(anonymous) 0x263a87…5df5aa Create alert
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Realized P&L
+$789
Unrealized P&L
+$384
Hit rate
78.1%
Resolved
37
Trades
272
lifetime
Volume
$7.72K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$28
Open exposure
$2.06K
30 positions
First seen
2026-08-09
last 11-02 15:06
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 17 days
Categories
Politics
57% 57% +$423
Other
41% 75% +$367
Tech
2% — —
Crypto
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
39 active days in 12wk • peak 53 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +467 $300 68¢ $315 +$15 10-28 03:18
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +196 $135 90¢ $175 +$40 10-29 23:47
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes +567 $125 30¢ $173 +$48 10-28 09:27
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? Yes +175 $109 84¢ $148 +$39 09-29 12:11
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-01 House seat? Yes +191 $86 62¢ $117 +$32 10-25 10:08
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +227 $50 40¢ $91 +$41 10-15 06:24
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No +147 $60 58¢ $85 +$25 09-28 18:35
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? No +105 $50 71¢ $74 +$24 09-30 20:22
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +111 $75 64¢ $72 -$3 11-01 18:22
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +72 $50 78¢ $55 +$5 11-02 05:56
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes +76 $50 72¢ $55 +$5 11-01 17:09
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes +70 $50 76¢ $53 +$3 11-02 05:51
Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election? Yes +57 $25 94¢ $53 +$28 10-29 02:24
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? No +69 $50 74¢ $52 +$2 10-28 21:34
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes +174 $49 29¢ $50 +$1 10-28 19:27
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? Yes +69 $30 64¢ $44 +$14 10-29 11:08
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Yes +82 $50 52¢ $43 -$7 10-05 18:59
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +69 $25 56¢ $39 +$14 10-27 09:07
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)? Yes +44 $30 84¢ $37 +$7 10-26 11:28
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +77 $25 46¢ $35 +$10 10-30 03:54
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No +43 $25 82¢ $35 +$10 10-27 20:07
Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat? No +61 $25 54¢ $33 +$8 10-28 18:00
Will the Democrats win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026? Yes +250 $30 12¢ $31 +$1 10-21 21:04
Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate? Yes +37 $25 78¢ $29 +$4 10-29 22:29
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No +40 $25 72¢ $29 +$4 10-27 16:01
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +229 $18 12¢ $27 +$9 10-04 17:16
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes +33 $25 80¢ $27 +$2 11-01 16:59
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +36 $25 74¢ $27 +$2 10-29 04:58
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? No +36 $25 71¢ $26 +$1 10-31 22:51
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +32 $25 76¢ $25 $0 10-28 10:43