Confused-Dad — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.99K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

93.1%

Resolved

341

Trades

621

lifetime

Volume

$478.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$771

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-22

last 08-09 22:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 40 days

Categories

Crypto

81% 95% +$2,138

Politics

17% 39% -$2,728

Other

1% 18% -$1,407

Sports

0% 25% +$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	14	$15.8K	11,354	7,854	+3,500	No	+$1,415	05-31 23:38
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	19	$14.9K	41,375	6,375	+35,001	Yes	-$3,479	06-17 19:14
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	31	$14.2K	12,177	12,077	+100	No	+$490	05-26 21:56
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	4	$10.9K	5,755	5,755	+0	No	+$132	06-03 16:36
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	11	$8.9K	7,081	7,081	+0	Yes	-$1,960	06-14 04:49
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	17	$8.9K	6,329	6,049	+280	No	+$400	05-26 22:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 16:05 UTC	2	$2.8K	2,828	0	+2,828	Down	+$28	08-01 16:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 20:50 UTC	1	$2.5K	2,533	0	+2,533	Down	+$33	08-03 20:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 21:55 UTC	2	$2.5K	2,529	0	+2,529	Up	+$29	08-01 21:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 21:50 UTC	2	$2.5K	2,521	0	+2,521	Down	+$30	08-01 21:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 22:40 UTC	3	$2.4K	2,463	0	+2,463	Up	+$25	08-02 22:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 22:50 UTC	1	$2.4K	2,436	0	+2,436	Down	+$36	08-02 22:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 21:05 UTC	2	$2.4K	2,426	0	+2,426	Down	+$26	08-02 21:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	2	$2.4K	2,440	0	+2,440	Down	+$40	08-03 19:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-01 21:10 UTC	2	$2.4K	2,444	0	+2,444	Down	+$44	08-01 21:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 21:40 UTC	1	$2.4K	2,402	0	+2,402	Up	+$2	08-02 21:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	2	$2.4K	2,462	0	+2,462	Up	+$63	08-04 21:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 21:00 UTC	1	$2.4K	2,414	0	+2,414	Up	+$24	08-02 21:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 19:25 UTC	3	$2.3K	2,390	0	+2,390	Up	+$50	08-03 19:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 20:55 UTC	2	$2.3K	2,323	0	+2,323	Up	+$23	08-02 20:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 21:00 UTC	2	$2.3K	2,327	0	+2,327	Down	+$27	08-04 21:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 19:20 UTC	2	$2.3K	2,324	0	+2,324	Up	+$24	08-03 19:24
trump declassifies new ufo files by june 15	10	$2.2K	2,276	2,276	+0	Yes	+$387	06-08 19:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	2	$2.2K	2,260	0	+2,260	Up	+$29	08-01 19:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 19:15 UTC	2	$2.2K	2,261	0	+2,261	Up	+$61	08-03 19:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-02 20:25 UTC	2	$2.2K	2,235	0	+2,235	Down	+$35	08-02 20:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 19:25 UTC	1	$2.2K	2,193	0	+2,193	Down	+$33	07-31 19:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-31 19:20 UTC	1	$2.1K	2,165	0	+2,165	Down	+$35	07-31 19:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 18:40 UTC	2	$2.1K	2,175	0	+2,175	Down	+$70	08-03 18:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 19:00 UTC	2	$2.1K	2,104	0	+2,104	Up	+$32	08-03 19:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-09 22:16:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 22:15 UTC	Up	BUY	9	21¢	$2	0x177482…
08-09 22:14:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 22:10 UTC	Down	BUY	1,846	3¢	$48	0xd96cae…
08-09 22:14:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 22:10 UTC	Down	BUY	10,478	1¢	$105	0xa1235c…
08-09 22:14:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 22:10 UTC	Down	BUY	560	6¢	$31	0x2861e0…
08-09 22:02:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 22:00 UTC	Down	BUY	803	4¢	$29	0x8acda7…
08-09 22:01:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 22:00 UTC	Down	BUY	107	12¢	$13	0x081168…
08-09 21:44:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 21:40 UTC	Down	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0x395b30…
08-09 21:43:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 21:40 UTC	Up	SELL	31	78¢	$24	0x622f20…
08-09 21:43:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 21:40 UTC	Up	BUY	31	61¢	$19	0x4cc050…
08-09 21:38:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 21:35 UTC	Down	BUY	1,347	1¢	$14	0x225090…
08-09 21:35:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 21:30 UTC	Up	SELL	261	99¢	$259	0x00cdc1…
08-09 21:34:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 21:30 UTC	Up	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x937a22…
08-09 21:34:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 21:30 UTC	Up	BUY	250	32¢	$80	0xe7a094…
08-09 21:28:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-09 21:25 UTC	Down	BUY	67	64¢	$43	0x0f800f…
08-05 22:24:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 22:20 UTC	Down	BUY	246	98¢	$240	0xa4ad4c…
08-05 22:19:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	243	97¢	$236	0xa76623…
08-05 22:10:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 22:05 UTC	Up	BUY	7,000	1¢	$70	0x2d6b16…
08-05 22:09:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 22:05 UTC	Up	BUY	618	97¢	$600	0x79c359…
08-05 22:04:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 22:00 UTC	Down	BUY	606	99¢	$600	0x51f860…
08-05 21:54:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 21:50 UTC	Up	BUY	612	98¢	$600	0x8ef2cb…
08-05 21:44:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 21:40 UTC	Up	BUY	28	88¢	$25	0x4c3436…
08-05 21:44:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 21:40 UTC	Up	BUY	630	95¢	$600	0x91c24a…
08-05 21:40:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 21:35 UTC	Down	BUY	16	98¢	$16	0x27a779…
08-05 21:39:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 21:35 UTC	Down	BUY	612	98¢	$600	0x5c6ab5…
08-05 21:34:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 21:30 UTC	Up	BUY	612	98¢	$600	0x3a2c98…
08-05 21:29:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 21:25 UTC	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xfeff6e…
08-05 21:29:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 21:25 UTC	Down	BUY	604	96¢	$580	0x1912a4…
08-05 21:14:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	556	99¢	$550	0x71d4fc…
08-05 21:09:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 21:05 UTC	Down	BUY	513	97¢	$500	0x58ec4a…
08-05 21:04:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 21:00 UTC	Down	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x0e42a4…
08-05 21:04:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 21:00 UTC	Down	BUY	512	98¢	$500	0xd503ea…
08-05 20:55:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 20:50 UTC	Up	BUY	505	99¢	$500	0xdb87d5…
08-05 20:44:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	515	97¢	$500	0x6b338d…
08-05 20:28:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 20:25 UTC	Down	BUY	535	99¢	$530	0x30487d…
08-05 20:19:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 20:15 UTC	Down	BUY	406	99¢	$400	0x4a3456…
08-05 20:14:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Up	BUY	525	99¢	$520	0xdd2902…
08-05 19:49:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 19:45 UTC	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xca48ee…
08-05 19:49:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 19:45 UTC	Down	BUY	510	98¢	$500	0x9e5502…
08-05 19:44:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	505	99¢	$500	0x7b1380…
08-05 19:19:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 19:15 UTC	Down	BUY	503	97¢	$490	0x99a01d…
08-05 17:54:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 17:50 UTC	Up	BUY	485	99¢	$480	0xbbd1de…
08-05 17:49:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 17:45 UTC	Up	BUY	485	99¢	$480	0x07dba9…
08-05 17:14:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-05 17:10 UTC	Down	BUY	463	97¢	$450	0x70b5bb…
08-04 22:28:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 22:25 UTC	Up	BUY	470	99¢	$465	0x119c5a…
08-04 22:14:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 22:10 UTC	Up	BUY	464	97¢	$450	0xc6245f…
08-04 22:05:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 22:00 UTC	Down	BUY	533	78¢	$415	0x6da4e3…
08-04 22:05:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 22:00 UTC	Down	BUY	3,437	46¢	$1,585	0x29a833…
08-04 21:59:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	404	99¢	$400	0x71f444…
08-04 21:59:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2,058	97¢	$2,000	0xfd7942…
08-04 21:54:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 21:50 UTC	Down	BUY	434	99¢	$430	0xfa9485…
08-04 21:49:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 21:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2,021	99¢	$2,000	0x846323…
08-04 21:39:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 21:35 UTC	Up	BUY	2,025	99¢	$2,000	0xd599ba…
08-04 21:34:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 21:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2,020	99¢	$2,000	0xe1c80d…
08-04 21:04:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 21:00 UTC	Down	BUY	307	98¢	$300	0x646124…
08-04 21:04:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 21:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2,020	99¢	$2,000	0x7ecd38…
08-04 20:59:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2,020	99¢	$2,000	0xe47d2d…
08-04 20:54:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 20:50 UTC	Down	BUY	2,020	99¢	$2,000	0x43e205…
08-04 20:49:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 20:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2,020	99¢	$2,000	0x9c3092…
08-04 20:29:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 20:25 UTC	Up	BUY	2,086	96¢	$2,000	0x2f2790…
08-04 20:09:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 20:05 UTC	Up	BUY	2,036	98¢	$2,000	0xed84f8…
08-04 19:54:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 19:50 UTC	Down	BUY	2,020	99¢	$2,000	0x028dca…
08-04 19:24:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2,020	99¢	$2,000	0x9aed91…
08-04 19:04:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 19:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2,020	99¢	$2,000	0xb8710a…
08-04 18:50:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 18:45 UTC	Up	BUY	950	99¢	$940	0xd284c9…
08-04 18:39:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 18:35 UTC	Down	BUY	2,020	99¢	$2,000	0xda9aa5…
08-04 18:34:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 18:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2,020	99¢	$2,000	0x0b08bd…
08-04 18:24:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	126	99¢	$125	0x578f98…
08-04 18:24:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1,605	99¢	$1,589	0x1e4c68…
08-04 17:54:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 17:50 UTC	Down	BUY	2,020	99¢	$2,000	0x2abffb…
08-04 16:44:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 16:40 UTC	Down	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0xae58b5…
08-04 16:43:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-04 16:40 UTC	Down	BUY	2,037	98¢	$2,000	0x21b887…
08-04 16:19:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2,020	99¢	$2,000	0xd82142…
08-03 21:34:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 21:30 UTC	Down	BUY	1,010	99¢	$1,000	0xc03106…
08-03 21:14:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 21:10 UTC	Down	BUY	1,215	99¢	$1,203	0x7a220a…
08-03 21:04:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 21:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2,020	99¢	$2,000	0xd87b3a…
08-03 20:54:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 20:50 UTC	Down	BUY	2,533	99¢	$2,500	0xac257a…
08-03 20:49:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 20:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2,020	99¢	$2,000	0x59feac…
08-03 20:34:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 20:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2,020	99¢	$2,000	0xe8264d…
08-03 20:24:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 20:20 UTC	Down	BUY	2,020	99¢	$2,000	0xa95983…
08-03 19:59:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2,020	99¢	$2,000	0xa2c3c9…
08-03 19:54:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1,093	99¢	$1,082	0x08a094…
08-03 19:49:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	404	99¢	$400	0x767a53…
08-03 19:49:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2,036	98¢	$2,000	0xc4f76c…
08-03 19:44:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 19:40 UTC	Up	BUY	2,020	99¢	$2,000	0x90c5f7…
08-03 19:29:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 19:25 UTC	Up	BUY	41	99¢	$40	0xb26511…
08-03 19:29:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 19:25 UTC	Up	BUY	834	96¢	$800	0x1147b2…
08-03 19:29:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 19:25 UTC	Up	BUY	1,515	99¢	$1,500	0x7f7a8b…
08-03 19:24:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 19:20 UTC	Up	BUY	808	99¢	$800	0xa8615b…
08-03 19:24:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 19:20 UTC	Up	BUY	1,516	99¢	$1,500	0x23ff91…
08-03 19:19:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 19:15 UTC	Up	BUY	230	87¢	$200	0xd7b07b…
08-03 19:19:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 19:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2,030	99¢	$2,000	0x3c50b7…
08-03 19:14:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 19:10 UTC	Up	BUY	2,028	99¢	$2,000	0xdc48de…
08-03 19:04:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 19:00 UTC	Up	BUY	73	98¢	$72	0xfe7e97…
08-03 19:04:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 19:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2,031	98¢	$2,000	0x1727e3…
08-03 18:59:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 18:55 UTC	Down	BUY	2,020	99¢	$2,000	0x7827c2…
08-03 18:49:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 18:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2,020	99¢	$2,000	0xd78dc7…
08-03 18:44:38	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 18:40 UTC	Down	BUY	111	95¢	$105	0xe4b49b…
08-03 18:44:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 18:40 UTC	Down	BUY	2,065	97¢	$2,000	0x07d233…
08-03 18:39:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 18:35 UTC	Down	BUY	2,020	99¢	$2,000	0x44cadc…
08-03 18:34:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-03 18:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2,020	99¢	$2,000	0x7075ee…