Watchful-Membrane — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$27

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

62.8%

Resolved

235

Trades

450

lifetime

Volume

$1.10K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-04-24

last 11-06 10:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 86 days

Categories

Crypto

41% 55% +$9

Sports

35% 45% -$19

Other

22% 56% -$15

Politics

1% 100% +$0

Tech

1% 75% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes		+2	$1	31¢	$1	$0	11-06 10:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	18	$83	235	229	+6	No	+$1	06-01 05:28
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	23	$57	93	93	+0	Yes	+$3	07-17 03:41
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	5	$29	27	27	+0	No	+$1	05-21 11:49
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	4	$23	24	16	+9	Yes	+$3	07-02 19:13
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	15	$21	115	115	+0	open	—	05-28 14:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-27 07:05 UTC	5	$19	31	15	+16	Down	+$1	07-27 07:07
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$16	13	13	+0	No	+$6	07-17 08:14
Will France win on 2026-07-18?	8	$16	16	16	+0	No	$0	07-17 03:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	3	$15	255	5	+250	Up	-$5	05-12 07:55
Cavaliers vs. Pistons	7	$14	47	13	+35	Cavaliers	+$2	05-14 03:03
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-06-08 12:00 UTC	3	$13	16	8	+8	Up	+$3	06-08 13:17
Lakers vs. Rockets	2	$12	6	6	+0	Lakers	+$0	04-25 03:05
Will the Seattle Mariners clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?	3	$12	20	2	+18	No	-$10	07-29 02:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-27 07:10 UTC	3	$12	17	7	+10	Down	$0	07-27 07:14
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$11	20	0	+20	No	+$0	05-28 14:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-02 09:50 UTC	2	$11	6	6	+0	Up	+$1	07-02 09:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-22 07:30 UTC	2	$10	5	5	+0	Up	+$0	06-22 07:35
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	7	$10	14	14	+0	No	-$1	07-16 08:16
Cavaliers vs. Pistons	2	$10	5	5	+0	Cavaliers	+$0	05-18 03:20
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	1	$10	15	0	+15	Yes	+$5	06-16 12:35
HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-27 15:25 UTC	1	$10	11	0	+11	Up	+$1	08-27 15:25
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?	2	$10	12	0	+12	No	-$10	07-02 10:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	2	$10	130	0	+130	Down	-$5	05-12 09:07
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	2	$10	89	0	+89	No	-$5	06-13 13:23
Timberwolves vs. Spurs	1	$10	10	0	+10	Spurs	+$0	05-13 02:11
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?	2	$10	6	6	+0	No	+$0	05-20 09:36
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	08-22 03:19
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 16?	2	$10	5	5	+0	Down	$0	05-16 08:31
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$10	59	59	+0	No	$0	05-27 10:16
Lakers vs. Thunder	10	$10	12	12	+0	Thunder	$0	05-06 02:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 10:51:28	Ethereum Up or Down - November 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x4b7498…
11-06 10:51:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xfde392…
11-06 10:10:51	Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x3fa1b8…
11-06 10:10:37	Will Al Hazem SC win on 2026-11-06?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x9063dc…
11-06 10:04:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x3e3f64…
11-06 10:03:24	XRP Up or Down - November 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x9e4a81…
11-06 10:03:16	Solana Up or Down - November 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x184ede…
11-06 10:01:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x8c480f…
10-27 07:59:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0xb5f87f…
10-27 07:59:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x0b6de2…
10-27 04:32:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 28?	Yes	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x8db667…
10-27 04:32:03	Pan Pacific Open: Yulia Putintseva vs Maria Sakkari	Yulia Putintseva	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xaaeafd…
10-27 04:24:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x13e41f…
10-27 03:51:57	Warriors vs. Nuggets	Warriors	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x5ee574…
10-26 12:30:54	Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	No	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x05fd16…
10-26 12:30:27	Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xa4a527…
10-26 09:35:53	Bulls vs. Celtics	Bulls	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x2851e5…
10-26 09:34:21	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 28?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x0079f2…
10-26 09:30:12	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xc450f8…
10-26 07:52:20	Solana Up or Down - October 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xc0727f…
10-26 07:50:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x63c72d…
10-26 07:35:59	Solana Up or Down - October 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x6526ba…
10-26 07:02:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x17abbe…
10-26 06:57:39	Solana Up or Down - October 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xc5d4d1…
10-23 14:37:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x3c77bf…
10-22 13:59:41	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	1	54¢	$1	0x34d615…
10-21 12:38:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x377c47…
10-21 11:02:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xcef938…
10-21 11:02:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xede087…
10-21 10:59:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x8a1be7…
10-21 10:57:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xfad846…
10-21 10:56:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xfd7aa8…
10-21 10:50:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xf6a3e1…
10-21 10:50:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x4c8b01…
10-21 10:50:06	Will the San Antonio Spurs make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x0c99ec…
10-21 09:51:42	Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x0a9529…
10-21 09:49:38	Solana Up or Down - October 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x41ce7e…
10-21 09:10:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-21 09:10 UTC	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x913e0c…
10-21 04:12:56	Thunder vs. Spurs	Thunder	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x61df82…
10-20 09:18:51	Solana Up or Down - October 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x8a3317…
10-20 08:07:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x596745…
10-13 12:20:59	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 12:20 UTC	Down	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0xa5fed2…
10-12 09:40:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x7b6e33…
09-30 05:31:48	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0xca6fe2…
09-29 11:49:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 11:45 UTC	Down	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x34fcfd…
09-18 03:06:13	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x3d42c3…
09-18 03:05:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-18 03:05 UTC	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xbf8842…
09-18 02:58:58	Will the San Antonio Spurs make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xb8f3ba…
09-17 07:39:22	lol tes ig1 2026 09 17	Top Esports	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x421763…
09-17 07:31:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 07:30 UTC	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x81c267…
09-17 03:44:24	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 03:40 UTC	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xae651b…
08-27 15:29:00	Will SK Iberia 1999 vs. Jagiellonia Białystok end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	8	25¢	$2	0x6c0e37…
08-27 15:28:46	Will SK Iberia 1999 vs. Jagiellonia Białystok end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x029d7e…
08-27 15:27:58	Kuopion PS vs. Shamrock Rovers FC: Team to Advance	Shamrock Rovers FC	SELL	5	11¢	$1	0xf2a0a9…
08-27 15:27:04	Kuopion PS vs. Shamrock Rovers FC: Team to Advance	Shamrock Rovers FC	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x4b8627…
08-27 15:26:27	Kuopion PS vs. Shamrock Rovers FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x208302…
08-27 15:25:40	HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-27 15:25 UTC	Up	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x577f84…
08-27 13:38:21	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-27 13:35 UTC	Up	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x1da3b1…
08-22 07:33:27	DOGE Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-22 07:30 UTC	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x6e519b…
08-22 07:27:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-22 07:25 UTC	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x671e05…
08-22 06:55:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-22 07:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x2ee6a3…
08-22 06:43:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x1bcb06…
08-22 06:21:03	Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xaaf0a4…
08-22 03:19:16	Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x714acf…
08-18 12:02:37	Will PFK Levski Sofia win on 2026-08-18?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x53b4de…
08-18 06:34:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 06:30 UTC	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xe58a3a…
08-18 06:26:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 06:25 UTC	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xf9217b…
08-11 14:28:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-11 14:25 UTC	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x13e398…
08-04 12:07:18	Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xaa9f94…
08-04 12:06:06	Will GNK Dinamo Zagreb win on 2026-08-04?	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x20c7bb…
08-04 12:05:42	Will Las Vegas Aces win the 2026 WNBA Finals?	No	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x0a0b26…
08-04 12:05:00	wnba tor gsv 2026 08 04	Golden State Valkyries	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xa79a79…
08-04 08:45:48	Will GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. FK Kauno Žalgiris end in a draw?	No	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x9c8869…
08-03 08:49:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 08:45 UTC	Down	BUY	34	6¢	$2	0x6490e4…
08-03 08:49:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 08:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x0ad4b6…
08-03 06:23:45	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 06:20 UTC	Up	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x02515c…
08-03 06:23:20	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 06:20 UTC	Down	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0x0bb819…
08-03 03:29:39	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 03:35 UTC	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xaa056e…
08-03 03:29:26	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 03:30 UTC	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x4f12d5…
08-03 03:26:53	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 03:25 UTC	Down	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x6d665f…
08-03 03:26:35	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 03:25 UTC	Up	BUY	3	68¢	$2	0x36e107…
08-01 08:53:00	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 08:50 UTC	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xc1a19c…
08-01 08:50:06	HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 08:45 UTC	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x90fed3…
08-01 08:48:14	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 08:45 UTC	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xe696de…
08-01 08:45:56	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 08:45 UTC	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xd03dc0…
08-01 08:40:44	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 08:40 UTC	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xd2c3af…
08-01 08:39:45	Dogecoin Up or Down - August 1, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xd1d156…
08-01 08:15:48	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 08:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x0cfc18…
08-01 08:14:39	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x01e613…
08-01 08:13:48	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x644796…
08-01 08:07:48	HYPE Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 08:05 UTC	Down	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x66ebd7…
07-31 08:51:02	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x968f02…
07-31 08:50:54	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x366e12…
07-31 08:48:59	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x17de9b…
07-30 13:10:42	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x80b7fe…
07-29 02:54:18	Will the Seattle Mariners clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?	Yes	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0xd38510…
07-29 02:33:50	Will the Seattle Mariners clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?	Yes	SELL	2	48¢	$1	0xd03645…
07-29 02:33:30	Will the Seattle Mariners clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x6d2e65…
07-28 07:45:22	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x8554a2…
07-27 07:14:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-27 07:10 UTC	Down	SELL	7	86¢	$6	0xecef77…