Graceful-Blowhole — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$3.04K

Unrealized P&L

-$269

Hit rate

11.1%

Resolved

Trades

622

lifetime

Volume

$4.56K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$226

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-15

last 08-30 16:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 13 days

Categories

Other

44% 20% -$1,215

Tech

36% 20% -$814

Politics

20% 0% -$1,015

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (17) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	OpenAI		+1,920	$153	8¢	$144	-$9	08-30 16:29
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+3,800	$342	2¢	$82	-$260	06-09 19:47

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	8	$535	5,066	0	+5,066	No	-$535	04-27 10:16
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	1	$525	0	1,500	-1,500	Yes	-$975	02-28 08:01
will xai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 497	24	$503	3,017	3,017	+0	No	-$89	02-09 19:52
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	11	$450	2,500	0	+2,500	No	-$450	05-06 01:47
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	1	$342	3,800	0	+3,800	open	—	06-09 19:47
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500?	5	$341	2,588	0	+2,588	No	-$341	04-27 15:50
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	1	$304	800	0	+800	No	-$304	05-18 18:37
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?	4	$288	300	300	+0	Yes	+$156	06-09 18:07
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	39	$262	2,804	2,804	+0	No	-$24	06-07 05:02
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	250	$239	15,172	0	+15,172	No	-$239	04-30 12:49
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	4	$153	1,920	0	+1,920	open	—	08-30 16:29
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	62	$128	5,572	0	+5,572	No	-$128	05-01 02:56
Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	2	$81	0	1,628	-1,628	No	+$81	06-23 14:17
will xai have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	3	$76	2,000	0	+2,000	No	-$76	01-15 13:12
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	1	$75	0	950	-950	No	+$75	06-23 14:15
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	144	$71	7,557	0	+7,557	No	-$71	04-21 07:56
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	45	$70	1,750	0	+1,750	No	-$70	04-18 00:58
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	14	$59	746	0	+746	open	—	08-22 14:46
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	1	$40	500	0	+500	No	-$40	04-20 05:50
will xai be the first company to have an ai model hit 1500 on chatbot arena by june 30 2026	2	$15	123	0	+123	No	-$15	01-22 14:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-30 16:29:46	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	OpenAI	BUY	682	8¢	$55	0x2a6ab0…
08-30 14:56:49	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	OpenAI	BUY	300	8¢	$24	0x053fcc…
08-28 05:32:28	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	OpenAI	BUY	271	8¢	$22	0xc632bc…
08-26 17:37:30	Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?	OpenAI	BUY	666	8¢	$53	0x2701c6…
08-22 14:46:42	Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	2¢	$0	0x96709f…
06-23 14:17:59	Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	1,627	5¢	$81	0x7ce301…
06-23 14:15:19	Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	950	8¢	$75	0x09d8ae…
06-23 01:07:58	Will Google Gemini score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0x162141…
06-09 19:47:33	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,800	9¢	$342	0xbeffe0…
06-09 18:07:03	Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?	Yes	SELL	192	74¢	$142	0xa19e5e…
06-09 05:57:28	Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?	Yes	SELL	1	74¢	$1	0x4847f0…
06-08 05:35:45	Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?	Yes	SELL	106	74¢	$79	0x743db1…
06-07 05:02:18	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	623	4¢	$27	0x296547…
06-06 20:32:09	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	71	4¢	$3	0x01d4fe…
06-06 20:27:30	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	49	4¢	$2	0x6b43cc…
06-06 18:10:12	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	4¢	$1	0xfbdefd…
06-06 18:08:45	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	4¢	$1	0x78721e…
06-06 17:28:46	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	4¢	$1	0x4b9dbe…
06-06 17:26:43	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	4¢	$0	0x5cfa2e…
06-06 17:12:04	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	59	4¢	$3	0x77df94…
06-06 16:56:21	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	47	4¢	$2	0x9d812f…
06-06 16:47:24	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0x4d4c03…
06-06 12:32:51	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	4¢	$9	0x5335c8…
06-06 10:52:19	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	93	4¢	$4	0xef9f11…
06-06 10:38:09	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	4¢	$2	0x360336…
06-06 10:35:07	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,168	4¢	$50	0x845df7…
06-06 08:01:19	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	313	4¢	$12	0xf77b4d…
06-06 07:54:33	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	4¢	$0	0xc6287e…
05-19 21:21:38	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	55	4¢	$2	0x590c62…
05-19 21:19:00	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	117	4¢	$4	0xa7cf66…
05-19 21:15:23	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0xcdd53f…
05-19 20:59:12	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0xf5624c…
05-19 20:59:12	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	117	4¢	$4	0xebca1a…
05-19 20:59:12	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x1e0286…
05-19 20:56:15	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	4¢	$0	0xedb961…
05-19 20:23:11	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	4¢	$0	0x348b34…
05-19 19:53:50	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	114	4¢	$4	0xa5b3ee…
05-19 19:53:50	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	4¢	$0	0x87fabd…
05-19 19:53:50	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	275	4¢	$10	0x78c6f3…
05-19 19:52:07	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	419	4¢	$16	0xa30cd6…
05-18 18:37:54	Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	Yes	BUY	800	38¢	$304	0xee07b9…
05-18 18:01:09	Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	79	7¢	$6	0xc9169d…
05-18 18:01:07	Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	7¢	$2	0x541556…
05-18 18:01:00	Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0x836e99…
05-18 18:01:00	Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	79	7¢	$6	0x8329d9…
05-18 18:01:00	Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	7¢	$0	0x6ab73e…
05-18 18:00:58	Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x9a443a…
05-18 18:00:58	Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	7¢	$6	0x7fa7c3…
05-16 19:29:29	Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0xe1dc30…
05-16 19:29:29	Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	7¢	$2	0x5d86ff…
05-16 19:29:29	Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	131	7¢	$9	0x009534…
05-16 08:40:46	Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0x3b0e91…
05-15 13:23:21	Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	7¢	$1	0xb7dfb2…
05-07 15:08:10	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	6¢	$2	0xc568a6…
05-07 15:08:10	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	63	6¢	$4	0x066fa5…
05-07 13:36:05	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,017	6¢	$61	0xcbe15f…
05-07 02:45:58	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	6¢	$0	0x72ba3c…
05-07 01:21:28	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	6¢	$0	0xb72907…
05-06 18:29:57	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	6¢	$18	0x395adf…
05-06 17:38:35	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	6¢	$0	0x8d2b9d…
05-06 17:36:38	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xc41d66…
05-06 12:53:28	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	6¢	$2	0x0f4bdb…
05-06 12:53:26	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	6¢	$2	0x258c68…
05-06 11:43:26	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	7¢	$8	0x6f8931…
05-06 01:47:28	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	93	18¢	$17	0xfa5b88…
05-05 22:26:52	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x54286d…
05-05 21:02:34	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x253128…
05-05 20:52:00	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x39417d…
05-05 20:36:34	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,900	18¢	$342	0x6ba7a4…
05-05 18:17:30	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	18¢	$2	0xe8429c…
05-05 17:16:58	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x408daf…
05-05 16:41:38	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0xfc3c75…
05-05 14:53:32	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xbf3af5…
05-05 14:36:22	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	18¢	$14	0x837f24…
05-05 14:36:18	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	388	18¢	$70	0x91bf7b…
05-04 10:13:54	Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	260	10¢	$25	0x678405…
05-02 12:25:42	Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?	Yes	BUY	300	22¢	$66	0x384927…
05-01 02:56:12	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	2¢	$1	0x459d10…
05-01 02:53:52	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x0688d4…
05-01 02:51:44	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	2¢	$1	0x232282…
05-01 02:37:10	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x98cba3…
05-01 02:36:48	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	2¢	$1	0xba3843…
05-01 02:01:38	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xa8a403…
05-01 00:41:20	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	2¢	$1	0x584776…
05-01 00:41:20	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	71	2¢	$2	0x1a7365…
05-01 00:38:34	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0xfb24e9…
05-01 00:38:34	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	2¢	$0	0x845801…
04-30 23:26:56	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0xf7feb7…
04-30 23:09:10	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0x1332f8…
04-30 22:53:12	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	2¢	$0	0x1fde55…
04-30 22:53:12	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	85	2¢	$2	0x04c50f…
04-30 22:22:14	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x69a4a6…
04-30 22:17:14	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	2¢	$0	0x3382e8…
04-30 22:17:14	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	81	2¢	$2	0x296de0…
04-30 22:16:08	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	2¢	$1	0xc6ecba…
04-30 22:09:40	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x0ab842…
04-30 21:55:36	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0xb43731…
04-30 21:05:18	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	2¢	$2	0xba8e2a…
04-30 21:05:18	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	63	2¢	$1	0x658439…
04-30 20:53:52	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0xa2ca29…