Ill-Informed-Tolerance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$60

Unrealized P&L

+$80

Hit rate

47.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$316

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

$220

3 positions

First seen

2026-05-26

last 08-10 06:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 15 days

Categories

Other

67% 25% -$9

Sports

28% 0% -$49

Crypto

4% 100% +$2

Politics

2% 0% -$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Roma win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?	Yes	+1,297	$100	13¢	$173	+$73	08-05 09:42
Will Roma win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+5,000	$30	1¢	$38	+$8	08-05 09:44
Will Bayern Munich win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+71	$10	14¢	$10	$0	08-10 05:34

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Roma win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?	1	$100	1,297	0	+1,297	open	—	08-05 09:42
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland	2	$41	30	30	+0	Finland	+$18	05-30 20:22
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland	2	$31	21	21	+0	Finland	+$11	05-31 21:17
Will Roma win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	1	$30	5,000	0	+5,000	open	—	08-05 09:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	2	$12	8	8	+0	Up	+$2	05-26 09:12
will the gta 6 extended look be at least 3 minutes long 20260807064756489	1	$10	250	0	+250	Yes	-$10	08-10 05:35
Will Bayern Munich win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	1	$10	71	0	+71	open	—	08-10 05:34
Will Rodri stay at Manchester City?	1	$10	105	0	+105	No	-$10	08-10 06:14
Will Germany vs. Finland end in a draw?	1	$5	50	0	+50	No	-$5	05-30 11:08
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$5	201	0	+201	No	-$5	05-31 17:33
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$5	5,000	0	+5,000	No	-$5	05-26 09:46
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 0 Arsenal FC?	1	$5	50	0	+50	No	-$5	05-26 10:01
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$5	714	0	+714	No	-$5	05-26 09:45
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	1	$5	45	0	+45	No	-$5	05-31 21:21
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$5	264	0	+264	No	-$5	05-31 17:33
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$5	53	0	+53	No	-$5	05-31 21:22
Will Finland win on 2026-05-31?	1	$5	83	0	+83	No	-$5	05-30 11:07
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$5	192	0	+192	No	-$5	05-31 21:22
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$5	1,667	0	+1,667	No	-$5	05-26 09:46
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$5	833	0	+833	No	-$5	05-31 21:33
Will Edin Džeko be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$4	55	0	+55	No	-$4	05-31 17:35
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer	1	$3	8	0	+8	No	-$3	05-26 10:05
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$3	389	0	+389	No	-$3	05-31 17:39
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$2	222	0	+222	No	-$2	05-31 17:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 06:14:16	Will Rodri stay at Manchester City?	Yes	BUY	105	9¢	$10	0xf928b6…
08-10 05:35:01	will the gta 6 extended look be at least 3 minutes long 20260807064756489	No	BUY	250	4¢	$10	0x65a5d5…
08-10 05:34:34	Will Bayern Munich win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0x13d985…
08-05 09:44:12	Will Roma win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	BUY	5,000	1¢	$30	0x44209d…
08-05 09:42:57	Will Roma win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?	Yes	BUY	1,297	8¢	$100	0x3b5e16…
05-31 21:33:08	Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	833	1¢	$5	0xf0f0fa…
05-31 21:22:38	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	192	3¢	$5	0x344525…
05-31 21:22:20	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	53	9¢	$5	0x748e1b…
05-31 21:21:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x1fce3a…
05-31 21:17:05	World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland	Finland	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x37e54a…
05-31 17:39:51	Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	389	1¢	$3	0x308b66…
05-31 17:39:27	Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	222	1¢	$2	0xa9abd9…
05-31 17:35:36	Will Edin Džeko be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	55	7¢	$4	0x3ccf0d…
05-31 17:33:44	Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	264	2¢	$5	0x5282c5…
05-31 17:33:30	Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	201	2¢	$5	0xc1e2e0…
05-31 16:43:42	World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland	Finland	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x5369f4…
05-30 20:22:49	World Championships: Canada vs. Finland	Finland	SELL	30	99¢	$29	0x417f4b…
05-30 11:08:50	World Championships: Canada vs. Finland	Finland	BUY	30	39¢	$12	0x3ff939…
05-30 11:08:22	Will Germany vs. Finland end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x8710a7…
05-30 11:07:57	Will Finland win on 2026-05-31?	Yes	BUY	83	6¢	$5	0x9aa183…
05-26 10:05:52	Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer	Yes	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0xf5e4f3…
05-26 10:01:42	Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 0 Arsenal FC?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x4cd308…
05-26 09:46:33	Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,667	0¢	$5	0x4ffd20…
05-26 09:46:12	Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0x82d753…
05-26 09:45:30	Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	714	1¢	$5	0x414e94…
05-26 09:12:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	SELL	8	84¢	$7	0x802eb5…
05-26 09:10:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x6fa7e1…