Vivacious-Stealth 0x21a514…239a18
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Realized P&L
-$2
Unrealized P&L
-$13
Hit rate
26.7%
Resolved
4
Trades
2,431
lifetime
Volume
$13.2K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$5
Open exposure
$311
27 positions
First seen
2026-02-20
last 06-30 05:35
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 3 days
Categories
Politics
33% 0% $-0
Crypto
32% — —
Other
28% 33% $-2
Tech
3% — —
Sports
3% — —
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
73 active days in 12wk • peak 172 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +132 $117 86¢ $114 $-3 06-22 20:23
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No +61 $59 100¢ $61 +$2 06-20 12:05
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No +51 $48 100¢ $51 +$3 06-28 22:25
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No -20 $-15 86¢ $-17 $-2 06-26 09:21
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No -15 $-14 100¢ $-15 $-1 06-01 19:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No +10 $2 100¢ $10 +$8 06-27 04:10
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +10 $7 66¢ $7 +$0 06-27 20:20
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No -5 $-5 100¢ $-5 +$0 06-22 11:34
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? No +5 $5 99¢ $5 +$0 06-29 02:13
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No +5 $5 100¢ $5 +$0 06-25 01:58
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +6 $10 86¢ $5 $-5 06-30 20:50
Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30? No +5 $5 96¢ $5 $-0 06-30 05:35
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes +5 $5 90¢ $5 +$0 06-29 08:27
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? No +5 $4 84¢ $4 +$0 06-29 01:17
Iran Nuke before 2027? No +0 $0 94¢ $0 +$0 06-10 13:33
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No +0 $0 99¢ $0 +$0 06-18 17:58
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Yes +1 $3 16¢ $0 $-3 06-28 21:26
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No +0 $0 92¢ $0 $-0 06-29 17:40
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No +0 $0 94¢ $0 +$0 06-22 11:34
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No +0 $0 56¢ $0 $-0 06-30 21:30
Netanyahu out by June 30? No +0 $-0 100¢ $0 +$0 06-18 17:58
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +0 $0 70¢ $0 $-0 06-22 11:34
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? No +0 $0 60¢ $0 $-0 06-16 21:44
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No +0 $0 86¢ $0 $-0 06-29 17:40
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No +0 $0 76¢ $0 $-0 06-26 13:07
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Yes +0 $6 28¢ $0 $-6 06-25 20:56
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes +0 $7 0¢ $0 $-7 06-19 19:42