	13	31¢	$4	0x8e4219…
06-05 14:06:57	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	2	31¢	$1	0x6fdea6…
06-05 14:06:57	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	35	31¢	$11	0x2d3a95…
06-05 14:06:54	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	154	31¢	$48	0xc2a953…
06-05 14:06:54	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	116	31¢	$36	0x9e258c…
06-05 11:27:24	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	320	31¢	$99	0xd460e6…
06-05 08:02:00	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	206	95¢	$196	0x478136…
06-05 06:37:12	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	206	95¢	$196	0x298aba…
06-04 15:53:01	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	17	69¢	$12	0xba79c5…
06-04 15:53:01	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	115	69¢	$79	0x150a66…
06-04 15:53:01	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	93	69¢	$64	0x1134fb…
06-04 15:53:00	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	SELL	34	69¢	$23	0x6a744a…
06-04 12:26:16	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	163	67¢	$109	0xdcbd71…
06-04 12:26:16	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	96	67¢	$64	0x17dd14…
06-03 05:15:32	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	105	99¢	$104	0x77a360…
06-03 01:45:57	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	105	99¢	$104	0x6f12d7…
06-02 18:16:59	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	76	19¢	$15	0x6e5117…
06-02 16:38:05	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	76	19¢	$15	0xfc195a…
06-02 08:51:16	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	63	96¢	$60	0xe18faa…
06-02 08:51:16	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	119	96¢	$114	0xd19fdf…
06-02 04:47:42	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	182	96¢	$174	0x081782…
06-01 14:57:49	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	147	96¢	$141	0xcb968b…
05-31 23:36:51	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	127	3¢	$3	0xa44cae…
05-31 23:36:51	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	179	3¢	$5	0x87cf5e…
05-31 23:36:51	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	3¢	$1	0x7f1bd8…
05-31 23:36:51	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	137	3¢	$4	0x0705d7…
05-31 23:36:51	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	3¢	$1	0x059bc0…
05-31 20:31:19	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	501	2¢	$13	0xc87e7c…
05-31 11:18:58	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	160	28¢	$45	0x4a4e83…
05-31 11:10:20	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	160	25¢	$40	0x4e1e24…
05-30 03:39:06	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	145	96¢	$139	0x6353a3…
05-30 03:39:06	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	13	96¢	$12	0x48aa72…
05-29 19:38:09	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	415	31¢	$129	0xcff0fb…
05-29 04:01:05	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	310	5¢	$15	0x841c79…
05-29 00:53:34	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	310	4¢	$14	0x2a163c…
05-28 17:20:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	202	39¢	$79	0x98dca7…
05-28 15:25:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	65	38¢	$25	0xc3f1b6…
05-28 15:25:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	137	38¢	$52	0xa57dd4…
05-28 02:07:22	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	320	1¢	$4	0x4dde91…
05-28 00:04:28	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	225	1¢	$3	0x6ce142…
05-28 00:04:28	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	95	1¢	$1	0x103524…
05-27 18:29:54	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	SELL	81	4¢	$3	0xb159a3…
05-27 16:53:02	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0xf24f32…
05-27 16:53:02	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	76	4¢	$3	0xd4bb41…
05-27 00:42:04	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	137	98¢	$135	0xf5cf66…
05-26 22:42:52	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	137	98¢	$135	0x61dc45…
05-26 05:48:28	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	191	95¢	$182	0x00d6d4…
05-26 04:07:38	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	BUY	191	94¢	$180	0x2bd358…
05-25 09:14:55	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	203	3¢	$5	0x7196d7…
05-25 09:14:55	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	43	3¢	$1	0x67bfe2…
05-25 07:20:00	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	85	3¢	$2	0xeabab6…
05-25 07:20:00	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	161	3¢	$4	0x041d66…
05-21 05:39:22	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	139	77¢	$107	0xea8cc9…
05-21 05:39:22	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	97	77¢	$75	0xa9602e…
05-21 04:13:41	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	236	78¢	$184	0x157285…
05-20 01:03:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	169	96¢	$162	0xd0d150…
05-20 01:03:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0x5982b3…
05-19 23:13:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	55	96¢	$52	0x321b5b…
05-19 23:13:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	33	96¢	$32	0x125cf6…
05-19 23:13:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	101	96¢	$97	0x0eaad1…
05-19 18:49:23	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	185	99¢	$182	0x19eeaa…
05-19 16:48:13	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	BUY	185	98¢	$181	0x9c703c…
05-18 08:24:58	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	3¢	$1	0x87b7c3…
05-15 08:37:27	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	115	2¢	$3	0xc76849…
05-15 08:37:27	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	154	2¢	$4	0x8fb9e6…
05-15 08:36:03	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	293	2¢	$7	0xbab20b…
04-11 12:47:55	JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	161	98¢	$157	0xbe2a9a…
04-11 11:16:07	JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	176	98¢	$173	0x46af0d…
04-11 07:00:03	JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	176	99¢	$174	0x0d342b…
04-11 02:28:55	Trump out as President by April 30?	Yes	SELL	341	1¢	$5	0x1c0151…
04-10 23:59:43	Trump out as President by April 30?	Yes	BUY	341	2¢	$5	0x8692fd…