Petty-Dealing — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.24K

Unrealized P&L

-$11

Hit rate

2.1%

Resolved

Trades

213

lifetime

Volume

$4.42K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$21

Open exposure

$14

4 positions

First seen

2026-03-01

last 06-30 18:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

49% — —

Other

47% 17% $-1,238

Crypto

3% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

13 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (6) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+111	$10	6¢	$7	$-3	06-01 16:16
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	+26	$5	16¢	$4	$-1	06-18 03:32
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	+56	$5	4¢	$2	$-3	05-30 22:40
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	+238	$5	0¢	$0	$-5	05-30 22:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	2	$1.8K	1,746	1,746	+0	open	—	03-08 21:15
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	73	$900	31,803	2,299	+29,504	No	$-870	04-09 20:10
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	7	$282	57,583	57,583	+0	open	—	03-13 14:14
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?	3	$258	4,917	0	+4,917	No	$-258	03-13 08:27
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	6	$233	8,752	0	+8,752	open	—	04-09 20:10
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	6	$107	1,957	0	+1,957	Yes	$-107	04-09 20:05
will israel strike 2 countries in march 2026	2	$96	171	171	+0	open	—	03-12 10:10
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	3	$48	980	980	+0	No	$-2	03-11 12:55
netanyahu out by march 31 854	4	$38	339	339	+0	open	—	03-29 03:27
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	2	$37	145	145	+0	open	—	03-13 09:45
will bitcoin reach 95k in march 2026	3	$36	2,796	2,796	+0	open	—	03-25 08:59
will any eu country strike iran by march 31	2	$34	154	154	+0	open	—	03-13 14:15
btc updown 5m 1773267000	10	$34	13,699	0	+13,699	open	—	03-11 22:15
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	2	$29	50	50	+0	open	—	03-08 21:18
Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$28	167	167	+0	No	+$8	03-14 09:22
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$24	400	400	+0	open	—	03-13 14:16
will uae strike iran by march 31	2	$23	15	15	+0	open	—	03-11 13:02
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$23	162	162	+0	open	—	03-14 09:19
iran leadership change by march 31	2	$21	15	15	+0	open	—	03-14 18:22
will qatar strike iran by march 31	2	$21	12	12	+0	open	—	03-11 13:01
will trump visit china by march 31	2	$20	31	31	+0	open	—	03-13 09:45
Iran nuclear test before 2027?	2	$19	143	143	+0	open	—	06-23 17:08
will afd win the second most seats in the 2026 rhineland palatinate parliamentary elections	2	$18	277	277	+0	open	—	03-11 04:36
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$17	15	15	+0	open	—	03-09 15:37
will any european country expel an israeli ambassador by march 31	2	$16	101	101	+0	open	—	03-13 14:15
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	2	$16	58	58	+0	open	—	06-24 10:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	3	$15	63	0	+63	open	—	05-30 23:12
will uk strike iran by march 31	2	$14	53	53	+0	open	—	03-14 22:29
fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 team to advance	2	$12	97	0	+97	open	—	06-30 18:07
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?	2	$12	153	153	+0	No	$-8	03-13 14:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 18:07:25	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 team to advance	Sweden	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x521257…
06-30 18:05:02	fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 team to advance	Côte d'Ivoire	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0xf5a2e3…
06-30 06:39:23	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 team to advance	Sweden	BUY	14	12¢	$2	0x9501b8…
06-29 21:34:59	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team total home 0pt5	Under	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x0d5099…
06-29 21:34:17	fifwc nld mar 2026 06 29 team to advance	Morocco	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x9507ab…
06-29 18:48:34	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 team to advance	Japan	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x0bb649…
06-29 17:36:34	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 team total home 2pt5	Over	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xc57518…
06-29 17:09:29	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 btts first half	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xa712da…
06-29 17:08:40	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 team total away 2pt5	Over	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x8ad7a8…
06-26 23:38:13	fifwc ury esp 2026 06 26 team total home 0pt5	Over	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xf2461a…
06-26 23:37:56	fifwc ury esp 2026 06 26 team total away 1pt5	Over	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x025369…
06-26 23:37:49	fifwc ury esp 2026 06 26 team total away 2pt5	Over	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xc0928d…
06-26 23:37:26	fifwc ury esp 2026 06 26 btts	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x9744b2…
06-24 23:28:14	fifwc sco bra 2026 06 24 team total away 2pt5	Over	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xcaca77…
06-24 22:41:04	fifwc sco bra 2026 06 24 btts	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x545ac9…
06-24 22:39:46	fifwc sco bra 2026 06 24 team total away 2pt5	Over	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x33c2f6…
06-24 22:37:55	Macron out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	125	0¢	$0	0x1002dd…
06-24 22:36:43	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	SELL	33	9¢	$3	0x6a48c5…
06-24 10:50:22	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	58	24¢	$14	0x4872e7…
06-23 17:08:44	Iran nuclear test before 2027?	Yes	SELL	143	6¢	$9	0xc79ecb…
06-18 03:32:34	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x86ae9f…
06-18 03:31:28	Iran nuclear test before 2027?	Yes	BUY	143	7¢	$10	0xfb8c54…
06-17 17:54:22	will trump physically sign us x iran deal 20260615192526331	Yes	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x1df9fd…
06-17 17:50:43	Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	490	0¢	$1	0xcc13fe…
06-13 02:12:36	Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	342	1¢	$4	0x9932e1…
06-01 16:17:55	Macron out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0xd5f803…
06-01 16:16:48	Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0xb77b8a…
06-01 16:13:30	Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2?	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x10360b…
06-01 16:10:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	1,000	0¢	$1	0xcaed3f…
05-31 14:36:45	Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May?	Yes	BUY	59	2¢	$1	0x693aba…
05-31 14:36:06	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 31?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0xd16b0e…
05-31 14:33:16	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 31?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x3a982a…
05-30 23:12:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x36c6e6…
05-30 23:12:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Up	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x0ee52f…
05-30 23:11:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x928bfe…
05-30 23:02:51	XRP Up or Down - May 30, 6PM ET	Up	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0x5d4dcc…
05-30 23:00:42	XRP Up or Down - May 30, 6PM ET	Up	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0x00db80…
05-30 22:59:06	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31?	Up	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x0e0d72…
05-30 22:49:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$3	0xcf6c9d…
05-30 22:40:34	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x203621…
05-30 22:40:29	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0xbd03e3…
05-30 22:40:22	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	Yes	BUY	238	2¢	$5	0xde9e01…
05-29 22:36:00	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	58	3¢	$2	0x4e6bba…
05-29 22:35:57	Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	148	1¢	$2	0xdf99aa…
05-29 22:22:23	World Cup game relocated away from Mexico?	Yes	BUY	76	4¢	$3	0x9e223b…
04-09 20:10:19	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	201	1¢	$2	0x33b2cf…
04-09 20:10:07	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	333	1¢	$3	0x011b26…
04-09 20:06:23	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	914	1¢	$7	0x2a6508…
04-09 20:06:15	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1,250	1¢	$10	0xf3ce4b…
04-09 20:05:57	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1,250	1¢	$10	0xbbe8eb…
04-09 20:05:45	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	116	4¢	$5	0x405ed2…
03-29 03:27:50	netanyahu out by march 31 854	Yes	SELL	92	0¢	$0	0x17cfd6…
03-25 09:00:23	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	387	2¢	$6	0xae4862…
03-25 08:59:57	bitcoin all time high by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	600	0¢	$1	0xf48f97…
03-25 08:59:43	will bitcoin reach 95k in march 2026	Yes	SELL	2,796	0¢	$6	0xb3be7d…
03-14 22:31:29	netanyahu out by march 31 854	Yes	BUY	92	6¢	$6	0x9ff03a…
03-14 22:31:05	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	Yes	SELL	28	2¢	$0	0xd36a05…
03-14 22:30:19	iranhezbollah strike on cyprus by march 15	Yes	SELL	42	2¢	$1	0xd518a9…
03-14 22:29:53	will uk strike iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	53	7¢	$4	0x7ee46e…
03-14 18:54:45	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	347	2¢	$8	0x9a7e8d…
03-14 18:23:07	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	930	2¢	$20	0xa9d746…
03-14 18:22:37	iran leadership change by march 31	No	SELL	15	77¢	$11	0xcf6e88…
03-14 18:21:49	will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	Yes	SELL	25	8¢	$2	0x979a66…
03-14 14:56:17	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	955	3¢	$26	0x4cabe6…
03-14 14:54:29	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	319	5¢	$17	0xc52830…
03-14 14:54:15	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	169	2¢	$4	0xb367fd…
03-14 11:53:53	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	131	2¢	$3	0xa6300a…
03-14 09:22:33	Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	167	11¢	$18	0x50b51c…
03-14 09:19:19	Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	162	9¢	$15	0xad0ae0…
03-14 09:16:31	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	1,526	2¢	$32	0xd67a4a…
03-14 09:15:51	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	545	5¢	$30	0xec8fbc…
03-14 09:15:33	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	364	5¢	$20	0x4954eb…
03-14 09:15:17	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	2,300	2¢	$46	0xf3e39d…
03-14 07:16:05	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	145	2¢	$3	0x91e591…
03-14 07:15:57	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	502	2¢	$10	0xdaf897…
03-13 20:15:53	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	90	2¢	$2	0x60c333…
03-13 19:58:57	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	190	2¢	$4	0x2f7794…
03-13 19:38:57	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	184	2¢	$4	0xb18331…
03-13 17:22:59	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	454	2¢	$9	0xe23f37…
03-13 16:50:37	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	413	2¢	$8	0x2b6a81…
03-13 16:08:25	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	48	2¢	$1	0x252f5a…
03-13 16:08:15	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	494	2¢	$10	0x070e14…
03-13 14:50:59	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	264	2¢	$5	0x660880…
03-13 14:50:47	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	558	2¢	$10	0xc39aa5…
03-13 14:18:01	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	370	3¢	$10	0xc21f79…
03-13 14:17:17	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0x49b069…
03-13 14:17:05	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	215	2¢	$4	0x20f992…
03-13 14:16:55	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	557	2¢	$10	0x657611…
03-13 14:16:47	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	560	2¢	$10	0xc76d23…
03-13 14:16:17	Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	400	3¢	$14	0xe2705d…
03-13 14:15:37	will any european country expel an israeli ambassador by march 31	Yes	SELL	101	6¢	$6	0x2b5d74…
03-13 14:15:17	netanyahu out by march 31 854	Yes	SELL	246	5¢	$13	0x11522d…
03-13 14:15:03	will any eu country strike iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	154	9¢	$14	0xe07314…
03-13 14:14:35	will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	7,500	0¢	$8	0x439b60…
03-13 14:13:23	will rose byrne win best actress at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	148	2¢	$3	0x35d465…
03-13 14:13:03	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	153	1¢	$2	0x90683e…
03-13 14:12:11	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	370	3¢	$10	0xc1a912…
03-13 10:30:19	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	213	2¢	$4	0x5b7cf1…
03-13 10:30:11	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	688	1¢	$10	0x612106…
03-13 10:08:25	Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	118	1¢	$2	0x566231…