Lumpy-Lantern — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

65.6%

Resolved

161

Trades

203

lifetime

Volume

$19.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$95

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-24

last 10-30 15:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 108 days

Categories

Crypto

45% 89% $0

Other

25% 58% -$24

Sports

19% 34% +$29

Politics

11% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Danielle Collins win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	2	$260	130	130	+0	No	$0	05-06 04:57
Will Paula Badosa win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	2	$260	130	130	+0	No	$0	05-06 05:14
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	2	$260	131	131	+0	open	—	05-07 05:03
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	2	$260	131	131	+0	No	$0	05-07 03:55
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$253	127	127	+0	No	$0	03-03 03:35
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$251	126	126	+0	No	$0	02-13 04:54
will france win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	2	$251	126	126	+0	No	+$0	02-10 09:38
Will the Calgary Flames win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	2	$250	125	125	+0	No	$0	02-07 09:53
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	2	$246	123	123	+0	No	$0	05-18 08:10
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	2	$246	124	124	+0	open	—	05-23 04:07
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026?	2	$246	123	123	+0	open	—	05-19 06:25
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026?	2	$244	122	122	+0	open	—	05-19 06:48
Will Jan-Lennard Struff win the 2026 Men's French Open?	2	$244	122	122	+0	No	$0	04-11 12:38
Will Sporting Kansas City win the 2026 MLS Cup?	2	$240	120	120	+0	No	$0	05-09 12:35
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	2	$240	121	121	+0	open	—	05-11 11:32
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	2	$238	120	120	+0	open	—	05-11 11:49
will will zalatoris win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$237	119	119	+0	No	$0	03-07 05:16
will brian harman win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$237	119	119	+0	No	$0	03-07 05:39
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$237	118	118	+0	No	$0	01-24 03:46
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$236	118	118	+0	No	$0	01-24 04:08
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$236	118	118	+0	No	$0	01-24 04:27
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	2	$236	119	119	+0	open	—	05-24 09:45
Will San Marino be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	2	$235	118	118	+0	No	$0	04-25 08:45
Will Solana Sierra be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?	2	$224	112	112	+0	No	$0	05-16 07:27
Will Portland Timbers win the 2026 MLS Cup?	2	$224	112	112	+0	open	—	05-26 07:06
Will Norway be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	2	$223	112	112	+0	No	$0	04-25 09:09
will nicolai hojgaard win the 2026 masters tournament	2	$222	112	112	+0	No	$0	03-24 03:50
Will Austin FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?	2	$222	112	112	+0	No	$0	05-26 07:41
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$221	111	111	+0	No	$0	03-18 08:56
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$220	112	112	+0	No	$0	03-18 09:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 15:19:54	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $215 in October?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0xcf6c76…
10-30 15:19:39	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $220 in October?	No	BUY	79	100¢	$79	0x900413…
09-25 12:24:23	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0xaf9f41…
08-11 06:23:25	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xc726d1…
07-03 10:33:19	Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	15	27¢	$4	0x09cfca…
06-30 09:59:32	will solana dip to 50 in june 2026	No	BUY	104	100¢	$104	0x0afedc…
05-31 07:31:10	Will Solana dip to $70 in May?	No	BUY	75	100¢	$75	0x4346b9…
05-31 07:28:21	Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers	BUY	16	52¢	$8	0x314142…
05-30 11:13:02	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?	No	BUY	83	100¢	$83	0x3b58a1…
05-30 11:11:10	Will Lucian Isar be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xde2aec…
05-30 11:06:45	Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	SELL	98	99¢	$97	0xcda340…
05-30 10:46:22	Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	BUY	98	99¢	$97	0x89bc57…
05-30 10:44:35	Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	SELL	97	99¢	$97	0x92f0b2…
05-30 10:27:35	Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	BUY	97	100¢	$97	0x64bb74…
05-29 04:54:20	Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $370-$380 on the final day of trading of the week of May 25 – May 29?	No	BUY	85	100¢	$85	0x5d180c…
05-29 04:46:44	Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x5ff021…
05-28 12:11:27	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28?	No	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0xb0431d…
05-28 12:07:36	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 28?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xe21281…
05-27 09:31:48	Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 27?	No	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0x16a6e8…
05-27 09:28:09	Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series?	No	SELL	111	99¢	$110	0x728e40…
05-27 09:12:00	Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series?	No	BUY	111	100¢	$110	0x1e61a9…
05-26 07:51:47	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26?	No	BUY	110	100¢	$110	0xae0a58…
05-26 07:44:38	Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Nikola Bartunkova	Nikola Bartunkova	BUY	7	26¢	$2	0xf50ca3…
05-26 07:41:08	Will Austin FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	SELL	112	99¢	$111	0x119a54…
05-26 07:08:06	Will Austin FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	BUY	112	100¢	$111	0x02a688…
05-26 07:06:45	Will Portland Timbers win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	SELL	112	100¢	$112	0x72a015…
05-26 06:33:42	Will Portland Timbers win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	BUY	112	100¢	$112	0x3afcad…
05-25 03:41:57	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25?	Yes	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0xefa410…
05-25 03:31:48	T20 Blast: Kent vs Sussex	Sussex	BUY	12	51¢	$6	0xdc4aa5…
05-24 09:51:10	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24?	No	BUY	118	100¢	$118	0xab8417…
05-24 09:45:21	Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	119	99¢	$118	0xda09f9…
05-24 09:26:34	Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	119	99¢	$118	0x6edc6e…
05-24 09:22:29	Avalanche vs. Golden Knights	Avalanche	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x94e8ff…
05-23 04:10:25	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23?	Yes	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0xa793d6…
05-23 04:07:53	Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	124	99¢	$123	0x33d59a…
05-23 03:51:28	Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	124	99¢	$123	0xa8f479…
05-23 03:48:06	Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs	BUY	14	58¢	$8	0x8432b7…
05-22 04:15:51	Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $6.00 Week of May 18 2026?	No	BUY	132	99¢	$131	0x116a0b…
05-21 11:56:37	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21?	Yes	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0x810692…
05-20 12:24:25	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20?	No	BUY	131	100¢	$130	0x5abff2…
05-19 07:03:17	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19?	No	BUY	115	100¢	$114	0x590dbd…
05-19 06:57:23	Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals	Boston Red Sox	BUY	16	52¢	$8	0x73894d…
05-19 06:48:10	Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	SELL	122	100¢	$122	0x63c004…
05-19 06:26:46	Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	122	100¢	$122	0x5107fd…
05-19 06:25:15	Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	SELL	123	100¢	$123	0xd10710…
05-19 06:09:14	Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0xb8ae32…
05-18 08:12:58	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18?	No	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0x27ea96…
05-18 08:10:05	Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	123	100¢	$123	0xfd95c8…
05-18 07:45:53	Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0x512eda…
05-18 07:39:43	LoL: Estral Esports vs RED Academy (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante Playoffs	RED Academy	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x896bd5…
05-17 12:35:41	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17?	Yes	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0x3b3ece…
05-16 07:32:55	Will Germany win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	112	100¢	$112	0x9efba7…
05-16 07:27:58	Will Solana Sierra be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?	No	SELL	112	100¢	$112	0x54769f…
05-16 06:53:26	Will Solana Sierra be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?	No	BUY	112	100¢	$112	0x9aa52f…
05-16 06:50:20	LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs	G2 Esports	BUY	12	69¢	$8	0xded362…
05-15 06:44:12	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $248 Week of May 11 2026?	No	BUY	85	100¢	$85	0x7f4a7e…
05-15 06:41:33	Will Meta (META) finish week of May 11 above $570?	Yes	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x7fb2c4…
05-13 07:51:27	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 13?	Yes	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0x1452d3…
05-12 12:34:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 12?	No	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0xaffcf8…
05-11 11:52:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	No	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0xda5182…
05-11 11:49:39	Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	120	99¢	$119	0x8b07ed…
05-11 11:34:05	Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	120	99¢	$119	0x2926d9…
05-11 11:32:37	Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	121	99¢	$120	0x434571…
05-11 11:15:37	Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	121	99¢	$120	0xa68195…
05-10 08:21:00	Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 4-10?	No	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0xd4b15a…
05-09 12:38:41	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 9?	Yes	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0x739024…
05-09 12:35:51	Will Sporting Kansas City win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	SELL	120	100¢	$120	0x0a4015…
05-09 12:20:25	Will Sporting Kansas City win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	BUY	120	100¢	$120	0x2d549f…
05-09 12:15:45	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Arthur Fils	Arthur Fils	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xbd033f…
05-08 04:05:57	Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of May 4 above $380?	Yes	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0xb79c92…
05-07 05:06:10	Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 7?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x174705…
05-07 05:05:21	Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 7?	No	BUY	113	100¢	$112	0xa644c8…
05-07 05:03:57	Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	131	99¢	$130	0xebe523…
05-07 03:57:55	Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	131	99¢	$130	0x61f754…
05-07 03:55:19	Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	SELL	131	99¢	$130	0x732ce9…
05-07 03:37:07	Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	131	99¢	$130	0x1a1344…
05-06 05:18:32	Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 6?	No	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0x794c3a…
05-06 05:14:56	Will Paula Badosa win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	No	SELL	130	100¢	$130	0x8e6d07…
05-06 04:59:08	Will Paula Badosa win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	No	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0x0e2e7c…
05-06 04:57:40	Will Danielle Collins win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	No	SELL	130	100¢	$130	0xd78833…
05-06 03:37:10	Will Danielle Collins win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	No	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0xa6fb10…
05-05 04:03:32	Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 5?	Yes	BUY	130	99¢	$129	0xc133b6…
05-04 07:16:40	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 4?	No	BUY	129	100¢	$128	0xc8600b…
05-03 06:50:22	Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 27-May 3?	No	BUY	128	100¢	$128	0x16fa63…
05-01 10:58:38	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 Week of April 27 2026?	No	BUY	129	100¢	$128	0x98de33…
04-30 10:48:34	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	BUY	128	100¢	$128	0xc57d4e…
04-29 08:02:20	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?	No	BUY	128	100¢	$128	0xad64d5…
04-28 08:58:32	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	No	BUY	128	100¢	$128	0xd92acc…
04-27 08:23:24	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	No	BUY	128	100¢	$128	0xaf9bb1…
04-26 04:20:56	Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 April 20-26?	No	BUY	115	100¢	$115	0x9ac362…
04-26 03:45:06	Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	BUY	13	56¢	$7	0xb8685a…
04-25 09:25:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 25?	Yes	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0x190cbb…
04-25 09:09:50	Will Norway be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	SELL	112	100¢	$111	0xa8a25a…
04-25 08:53:06	Will Norway be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	BUY	112	100¢	$111	0x0d81b1…
04-25 08:49:22	Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	BUY	11	56¢	$6	0x567219…
04-25 08:45:22	Will San Marino be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	SELL	118	100¢	$118	0x8c8734…
04-25 07:45:20	Will San Marino be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final?	No	BUY	118	100¢	$118	0x9959b8…
04-24 08:27:50	bitcoin above 82k on april 24	No	BUY	118	100¢	$118	0x29af0c…
04-23 07:25:04	ethereum above 2100 on april 23	Yes	BUY	118	100¢	$118	0xfa4226…
04-23 06:20:48	Savannah: Franco Roncadelli vs Nishesh Basavareddy	Franco Roncadelli	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x918857…