Closed-Asymmetry — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$263

Unrealized P&L

-$14

Hit rate

20.6%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$8.79K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$117

Open exposure

$215

1 position

First seen

2026-01-04

last 11-11 00:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Other

66% 20% -$470

Politics

34% 50% +$207

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (11) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes		+605	$229	36¢	$215	-$14	11-11 00:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	20	$2.7K	14,279	3,534	+10,746	Yes	-$230	02-02 03:20
another us government shutdown by february 14	6	$2.2K	3,936	1,466	+2,470	No	-$660	02-13 09:27
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	2	$1.2K	4,370	4,370	+0	No	-$44	01-21 18:09
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	4	$995	1,700	1,095	+605	open	—	11-11 00:01
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	28	$784	632	632	+0	Yes	+$244	05-09 10:16
will wti reach 85 in july 2026	4	$769	718	718	+0	Yes	+$438	07-18 18:46
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	3	$46	116	54	+62	No	-$16	05-22 21:40
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	2	$32	23	23	+0	No	+$4	05-22 21:38
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	2	$21	362	362	+0	No	+$6	05-22 17:32
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	2	$15	471	471	+0	No	-$1	05-16 18:17
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?	1	$3	97	0	+97	No	-$3	05-11 21:27
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 England?	1	$2	2,000	0	+2,000	No	-$2	07-11 23:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-11 00:01:07	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	605	36¢	$218	0xd417ab…
11-10 12:09:27	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,095	35¢	$383	0x7e394b…
11-08 23:01:13	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	540	36¢	$194	0xccc274…
11-07 00:10:42	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	555	36¢	$200	0xaa4e9c…
07-18 18:46:52	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	281	84¢	$236	0xce760e…
07-18 18:46:52	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	284	84¢	$239	0x9b130e…
07-18 18:46:52	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	153	84¢	$128	0x19cab0…
07-12 20:26:47	will wti reach 85 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	718	23¢	$165	0x66477c…
07-11 23:21:58	Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 England?	Yes	BUY	2,000	0¢	$2	0x4130b2…
05-22 21:40:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	62	29¢	$18	0xc7a0da…
05-22 21:38:51	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	SELL	23	79¢	$18	0xb10e90…
05-22 21:37:27	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	23	60¢	$14	0xb4f478…
05-22 21:36:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	SELL	54	27¢	$15	0x07172f…
05-22 17:33:51	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	54	24¢	$13	0x8b2d78…
05-22 17:32:22	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	SELL	362	4¢	$14	0xed36b4…
05-16 18:19:50	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	362	2¢	$7	0x0002f9…
05-16 18:17:55	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	471	2¢	$7	0x6a969c…
05-16 18:16:52	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	471	2¢	$8	0x31ae16…
05-11 21:27:25	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	97	3¢	$3	0x468187…
05-09 10:16:31	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	370	100¢	$370	0x93955f…
05-08 18:55:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	370	38¢	$141	0x014561…
05-08 18:47:18	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	69	55¢	$38	0xdd0f7c…
05-08 18:47:18	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0x4dc98f…
05-08 18:47:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0xd77f16…
05-08 18:47:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	55¢	$2	0xaecf4d…
05-08 18:47:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	55¢	$2	0x759ace…
05-08 18:47:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	55¢	$10	0x5c190c…
05-08 18:47:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0x522448…
05-08 18:47:16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	55¢	$3	0x4769e5…
05-08 18:47:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	55¢	$5	0xff4c1c…
05-08 18:47:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	55¢	$5	0xee142f…
05-08 18:47:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	44	55¢	$24	0xebf9af…
05-08 18:47:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0xcc3f82…
05-08 18:47:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	55¢	$4	0xbfd687…
05-08 18:47:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0xb507dc…
05-08 18:47:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	55¢	$6	0xb284be…
05-08 18:47:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	55¢	$2	0x8be770…
05-08 18:47:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	55¢	$2	0x7e252e…
05-08 18:47:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	55¢	$2	0x6a50c5…
05-08 18:47:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	55¢	$2	0x531ce2…
05-08 18:47:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	55¢	$22	0x51ae9c…
05-08 18:47:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	55¢	$2	0x4cfb87…
05-08 18:47:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	55¢	$2	0x38bd99…
05-08 18:47:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	55¢	$2	0x320ce5…
05-08 18:47:14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0x25a40b…
05-08 18:46:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	158	55¢	$87	0xfb9793…
05-08 18:45:33	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	104	41¢	$43	0x5ef7a4…
02-13 09:27:59	another us government shutdown by february 14	Yes	BUY	1,341	36¢	$477	0x0c7014…
02-13 09:04:59	another us government shutdown by february 14	Yes	BUY	327	31¢	$100	0x28fe55…
02-13 07:16:01	another us government shutdown by february 14	Yes	BUY	400	25¢	$100	0xaea911…
02-13 07:13:25	another us government shutdown by february 14	Yes	BUY	402	25¢	$100	0xab9f17…
02-13 05:54:19	another us government shutdown by february 14	No	SELL	1,466	53¢	$777	0x3e14a1…
02-05 02:11:53	another us government shutdown by february 14	No	BUY	1,466	45¢	$660	0x182659…
02-02 03:20:08	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	BUY	7,000	0¢	$14	0x670711…
02-01 19:48:14	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	BUY	3,205	0¢	$6	0x4ded7c…
01-30 19:27:50	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	BUY	541	13¢	$70	0xf476b2…
01-30 16:59:38	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	SELL	710	10¢	$71	0xa11166…
01-29 23:11:48	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	BUY	710	52¢	$369	0x1b91f8…
01-29 23:03:44	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	SELL	697	53¢	$369	0x16a4fe…
01-29 22:52:24	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	BUY	226	53¢	$120	0xdb36a5…
01-29 22:48:36	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	BUY	471	50¢	$235	0x91e93d…
01-29 22:36:54	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	SELL	772	46¢	$355	0x0b86d5…
01-29 21:31:40	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	BUY	475	39¢	$185	0x0c82b9…
01-29 21:31:38	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	BUY	100	39¢	$39	0x91bb0a…
01-29 21:31:22	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	BUY	33	39¢	$13	0x32e93c…
01-29 21:31:20	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	BUY	10	39¢	$4	0x8638d7…
01-29 21:31:08	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	BUY	74	39¢	$29	0xa86cd3…
01-29 21:31:02	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	BUY	81	39¢	$31	0x65f3f8…
01-29 21:24:18	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	SELL	886	34¢	$301	0xa3c330…
01-29 00:21:22	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	BUY	418	37¢	$155	0xb60c5d…
01-28 23:37:16	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	SELL	468	33¢	$155	0x5ea2e2…
01-27 01:04:07	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	BUY	388	26¢	$101	0x155273…
01-26 14:56:13	will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	No	BUY	549	20¢	$110	0x814061…
01-21 18:09:26	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	4,370	13¢	$568	0x8613c4…
01-04 03:54:53	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	4,370	14¢	$612	0xfcee4f…