Vapid-Theology — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$12

Unrealized P&L

+$14

Hit rate

63.7%

Resolved

217

Trades

567

lifetime

Volume

$7.57K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-03 14:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 103 days

Categories

Other

59% 48% +$89

Politics

30% 51% -$29

Tech

5% 25% -$17

Crypto

5% 38% -$41

Sports

1% 100% +$10

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

34 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes		-64	-$19	8¢	$-5	+$14	05-02 08:54

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	16	$483	623	543	+80	No	-$38	08-07 05:03
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	5	$333	385	385	+0	Yes	+$7	04-17 16:55
will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	3	$216	118	118	+0	No	+$17	07-28 15:27
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	5	$183	231	231	+0	Yes	+$7	06-12 09:00
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	7	$175	153	97	+56	No	+$9	03-30 16:27
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	11	$175	235	235	+0	Yes	+$55	03-30 14:14
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	3	$172	98	98	+0	No	+$9	04-29 10:48
will the us accuse iran of oslo embassy attack	11	$164	175	175	+0	No	-$10	03-08 11:33
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	3	$156	125	123	+2	Yes	+$4	04-14 15:32
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	2	$139	78	78	+0	No	$0	04-21 14:57
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$133	194	194	+0	No	+$11	05-22 12:54
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	5	$131	343	343	+0	open	—	09-22 18:23
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	2	$121	108	54	+55	No	+$14	04-25 16:45
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	6	$119	222	222	+0	Yes	+$3	04-08 19:32
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	6	$117	101	101	+0	No	-$23	10-26 08:03
si hit 120 high jan 2026 313 822 269	6	$110	69	62	+7	No	-$3	01-30 20:02
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347	2	$109	89	89	+0	No	-$1	08-04 18:25
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	2	$101	77	77	+0	Yes	+$1	06-11 13:06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	2	$100	119	119	+0	open	—	07-09 04:22
us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	4	$98	100	100	+0	Yes	-$1	06-08 11:20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	9	$93	146	146	+0	Yes	+$5	06-17 09:08
untitled market 1 20260803235754057	3	$87	72	72	+0	No	+$12	08-08 15:06
Crude Oil all time high by April 30?	2	$84	48	48	+0	No	+$6	04-08 18:48
will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	5	$82	106	106	+0	No	+$2	04-07 11:07
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 15, 2027?	3	$80	100	100	+0	open	—	10-31 11:17
israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	2	$79	42	42	+0	Yes	+$2	02-28 06:23
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	3	$79	60	60	+0	No	+$20	03-31 17:42
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 31	3	$78	58	58	+0	No	+$23	03-14 11:37
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	2	$78	56	56	+1	Yes	+$0	04-21 16:14
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	9	$77	188	188	+0	Yes	-$22	07-01 19:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 14:11:49	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	56	44¢	$24	0x01d57a…
11-02 16:03:18	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	45¢	$25	0x2b0f5b…
10-31 11:17:30	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 15, 2027?	No	SELL	100	39¢	$39	0xc478fb…
10-31 09:04:06	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 15, 2027?	No	BUY	74	41¢	$30	0x2184f8…
10-31 09:04:04	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by January 15, 2027?	No	BUY	26	41¢	$11	0xa14354…
10-31 06:47:55	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	30	17¢	$5	0x874ee4…
10-31 06:47:31	Will the OpenAI spy be accused of working for China by December 31?	Yes	SELL	30	4¢	$1	0xa1eb32…
10-30 15:25:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	SELL	12	69¢	$9	0x46b946…
10-28 11:09:11	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0xb3377f…
10-26 08:03:21	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	66	26¢	$17	0xd4b54d…
10-26 05:56:47	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	SELL	12	54¢	$7	0x4f5af6…
10-24 18:17:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x63af64…
10-21 11:46:00	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	76¢	$6	0xae559f…
10-21 11:44:14	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	58	76¢	$44	0x979da0…
10-21 08:28:41	Will AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	20¢	$7	0x0f0aa2…
10-19 06:46:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0xcdf86c…
10-14 19:16:10	will the openai spy be accused of working for china by december 31 20261014120000000	Yes	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x88b9ed…
10-08 19:07:30	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 8?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x67885c…
10-07 18:15:13	Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 9?	No	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x584e59…
10-03 12:50:20	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x606589…
10-01 21:07:18	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	86¢	$30	0xf3710b…
10-01 13:29:53	Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	37	15¢	$6	0x020087…
10-01 05:12:47	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	56	38¢	$21	0x4232f3…
09-22 18:23:10	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	61	13¢	$8	0xbd0eda…
09-22 18:05:30	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xbe2595…
09-22 16:50:55	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	90¢	$13	0x1ed2fa…
09-22 15:13:03	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0x652c4f…
09-22 12:18:52	Will the next OpenAI GPT Sol model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x1ddf33…
09-22 10:52:55	Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of summit?	Yes	SELL	150	2¢	$3	0x686a5a…
09-21 12:44:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?	No	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x9e3b1e…
09-21 10:57:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?	Yes	SELL	56	10¢	$6	0xd8e52b…
09-21 10:38:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?	Yes	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x9d6fbb…
09-20 18:33:07	Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan by end of summit?	Yes	SELL	150	2¢	$3	0xd86e31…
09-17 21:10:51	trump endorses chinas claim to taiwan by end of summit 20260916	Yes	BUY	300	1¢	$3	0xc9c227…
09-17 11:08:45	OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15?	No	BUY	23	31¢	$7	0x867d6c…
09-17 08:22:18	Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x75d9f3…
09-16 17:48:16	Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	Yes	BUY	12	30¢	$4	0x4b7fdc…
09-16 14:55:33	Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	No	BUY	15	64¢	$10	0xb991f2…
09-15 14:21:00	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	26¢	$26	0xc11b31…
09-14 05:46:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	SELL	12	39¢	$5	0xbf4b88…
09-14 05:45:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x76f9fe…
09-13 23:15:13	Will AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	59¢	$21	0x482a6b…
09-13 02:08:57	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	11¢	$2	0x75490e…
09-12 13:07:01	Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	1¢	$0	0x962444…
09-12 09:13:22	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	11¢	$4	0x9d56f0…
09-12 08:56:22	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0xbe19e9…
09-09 18:44:03	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	57¢	$20	0xb626d7…
09-09 16:58:18	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	57¢	$0	0x08ced8…
09-07 13:59:54	Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	37	26¢	$10	0xf4b7b9…
09-06 18:59:40	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	282	20¢	$56	0x30bd9c…
09-05 18:15:58	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner	MOUZ	SELL	28	54¢	$15	0x04e452…
09-05 17:53:45	Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner	MOUZ	BUY	28	46¢	$13	0x30bbd1…
09-05 10:15:49	Will Lacy and Marlon have fewer than 100 Fortnite deaths during the marathon?	No	SELL	3	23¢	$1	0x034ae7…
09-05 09:02:42	Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?	No	SELL	12	85¢	$10	0xadb2b6…
09-03 19:40:34	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	282	21¢	$60	0xfe6b94…
09-03 07:59:45	Will Lacy and Marlon have fewer than 100 Fortnite deaths during the marathon?	No	BUY	3	56¢	$1	0x11b122…
08-28 16:03:24	will bitcoin dip to 77pt5k in august 2026	Yes	SELL	25	83¢	$21	0xbf8ac2…
08-28 16:01:24	will bitcoin dip to 77pt5k in august 2026	Yes	SELL	25	76¢	$19	0x21f91a…
08-27 18:02:57	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	30	35¢	$10	0x143250…
08-27 17:58:39	will wti reach 85 in august 2026 from august 26	Yes	SELL	45	69¢	$31	0x36ee05…
08-27 17:41:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-27 17:40 UTC	Down	SELL	12	58¢	$7	0x5ced34…
08-27 17:40:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-27 17:40 UTC	Down	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x9b0be9…
08-27 15:45:06	will bitcoin dip to 77pt5k in august 2026	Yes	BUY	50	41¢	$20	0x6d4d87…
08-27 14:29:54	will wti reach 85 in august 2026 from august 26	Yes	BUY	45	52¢	$23	0x4b49c6…
08-27 14:25:19	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	133	1¢	$2	0x335667…
08-25 14:57:34	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	51¢	$26	0xce4d07…
08-25 09:40:39	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0xcf23c7…
08-24 17:43:16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	133	2¢	$3	0xa68ccd…
08-24 17:36:16	Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xc94a11…
08-24 17:35:46	Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xbc6386…
08-24 17:25:58	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	24¢	$24	0x4c394b…
08-20 14:47:04	nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	22	33¢	$7	0xe167f8…
08-19 20:05:22	further substantive progress on the riemann hypothesis by december 31 2026 20260812121554606	Yes	BUY	74	27¢	$20	0x76869a…
08-12 20:33:15	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 20 20260808192512604	Yes	SELL	11	89¢	$10	0x1bc47e…
08-12 16:12:54	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 26 20260808192512606	No	SELL	32	14¢	$4	0x9a6c8d…
08-12 16:07:34	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 21 20260808192512605	Yes	SELL	7	72¢	$5	0x19592f…
08-12 15:53:16	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 14 20260809003127366	Yes	SELL	35	14¢	$5	0xab698d…
08-12 15:43:55	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 14 20260809003127366	Yes	BUY	35	14¢	$5	0xb2d8a7…
08-12 15:11:27	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 21 20260808192512605	Yes	SELL	28	72¢	$20	0xcafaf3…
08-10 08:11:37	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 20 20260808192512604	Yes	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x9efe9e…
08-09 15:25:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x82c2ea…
08-09 14:57:31	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 26 20260808192512606	No	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0xab987d…
08-09 14:24:33	will kai and speed finish their minecraft marathon by august 21 20260808192512605	Yes	BUY	35	57¢	$20	0xe71a34…
08-08 21:07:12	will kai or speed be eliminated by lava 20260807142948639	Yes	SELL	25	96¢	$24	0x389e27…
08-08 20:08:27	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	SELL	29	94¢	$27	0xcb8ed2…
08-08 16:51:18	will kai or speed be eliminated by lava 20260807142948639	Yes	BUY	25	65¢	$16	0xbacb70…
08-08 15:06:55	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	SELL	72	69¢	$49	0xa232d1…
08-08 13:23:39	Will Kai and Speed have 90 or more total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?	Yes	SELL	75	53¢	$40	0x312292…
08-08 10:20:33	Will Kai and Speed have 90 or more total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?	Yes	BUY	40	27¢	$11	0xe39d0f…
08-08 10:20:33	Will Kai and Speed have 90 or more total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?	Yes	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0x655299…
08-08 10:17:55	Will Kai and Speed have 90 or more total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x31cdb2…
08-08 09:07:33	Will Kai and Speed have 90 or more total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x6601f3…
08-08 09:00:19	Will Kai and Speed have 90 or more total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?	Yes	BUY	15	27¢	$4	0x7f7539…
08-07 19:47:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-07 19:45 UTC	Down	SELL	12	35¢	$4	0xc9d228…
08-07 19:45:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-07 19:45 UTC	Down	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x28e5ca…
08-07 19:40:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-07 19:40 UTC	Down	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xbaf433…
08-07 19:38:03	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	29	76¢	$22	0xc82da1…
08-07 05:03:40	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	80	13¢	$10	0xdf0ad6…
08-06 16:26:02	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	Yes	SELL	306	1¢	$3	0x74df91…
08-06 16:16:57	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xfd1f70…