Hospitable-Pumpernickel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$24

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

92.1%

Resolved

124

Trades

178

lifetime

Volume

$1.27K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-12

last 11-04 07:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 44 days

Categories

Other

58% 89% +$1

Politics

20% 67% -$26

Crypto

20% 100% +$1

Tech

3% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

33 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	3	$92	71	39	+33	No	-$26	10-15 10:14
Will Jimmy Lai win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	2	$78	39	39	+0	No	+$0	10-09 11:56
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	2	$74	37	37	+0	No	+$0	09-07 12:47
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	3	$64	32	32	+0	Yes	+$0	10-13 13:26
LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch?	3	$61	31	31	+0	Yes	+$0	09-10 05:21
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	2	$51	28	28	+0	open	—	10-04 01:29
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	1	$36	37	0	+37	No	+$0	08-09 21:33
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	1	$36	36	0	+36	Yes	+$0	08-05 12:25
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	1	$36	36	0	+36	No	+$0	08-11 22:15
untitled market 1 20260803235754057	1	$35	37	0	+37	No	+$1	08-13 23:41
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	1	$35	36	0	+36	No	+$0	08-13 00:54
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	1	$35	35	0	+35	No	+$0	08-21 10:01
Will xAI have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	1	$31	31	0	+31	No	+$0	06-30 03:20
LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?	1	$31	31	0	+31	No	+$0	09-10 19:26
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	08-28 11:33
will xi jinping visit us by september 23	1	$29	29	0	+29	Yes	+$0	09-23 10:12
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	1	$25	25	0	+25	Yes	+$0	10-05 00:21
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	2	$25	13	13	+0	No	+$0	10-29 13:19
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in August?	2	$24	12	12	+0	No	+$0	08-27 15:07
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	3	$22	13	13	+0	open	—	11-04 07:16
will ethereum dip to 1700 in july 2026 from july 6	1	$22	22	0	+22	No	+$0	07-31 22:40
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in August?	3	$21	11	11	+0	No	+$0	08-27 13:46
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	1	$18	19	0	+19	No	+$0	08-18 07:11
will xrp dip to 1 in march 2026	1	$18	18	0	+18	No	+$0	03-31 09:42
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?	1	$18	18	0	+18	No	+$0	05-31 22:22
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$17	17	0	+17	Yes	+$0	07-31 09:24
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	1	$16	16	0	+16	Yes	+$0	05-31 00:14
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in September?	2	$14	7	7	+0	No	+$0	09-17 06:49
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	2	$13	7	7	+0	No	+$0	10-14 18:04
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	1	$13	14	0	+14	No	+$1	10-03 23:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 07:16:24	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	80¢	$9	0x987747…
11-04 07:16:24	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	80¢	$2	0x05753c…
11-04 06:47:01	Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	91¢	$12	0x2a4192…
10-29 13:19:25	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x80fd76…
10-29 00:12:05	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$12	0x434844…
10-15 10:14:56	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	33	82¢	$27	0x887af5…
10-14 18:04:27	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x3e50cf…
10-13 13:26:59	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0xf24815…
10-13 13:25:59	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x7c08a7…
10-13 11:14:23	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0xbd9e71…
10-10 09:24:49	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x160639…
10-09 11:56:25	Will Jimmy Lai win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	39	100¢	$39	0x7090b6…
10-09 08:16:49	Will Jimmy Lai win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0x1d8f8e…
10-08 15:04:47	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	39	85¢	$33	0xa11db3…
10-07 11:19:17	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	39	84¢	$32	0xaa555f…
10-05 00:21:25	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xe5a723…
10-04 01:29:01	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	SELL	28	92¢	$25	0x8ee578…
10-03 23:52:58	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	No	BUY	14	95¢	$13	0x14cc9d…
10-01 03:55:45	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0xdea603…
09-30 02:25:36	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x1ad23e…
09-29 11:44:00	will bitcoin dip to 60k in september 2026	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xe9cc23…
09-27 01:26:00	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	BUY	28	92¢	$25	0xa9d333…
09-25 17:07:50	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0xbf5398…
09-23 10:12:40	will xi jinping visit us by september 23	Yes	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x5013a0…
09-22 18:07:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x29f604…
09-22 12:48:42	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in September?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x8faa17…
09-17 06:49:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in September?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xd04302…
09-11 00:41:46	Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6d770d…
09-10 19:26:34	LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	31	99¢	$31	0x59aaf9…
09-10 05:21:06	LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	31	99¢	$30	0x789bbb…
09-09 19:40:48	LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x99f6dd…
09-09 19:40:18	LAPTOP FDV above $25M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	99¢	$29	0x98b310…
09-09 13:41:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in September?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x173eff…
09-07 12:47:45	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	37	100¢	$37	0x63aca7…
09-04 21:46:31	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	37	99¢	$37	0x606a24…
08-28 11:33:15	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$30	0xbbe979…
08-27 15:07:51	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in August?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0xa18b6e…
08-27 13:46:55	Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in August?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x8a5502…
08-27 13:18:16	Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in August?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x23a40d…
08-27 06:16:13	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x610040…
08-26 23:24:36	Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in August?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xb4a818…
08-26 16:04:12	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,800 in August?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x9a27a4…
08-23 10:33:45	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0x502004…
08-21 10:01:27	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	35	99¢	$35	0x041c8d…
08-21 02:44:40	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x773c25…
08-18 16:55:57	Will Mistral be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x8a8eaf…
08-18 07:11:06	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	19	99¢	$18	0x704a3f…
08-16 20:18:09	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	0¢	$0	0xd41732…
08-16 19:56:13	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0x22f054…
08-13 23:41:04	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	BUY	37	97¢	$35	0xacb963…
08-13 00:54:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	No	BUY	36	100¢	$35	0xe10d8e…
08-11 23:50:12	Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	349	0¢	$0	0x4ff77c…
08-11 22:15:48	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x5e1d62…
08-11 17:25:46	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	63	0¢	$0	0x53c4d9…
08-11 17:25:46	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	16	0¢	$0	0x1071aa…
08-11 17:25:40	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x169300…
08-11 17:25:40	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x126fc7…
08-11 15:14:48	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	0	0¢	$0	0xa79801…
08-11 15:12:58	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x514566…
08-11 15:05:45	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xff7a6a…
08-11 15:05:45	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	28	0¢	$0	0x824e3b…
08-11 15:05:45	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x7b8a8c…
08-11 15:04:34	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xc88811…
08-11 15:04:33	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xdd73b4…
08-11 15:04:33	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0xcb88ad…
08-11 14:56:31	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x622624…
08-11 14:50:18	Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x27c0a4…
08-11 14:02:51	Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0xb164f5…
08-11 13:17:06	Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xc9cba8…
08-11 12:34:19	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	199	0¢	$0	0xb0c232…
08-11 12:34:19	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	17	0¢	$0	0xa76e55…
08-11 12:09:15	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0x73d8ce…
08-11 12:09:13	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x3caf55…
08-11 12:08:34	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xdfe3c1…
08-11 12:08:34	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x4d7cff…
08-11 12:03:49	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x260d50…
08-11 11:59:46	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xd3f0f5…
08-11 11:58:03	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0x78f742…
08-11 11:42:33	Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0x12a470…
08-11 11:12:58	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	220	0¢	$0	0x7b66e4…
08-11 11:05:33	Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x081990…
08-11 11:05:31	Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x9ca840…
08-09 21:33:57	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	BUY	37	99¢	$36	0x763013…
08-05 12:25:59	Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	BUY	36	99¢	$36	0x704391…
07-31 22:40:14	will ethereum dip to 1700 in july 2026 from july 6	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x1ca4f9…
07-31 09:24:21	GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0xc56c5b…
07-30 12:35:57	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	Yes	BUY	220	0¢	$0	0x45d11d…
07-30 03:10:18	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xce486a…
07-29 20:24:41	will nvda reach 224 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb0cc8e…
07-27 06:14:00	will ethereum dip to 1500 in july 2026 446 668	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x68cd97…
07-26 14:26:10	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xbe6890…
07-26 07:50:28	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528 175	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x0e6194…
07-25 15:50:55	will wti dip to 55 in july 2026 444	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1c60e8…
07-25 05:16:09	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5a2867…
07-23 16:00:52	will ethereum dip to 1200 in july 2026 853	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xccd493…
07-23 05:56:13	will ethereum dip to 1100 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xaf4720…
07-21 13:38:28	will wti dip to 55 in july 2026 444	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x243568…
07-21 12:52:04	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x1d508d…
07-20 15:40:51	will wti dip to 55 in july 2026 444	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6567b1…
07-17 15:29:31	will wti dip to 50 in july 2026 844	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x44e2c0…