Realized P&L (30d)
-$31
Unrealized P&L
+$2
Hit rate
16.4%
Resolved (30d)
8
Trades (30d)
19
3,182 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$138
$19.4K lifetime
Avg / trade
$6
Open exposure
$140
15 positions
First seen
2026-02-24
last 10-22 17:52
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 116 days
Categories
Other
53% 22% -$503
Crypto
27% 49% -$150
Sports
14% 30% -$100
Politics
5% 23% -$185
Tech
0% 0% -$42
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
15 active days in 12wk • peak 107 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026? No +26 $20 84¢ $22 +$2 10-21 17:03
Iran leadership change by December 31? No -20 -$14 92¢ $-18 -$4 05-10 09:24
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +17 $10 76¢ $13 +$3 10-21 17:24
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Yes +20 $10 62¢ $13 +$3 10-22 17:52
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? No +11 $10 96¢ $11 +$1 10-21 17:02
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? Yes +26 $10 40¢ $11 +$1 10-20 06:25
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? No +12 $10 87¢ $10 +$0 10-21 17:05
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes +22 $10 44¢ $10 $0 10-21 17:11
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? No +14 $10 72¢ $10 $0 10-22 17:46
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No -7 -$7 98¢ $-7 -$1 08-15 08:57
Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? Yes +19 $5 29¢ $5 +$0 10-21 17:10
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes +12 $5 42¢ $5 +$0 10-21 17:27
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? No +8 $3 30¢ $2 -$1 10-22 17:50
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch? Yes +15 $3 14¢ $2 -$1 10-21 17:08
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31? Yes +9 $2 10¢ $1 -$1 10-21 17:30