Vivacious-Stealth — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2

Unrealized P&L

-$42

Hit rate

26.7%

Resolved

Trades

2,784

lifetime

Volume

$15.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$116

12 positions

First seen

2026-02-20

last 07-18 17:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

34% 0% $-0

Other

31% 33% $-2

Crypto

28% — —

Sports

3% — —

Tech

3% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

67 active days in 12wk • peak 172 trades/day

Open positions (12) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+98	$92	70¢	$69	$-23	07-07 16:14
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	-20	$-15	86¢	$-17	$-2	07-13 21:00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	+20	$17	50¢	$10	$-6	07-04 19:31
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+35	$16	22¢	$8	$-8	07-15 17:25
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	+10	$7	66¢	$7	+$0	06-27 20:20
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	-5	$-2	86¢	$-4	$-2	07-15 17:20
Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	+0	$0	94¢	$0	+$0	06-10 13:33
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	+0	$0	62¢	$0	$-0	06-16 21:44
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	+0	$0	70¢	$0	$-0	07-06 18:20
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	+0	$0	66¢	$0	$-0	07-05 20:25
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	+0	$0	81¢	$0	$-0	06-26 13:07
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	+0	$0	78¢	$0	$-0	07-05 23:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	77	$722	378	378	+0	open	—	07-07 09:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	60	$545	291	291	+0	open	—	07-04 19:48
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	90	$545	372	275	+98	open	—	07-07 16:14
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	72	$476	338	275	+64	open	—	06-17 07:58
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	59	$457	268	268	+0	open	—	07-13 01:08
israel closes its airspace by july 31	73	$351	199	194	+5	open	—	07-11 22:19
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	70	$343	324	262	+61	open	—	06-20 12:05
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	98	$328	429	424	+5	open	—	07-07 08:24
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	55	$314	187	207	-20	open	—	07-13 21:00
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	31	$254	143	148	-5	open	—	07-15 17:20
will canada strike iran by march 31	36	$246	126	126	+0	open	—	03-14 01:30
rodrigo paz out as president of bolivia by june 30 2026	25	$206	111	116	-5	open	—	06-11 03:12
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	32	$190	100	100	+0	open	—	03-13 17:59
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	28	$171	127	127	-0	open	—	06-06 17:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	20	$155	92	92	+0	open	—	07-15 07:01
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	20	$138	75	85	-10	open	—	05-25 08:01
israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	17	$137	77	77	+0	open	—	07-15 07:01
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	17	$127	66	66	+0	open	—	07-15 07:01
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	16	$100	55	55	+0	open	—	03-23 14:51
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	12	$99	51	51	-0	open	—	06-22 06:31
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	6	$84	156	121	+35	open	—	07-15 17:25
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	14	$83	46	46	+0	open	—	06-25 01:44
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	14	$83	46	46	+0	open	—	05-18 06:24
starmer out by august 31 2026 593 871 753 427 452	10	$75	41	41	+0	open	—	06-22 08:35
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	11	$72	38	38	-0	open	—	06-18 17:58
us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	8	$70	36	36	+0	open	—	07-15 07:01
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	9	$69	36	36	-0	open	—	06-28 22:02
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	12	$69	35	41	-5	open	—	06-22 11:34
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	15	$69	49	64	-15	open	—	06-22 02:53
will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	17	$68	72	20	+52	open	—	07-12 01:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-18 17:08:34	Taylor Swift pregnant before 2027?	No	SELL	5	89¢	$5	0xe0057b…
07-18 17:07:21	tamas sulyok out as president of hungary by july 31 20260626200424352	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xb2dd09…
07-16 10:14:35	us obtains iranian enriched uranium by september 30	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x3489df…
07-15 17:25:34	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	29¢	$10	0x94856d…
07-15 17:23:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	46	13¢	$6	0x36e10c…
07-15 17:20:50	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	137	87¢	$120	0x25200b…
07-15 07:02:11	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	SELL	15	88¢	$14	0xd67831…
07-15 07:01:55	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	No	SELL	27	99¢	$26	0x15c591…
07-15 07:01:40	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	SELL	36	98¢	$35	0xe58766…
07-15 07:01:31	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	56	99¢	$56	0x934c9b…
07-15 07:01:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	72	99¢	$71	0x5ee4e5…
07-13 21:00:04	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	0	86¢	$0	0x5c897a…
07-13 20:59:04	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0x8624fa…
07-13 19:58:41	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x3d668e…
07-13 14:02:47	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x94cc91…
07-13 07:22:41	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x88d1c5…
07-13 04:13:07	moscow air traffic suspended by july 17 20260708152920012	Yes	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xb4ce67…
07-13 01:08:52	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x68dc62…
07-13 00:30:11	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	120	100¢	$120	0x547b35…
07-12 23:16:29	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	0	96¢	$0	0x915eff…
07-12 23:15:34	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xd8329f…
07-12 20:48:47	will databricks valuation hit low 145 by july 31 20260629184745128	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xa7645d…
07-12 19:04:47	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xa0fba1…
07-12 04:05:29	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0xcba629…
07-12 02:59:20	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	57¢	$0	0x6263a6…
07-12 02:59:05	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11 holloway win by ko tko	No	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xd0934e…
07-12 02:57:49	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x76a9d1…
07-12 02:52:43	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	59¢	$3	0x138030…
07-12 02:23:08	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11 holloway win by ko tko	No	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xa148cf…
07-12 01:40:58	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x8b2a82…
07-12 01:05:32	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x11f23a…
07-12 00:38:47	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xfc988c…
07-11 22:19:41	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x506b51…
07-11 22:16:20	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xe113b7…
07-11 22:16:20	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xa81c87…
07-11 22:16:20	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x2301c2…
07-11 21:54:29	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x725b5d…
07-11 21:53:11	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x1781ce…
07-11 20:59:13	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	SELL	4	84¢	$3	0xa0d4ec…
07-11 20:13:10	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	5	89¢	$5	0xbd3885…
07-11 20:12:49	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0xe5ca2e…
07-11 20:12:49	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0xcfc284…
07-11 20:12:49	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0xbf838d…
07-11 20:12:49	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xb8ffc8…
07-11 20:12:10	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	11	89¢	$9	0xe92a4e…
07-11 20:12:10	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xa16996…
07-11 20:12:10	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x548127…
07-11 20:12:10	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x4b0c98…
07-11 20:11:53	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xa79651…
07-11 20:11:53	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0x3fbb61…
07-11 20:11:53	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0x2c484b…
07-11 20:11:53	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x1f3b19…
07-11 20:11:14	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	10	89¢	$9	0x8ac98d…
07-11 20:11:13	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xb6aacb…
07-11 20:10:59	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xe1c085…
07-11 20:10:59	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x9414bf…
07-11 20:10:58	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xc51af0…
07-11 20:10:58	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0x5ec078…
07-11 20:10:23	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	15	89¢	$13	0xfa0ec9…
07-11 20:10:04	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xdded30…
07-11 20:10:04	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xce7692…
07-11 20:10:04	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	10	89¢	$9	0xada0d6…
07-11 20:10:04	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x79b772…
07-11 20:09:29	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	10	89¢	$9	0x719aa1…
07-11 20:09:28	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xc39a5f…
07-11 20:09:10	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xf2ef99…
07-11 20:09:10	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xdeb3f5…
07-11 20:09:10	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xd688ed…
07-11 20:09:10	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	11	89¢	$10	0x2b3f37…
07-11 20:08:49	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x629604…
07-11 20:08:49	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0x3bda73…
07-11 20:08:49	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0x211dca…
07-11 20:08:49	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x05661c…
07-11 20:08:10	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xf208f8…
07-11 20:08:10	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0xe25582…
07-11 20:08:10	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0x8cd501…
07-11 20:08:10	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x00c392…
07-11 20:07:49	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0xce3222…
07-11 20:07:49	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xcbefd8…
07-11 20:07:49	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0x6f74e7…
07-11 20:07:49	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x606f2f…
07-11 20:07:11	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0xfb86f9…
07-11 20:07:11	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xce634a…
07-11 20:07:11	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x85e3ee…
07-11 20:07:11	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0x5b9966…
07-11 20:06:49	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x74a07f…
07-11 20:06:49	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x730f49…
07-11 20:06:49	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0x37c822…
07-11 20:06:49	us obtains iranian enriched uranium by september 30	No	SELL	10	95¢	$10	0x238356…
07-11 20:06:10	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x9ff845…
07-11 20:06:10	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	5	89¢	$5	0x9915d8…
07-11 20:05:49	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x840610…
07-11 20:05:49	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0x153e4c…
07-11 20:05:10	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xe37ded…
07-11 20:05:08	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0x0a23a1…
07-11 20:04:49	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0xb02f3e…
07-11 20:04:49	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x87a441…
07-11 20:04:29	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0xf671a5…
07-11 20:04:29	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x245e39…
07-11 19:45:40	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xf73c8d…