Failing-Pagan — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.62K

Unrealized P&L

-$53

Hit rate

61.5%

Resolved

281

Trades

1,492

lifetime

Volume

$44.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$30

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-28 07:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 126 days

Categories

Other

98% 32% +$3,058

Crypto

1% 12% -$407

Politics

0% 50% +$24

Sports

0% 0% -$60

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

38 active days in 12wk • peak 80 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	—	+127	$54	1¢	$1	-$53	10-28 07:33

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 260 279	9	$2.2K	1,434	1,434	+0	Yes	+$266	03-27 15:29
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 300 319	14	$1.2K	1,067	1,036	+31	Yes	+$308	04-17 09:42
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 260 279	15	$1.1K	1,880	1,537	+343	No	+$176	03-17 15:09
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 280 299	18	$1.1K	1,432	1,432	+0	Yes	+$98	03-17 13:05
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	20	$1.0K	1,586	1,186	+400	No	-$96	05-22 13:36
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	34	$1.0K	1,120	1,120	+0	Yes	+$592	10-02 12:33
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	3	$859	687	687	+0	Yes	-$34	05-08 06:47
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 320 339	7	$847	1,238	1,207	+31	No	-$251	04-17 10:49
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	7	$796	1,837	1,837	+0	No	-$285	05-08 06:55
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	14	$635	2,056	1,270	+786	No	+$43	10-08 16:29
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	7	$628	610	610	+0	Yes	+$494	10-07 06:40
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	10	$606	597	400	+197	Yes	+$91	05-22 13:38
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	24	$574	2,476	2,476	+0	No	+$503	08-20 15:00
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 360 379	20	$566	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$456	03-10 13:40
elon musk of tweets january 24 january 26 90 114	11	$545	1,067	567	+500	No	+$73	01-26 16:12
elon musk of tweets january 20 january 27 400 419	4	$541	800	800	+0	No	+$27	01-27 13:10
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 360 379	3	$526	505	505	+0	Yes	+$326	02-10 15:15
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	16	$525	2,307	2,307	+0	No	-$68	05-21 00:31
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	10	$496	1,647	1,647	+0	Yes	+$268	10-09 07:44
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	10	$494	1,313	1,313	+0	No	+$257	10-08 15:23
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 320 339	10	$480	1,251	500	+751	Yes	+$583	03-20 13:33
elon musk of tweets march 12 march 14 115 139	4	$442	696	696	+0	No	-$84	03-14 13:08
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 300 319	2	$426	500	500	+0	Yes	+$296	02-20 11:45
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 340 359	2	$420	321	321	+0	Yes	+$220	03-10 16:31
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	10	$416	448	448	+0	Yes	-$4	05-19 03:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 08:10 UTC	3	$415	830	0	+830	Up	-$415	03-01 08:09
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	12	$412	1,044	1,044	+0	No	+$21	05-21 15:14
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	10	$407	2,427	1,700	+727	No	-$239	05-08 07:17
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 360 379	9	$401	427	427	-0	Yes	+$316	03-13 15:39
elon musk of tweets march 31 april 7 280 299	7	$384	453	444	+9	No	+$149	04-07 10:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 07:33:04	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	97	42¢	$41	0x776a37…
10-28 07:25:59	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	42¢	$1	0x63fd68…
10-28 07:25:41	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	45¢	$12	0x98fd46…
10-28 06:20:16	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	50¢	$10	0xbd83ba…
10-28 06:20:10	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	81	50¢	$40	0x7c19e2…
10-28 06:12:55	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	62¢	$62	0x3c8415…
10-27 15:59:35	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xa4f3ab…
10-27 05:02:30	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	57¢	$12	0xf59267…
10-27 05:02:29	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	130	57¢	$74	0x97b677…
10-26 15:07:05	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	268	14¢	$38	0xdaf640…
10-26 15:07:05	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	155	14¢	$22	0x74434d…
10-26 13:50:08	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	342	15¢	$53	0xd1b6f6…
10-26 13:50:08	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	81	16¢	$13	0x8bb54b…
10-26 13:49:38	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	300	30¢	$89	0x4c09fe…
10-26 03:33:18	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	240	1¢	$3	0x399d26…
10-26 03:31:18	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	1¢	$1	0x81ff5f…
10-26 03:23:20	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	24¢	$6	0xa8a8db…
10-26 03:23:18	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	24¢	$9	0xf4470d…
10-26 03:23:18	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	24¢	$48	0x8af41d…
10-26 02:48:17	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	105	1¢	$1	0x8632d3…
10-26 02:44:47	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	1¢	$0	0x883ca1…
10-26 02:41:15	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	24¢	$8	0xa34ac4…
10-26 02:40:36	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	36¢	$72	0x94c7c2…
10-26 01:05:54	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	1¢	$1	0x732ac8…
10-26 01:04:26	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	1¢	$0	0xaba8c7…
10-25 23:07:44	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	748	2¢	$19	0x04640f…
10-24 14:26:14	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	190	21¢	$40	0x378535…
10-24 14:26:03	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	160	20¢	$32	0x18518c…
10-24 00:56:50	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	84	22¢	$19	0xa5fb20…
10-24 00:11:29	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	22¢	$3	0x1d9187…
10-23 23:43:15	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	22¢	$2	0x885e18…
10-23 15:44:47	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	13¢	$13	0x4b6754…
10-23 14:31:18	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	26¢	$26	0x070274…
10-23 14:28:11	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	44¢	$44	0x0de461…
10-23 10:54:08	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	62¢	$62	0x6035b3…
10-23 05:50:00	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	87	20¢	$17	0xc7bd50…
10-23 05:49:35	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	20¢	$3	0x486dee…
10-23 04:18:41	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	45¢	$45	0x0f66d1…
10-23 04:02:20	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x6d1663…
10-23 01:47:35	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	53¢	$53	0x6b2dcc…
10-22 04:49:54	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	28¢	$28	0x83be43…
10-22 00:21:30	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	103	17¢	$17	0xc3065a…
10-20 06:04:44	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	25¢	$9	0x9e45b1…
10-20 06:04:37	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	67	25¢	$16	0x265034…
10-20 04:06:45	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	196	49¢	$97	0xa3c471…
10-18 02:24:00	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0x4f116c…
10-18 02:24:00	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	148	2¢	$3	0x1b6a34…
10-18 02:22:38	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	2¢	$1	0xc32fa2…
10-18 02:20:48	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x3db7bd…
10-17 17:07:29	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	222	6¢	$12	0xe63cee…
10-17 16:23:17	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	196	12¢	$24	0xc3e622…
10-17 16:01:59	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0x9138c5…
10-17 13:04:05	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	39¢	$16	0xfd4596…
10-16 06:02:40	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	27¢	$27	0xe61a5b…
10-15 13:11:53	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	334	1¢	$3	0x61ba00…
10-15 13:08:23	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0xbf6826…
10-15 13:08:22	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	76	11¢	$9	0x98be16…
10-15 13:07:50	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	11¢	$6	0xa151aa…
10-15 01:57:22	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	92	25¢	$23	0xcf8c04…
10-15 01:56:13	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	SELL	279	26¢	$73	0x99f669…
10-15 01:28:16	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	279	30¢	$83	0x81ac54…
10-14 04:08:58	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	11¢	$4	0xab94ab…
10-14 04:08:47	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	174	11¢	$19	0xf25eab…
10-13 11:23:20	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	SELL	227	22¢	$50	0xbae9dc…
10-13 05:47:46	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$5	0x66fdec…
10-13 05:47:03	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x0ac93d…
10-13 05:43:57	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	0¢	$0	0xdfa0c7…
10-13 05:41:25	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	0¢	$0	0x784890…
10-13 05:40:46	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	201	0¢	$1	0x646690…
10-13 05:39:37	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	0¢	$0	0x89502f…
10-13 05:39:24	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	0¢	$0	0xef196f…
10-13 05:39:15	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0xd329e2…
10-13 05:39:13	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	0¢	$0	0x74e931…
10-13 01:47:03	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	173	16¢	$28	0x52f54c…
10-13 01:46:39	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	54	15¢	$8	0xb5d495…
10-13 00:53:57	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	53¢	$14	0x9a635d…
10-13 00:53:53	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	53¢	$6	0x3d78ce…
10-13 00:48:05	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	53¢	$6	0x7bdeec…
10-13 00:34:30	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	53¢	$20	0xdd31f3…
10-10 07:29:28	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,006	2¢	$18	0x92c76c…
10-10 04:58:37	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	7¢	$6	0x6e03f2…
10-10 04:58:31	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	195	7¢	$14	0xdb3cd7…
10-10 04:46:42	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	92	7¢	$6	0x0405d4…
10-10 04:44:31	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	7¢	$1	0x203f22…
10-10 04:43:46	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	79	7¢	$6	0xa9ebc7…
10-10 04:43:37	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	55	7¢	$4	0x5f60c4…
10-10 04:39:15	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	5¢	$25	0x5b2afb…
10-09 14:02:36	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	137	19¢	$26	0x4ae438…
10-09 14:02:21	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	105	46¢	$48	0x97a168…
10-09 08:18:09	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,278	0¢	$4	0x611aa9…
10-09 07:44:16	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	61¢	$49	0x25263d…
10-09 07:44:13	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	61¢	$31	0xddc522…
10-09 07:44:12	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	232	61¢	$142	0xfae276…
10-08 23:14:20	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	345	18¢	$62	0x860543…
10-08 19:33:21	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	250	12¢	$29	0x681e60…
10-08 19:11:12	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	9¢	$36	0x321ea9…
10-08 19:10:20	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	600	9¢	$54	0xd95604…
10-08 19:01:54	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,057	10¢	$106	0xe54778…
10-08 18:43:05	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	10¢	$50	0xbe633e…
10-08 16:29:54	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0x812a25…