Frivolous-Pennant — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$8

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

35.7%

Resolved

Trades

575

lifetime

Volume

$18.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$33

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-24

last 08-11 23:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

54% 50% $-0

Other

42% 0% $-2

Crypto

2% — —

Sports

1% 50% +$10

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

46 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	15	$1.3K	736	736	+0	open	—	04-25 23:15
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	7	$654	400	318	+82	open	—	08-09 04:19
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	5	$614	560	107	+452	open	—	08-11 23:04
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	8	$507	288	288	+0	open	—	04-30 21:16
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	2	$497	284	284	+0	open	—	07-09 04:26
us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	3	$473	260	260	+0	open	—	08-11 22:45
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	3	$422	220	220	+0	open	—	06-28 08:44
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	6	$411	210	210	+0	open	—	06-18 13:42
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	12	$398	282	282	+0	open	—	05-29 20:14
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	9	$370	380	352	+29	open	—	03-21 21:05
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	3	$353	190	190	+0	open	—	04-30 22:07
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	4	$340	175	175	+0	open	—	04-29 10:52
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	5	$334	393	16	+377	open	—	05-27 16:49
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	5	$329	176	176	+0	open	—	04-27 20:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	7	$305	190	141	+50	open	—	05-11 13:51
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	5	$301	190	161	+29	open	—	07-18 01:52
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	9	$298	230	230	+0	open	—	05-31 03:45
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	5	$249	182	182	+0	Yes	$-17	05-08 19:13
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	5	$224	120	120	+0	open	—	04-07 23:16
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	4	$224	127	127	+0	open	—	05-15 11:02
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	6	$223	120	120	+0	open	—	07-04 02:36
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	13	$218	223	223	+0	open	—	04-26 18:00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	3	$208	150	150	+0	open	—	07-25 21:03
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	7	$170	113	148	-35	open	—	06-03 04:50
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	6	$163	97	97	+0	open	—	04-01 12:10
iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	3	$161	90	90	+0	open	—	07-05 22:27
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	4	$155	132	132	+0	open	—	03-27 09:49
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	6	$145	175	175	+0	open	—	03-24 08:59
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	4	$136	140	39	+101	open	—	04-22 03:29
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	5	$133	81	81	+0	No	+$13	05-06 11:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-11 23:04:03	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	105	96¢	$101	0xf94ede…
08-11 22:58:24	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x83e827…
08-11 22:52:16	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	19	85¢	$16	0x69b2ee…
08-11 22:51:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	41	85¢	$35	0x846f9c…
08-11 22:45:51	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	SELL	34	99¢	$33	0x9886da…
08-11 22:45:49	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	SELL	260	98¢	$255	0xb81021…
08-11 22:43:19	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0x5a682c…
08-11 22:42:34	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	107	96¢	$103	0xc031e2…
08-11 22:32:33	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0x741b85…
08-11 20:49:13	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	SELL	36	99¢	$36	0x4939d1…
08-09 23:09:12	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	No	BUY	14	91¢	$13	0xc7917a…
08-09 15:29:06	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 16 20260807213124705	No	BUY	86	91¢	$78	0x4239fd…
08-09 12:42:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	180	56¢	$101	0x530573…
08-09 06:45:39	gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	No	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0x36bcef…
08-09 04:19:49	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	108	93¢	$101	0xe0179b…
08-09 04:14:52	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	81	93¢	$76	0xe7fbcb…
08-09 04:13:42	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	75	95¢	$71	0x1d152d…
08-09 04:11:15	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	No	SELL	79	88¢	$70	0x48922c…
08-09 03:48:06	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	27	93¢	$25	0x9440c0…
08-02 15:12:15	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	Yes	BUY	40	55¢	$22	0xbbeff6…
08-02 05:20:38	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	52	65¢	$34	0xa4ad24…
08-02 02:45:33	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	18	65¢	$12	0xe9e7b3…
08-02 01:39:51	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	60	59¢	$35	0xf7b296…
08-02 01:19:03	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	30	58¢	$17	0x5ce165…
08-02 01:17:03	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0x188a3d…
08-02 01:15:18	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	No	BUY	30	58¢	$17	0xaffca5…
07-31 21:58:56	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	114	71¢	$81	0xa1897c…
07-31 18:11:42	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	9	71¢	$6	0x2509b8…
07-31 15:04:42	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	9	71¢	$6	0xc0011c…
07-31 14:26:36	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	28¢	$20	0xa689ad…
07-31 14:24:14	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	22	91¢	$20	0x15b83d…
07-31 08:33:41	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	9	71¢	$6	0x3abd25…
07-31 03:28:51	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x0651f8…
07-27 03:35:01	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	No	BUY	9	73¢	$7	0xdd8ed7…
07-27 03:34:31	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	No	BUY	70	73¢	$51	0xfd142e…
07-27 03:26:27	will cxmts closing ipo market cap be at least 3t yuan 20260723150635976	No	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0xa78e1a…
07-27 03:24:37	will cxmts closing ipo market cap be at least 3t yuan 20260723150635976	No	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0xe65e94…
07-27 03:23:09	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0xba5f89…
07-27 03:14:10	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	24	91¢	$22	0x36f5ba…
07-27 02:28:09	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	56	91¢	$51	0xdd9ccd…
07-26 22:48:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	34	58¢	$20	0x07bf1d…
07-25 22:14:54	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 24 20260715194822044	No	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0xbd31d9…
07-25 21:04:13	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	230	86¢	$198	0x87e927…
07-25 21:03:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	75	99¢	$75	0xce78ca…
07-25 03:53:24	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x702995…
07-24 03:51:10	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	400	90¢	$360	0x2358cb…
07-24 03:48:25	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	BUY	40	76¢	$30	0x6228b1…
07-19 02:58:15	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	No	BUY	97	2¢	$2	0x50c88d…
07-19 02:58:03	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	No	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0x447710…
07-18 16:17:45	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0x4cd6f7…
07-18 01:52:16	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0x1cdedb…
07-16 20:52:43	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	No	BUY	70	77¢	$54	0x01ff6f…
07-16 15:05:20	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	60	73¢	$44	0xb984e5…
07-16 14:58:55	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	50	45¢	$22	0x55805b…
07-13 08:29:35	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	90	66¢	$59	0x591082…
07-13 08:21:52	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0xda3a9a…
07-12 01:15:41	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	40	56¢	$22	0x6a51e3…
07-10 14:33:04	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	BUY	96	86¢	$82	0x3b096f…
07-10 14:01:53	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	16	88¢	$14	0xb44ac8…
07-10 13:58:26	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	BUY	14	86¢	$12	0x52f7ee…
07-10 13:40:23	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	2	88¢	$2	0xa6d471…
07-10 12:14:07	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	57	88¢	$50	0x0844fc…
07-10 11:59:10	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	20	88¢	$18	0x0c3bb5…
07-10 11:49:04	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0xf17dcb…
07-10 10:14:07	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	11	88¢	$10	0x828e5c…
07-10 09:14:44	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	SELL	23	88¢	$21	0x1d4fd2…
07-09 05:25:19	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x9a76e9…
07-09 04:43:55	will samuel alito announce his retirement by july 15 2026	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0xf8a548…
07-09 04:27:26	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	No	BUY	90	82¢	$74	0xbb14c2…
07-09 04:26:44	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	284	87¢	$247	0x45ff8d…
07-07 02:23:32	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0x591da0…
07-07 01:01:20	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	58	88¢	$51	0xc906a5…
07-07 01:00:59	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	50	71¢	$36	0x75de3e…
07-07 00:58:19	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	87	88¢	$76	0x5b8caf…
07-05 22:32:31	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	160	77¢	$123	0xd1f4ca…
07-05 22:31:58	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	SELL	66	96¢	$63	0x2f1013…
07-05 22:27:28	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	No	SELL	62	98¢	$61	0xcb0147…
07-05 22:11:46	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	16	88¢	$14	0xa5b88b…
07-05 06:09:52	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	BUY	35	53¢	$18	0xac35b0…
07-05 05:07:20	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	32	28¢	$9	0xd19a5a…
07-05 04:33:22	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	BUY	0	53¢	$0	0xf983f5…
07-05 04:33:20	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	BUY	0	53¢	$0	0xabb3ce…
07-05 04:33:19	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	BUY	0	53¢	$0	0x53ca27…
07-05 03:48:14	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	60	62¢	$37	0x3297cc…
07-05 03:47:38	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	No	SELL	28	98¢	$27	0x948143…
07-05 03:46:28	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	8	28¢	$2	0x480fcf…
07-04 03:52:04	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0xe28031…
07-04 02:36:47	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	120	99¢	$119	0x092748…
07-03 23:44:07	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	SELL	40	0¢	$0	0x5c2cc6…
07-03 23:07:20	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	Yes	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0x178972…
07-03 21:01:22	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	50	63¢	$32	0xc6482e…
06-30 22:31:26	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	BUY	66	91¢	$60	0xd72e66…
06-28 08:44:46	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	284	88¢	$250	0x6faa89…
06-28 08:44:29	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	220	100¢	$220	0x34741f…
06-28 00:01:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0xc4a790…
06-27 23:58:28	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	50	33¢	$17	0xd56f91…
06-26 15:55:50	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	30	15¢	$5	0xc95b2b…
06-26 15:33:23	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	40	61¢	$24	0xd4b367…
06-20 22:01:01	starmer out by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	70	95¢	$66	0x671f41…
06-19 22:14:47	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0xb6bbbd…