Failing-Pagan — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$1.35K

Unrealized P&L

+$23

Hit rate

63.0%

Resolved (90d)

108

Trades (90d)

497

1,609 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$11.3K

$46.4K lifetime

Avg / trade

$29

Open exposure

$127

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 11-10 09:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 139 days

Categories

Other

97% 29% +$2,398

Crypto

3% 33% -$195

Politics

0% 50% +$24

Sports

0% 0% -$60

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

47 active days in 12wk • peak 80 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	+312	$44	19¢	$61	+$16	11-10 09:08
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	+60	$35	80¢	$48	+$13	11-08 00:51
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	+182	$25	10¢	$19	-$6	11-10 07:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 260 279	9	$2.2K	1,434	1,434	+0	Yes	+$266	03-27 15:29
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 300 319	14	$1.2K	1,067	1,036	+31	Yes	+$308	04-17 09:42
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 260 279	15	$1.1K	1,880	1,537	+343	No	+$176	03-17 15:09
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 280 299	18	$1.1K	1,432	1,432	+0	Yes	+$98	03-17 13:05
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	20	$1.0K	1,586	1,186	+400	No	-$96	05-22 13:36
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	34	$1.0K	1,120	1,120	+0	Yes	+$592	10-02 12:33
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	3	$859	687	687	+0	Yes	-$34	05-08 06:47
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 320 339	7	$847	1,238	1,207	+31	No	-$251	04-17 10:49
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	7	$796	1,837	1,837	+0	No	-$285	05-08 06:55
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	14	$635	2,056	1,270	+786	No	+$43	10-08 16:29
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	7	$628	610	610	+0	Yes	+$494	10-07 06:40
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	10	$606	597	400	+197	Yes	+$91	05-22 13:38
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	24	$574	2,476	2,476	+0	No	+$503	08-20 15:00
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 360 379	20	$566	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$456	03-10 13:40
elon musk of tweets january 24 january 26 90 114	11	$545	1,067	567	+500	No	+$73	01-26 16:12
elon musk of tweets january 20 january 27 400 419	4	$541	800	800	+0	No	+$27	01-27 13:10
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 360 379	3	$526	505	505	+0	Yes	+$326	02-10 15:15
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	16	$525	2,307	2,307	+0	No	-$68	05-21 00:31
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	10	$496	1,647	1,647	+0	Yes	+$268	10-09 07:44
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	10	$494	1,313	1,313	+0	No	+$257	10-08 15:23
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 320 339	10	$480	1,251	500	+751	Yes	+$583	03-20 13:33
elon musk of tweets march 12 march 14 115 139	4	$442	696	696	+0	No	-$84	03-14 13:08
elon musk of tweets february 13 february 20 300 319	2	$426	500	500	+0	Yes	+$296	02-20 11:45
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 340 359	2	$420	321	321	+0	Yes	+$220	03-10 16:31
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	10	$416	448	448	+0	Yes	-$4	05-19 03:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 08:10 UTC	3	$415	830	0	+830	Up	-$415	03-01 08:09
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	12	$412	1,044	1,044	+0	No	+$21	05-21 15:14
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?	10	$407	2,427	1,700	+727	No	-$239	05-08 07:17
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 360 379	9	$401	427	427	-0	Yes	+$316	03-13 15:39
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	3	$393	200	200	+0	open	—	10-30 02:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-10 09:08:30	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	198	14¢	$28	0x77b3cf…
11-10 09:05:25	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	14¢	$0	0x516350…
11-10 08:52:43	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	112	14¢	$16	0x40b592…
11-10 07:41:28	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x5a0bbb…
11-10 07:41:28	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	162	14¢	$22	0x522c9e…
11-09 10:41:57	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 7 to November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	0¢	$1	0xf91c0b…
11-09 10:41:57	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 7 to November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	850	1¢	$4	0x05b10a…
11-09 10:18:48	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 7 to November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$3	0x6873ff…
11-09 10:16:30	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 7 to November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	2¢	$9	0x517f12…
11-09 10:15:21	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 7 to November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x93a731…
11-09 10:15:16	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 7 to November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	94	2¢	$2	0x1b8f94…
11-09 10:13:51	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 7 to November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	99	6¢	$6	0xdc80ed…
11-09 10:13:39	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 7 to November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	66	6¢	$4	0xb09184…
11-09 02:42:25	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	219	28¢	$61	0x038a9d…
11-08 15:25:36	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 7 to November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$3	0x2e618b…
11-08 05:37:43	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 7 to November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0x34d984…
11-08 05:37:42	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 7 to November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	121	26¢	$32	0x49ccf6…
11-08 04:44:01	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 7 to November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0x16dcd4…
11-08 04:43:34	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 7 to November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	457	1¢	$7	0x4fc76f…
11-08 00:51:19	Will CZ post 20-39 posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	58¢	$35	0x5b11fe…
11-07 05:38:39	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x7e97bb…
11-07 05:38:04	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	3¢	$1	0x4d85d8…
11-07 05:37:34	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	3¢	$0	0x89b793…
11-07 01:49:40	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	211	27¢	$57	0xb21665…
11-06 08:59:04	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x518d5b…
11-06 08:55:10	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	25¢	$8	0x166044…
11-06 08:41:15	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	25¢	$10	0x572eba…
11-06 08:36:40	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xe442c9…
11-06 08:36:36	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	25¢	$3	0x69bf4f…
11-06 08:36:34	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	25¢	$4	0xfeef39…
11-06 06:43:19	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	141	25¢	$35	0x8604ae…
11-06 06:36:15	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	141	27¢	$38	0xf44a43…
11-06 06:32:45	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	266	69¢	$185	0xe5aa8a…
11-06 06:20:39	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x08b770…
11-05 04:18:34	Will CZ post 60-79 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	63¢	$8	0x7dfa46…
11-04 19:18:21	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	81	2¢	$2	0x9efa04…
11-04 19:18:07	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	2¢	$3	0xa4e1f7…
11-04 19:09:03	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x6db7c3…
11-04 18:40:09	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	194	2¢	$4	0x726e02…
11-04 14:22:36	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	266	17¢	$44	0x64d89f…
11-04 14:21:33	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	429	6¢	$24	0xd86d96…
11-04 14:21:21	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	394	1¢	$3	0x96a457…
11-04 01:14:34	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	480	1¢	$3	0x50bb9c…
11-04 01:14:24	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	1¢	$1	0xa384e2…
11-04 01:14:06	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	539	1¢	$3	0x5a0bd5…
11-03 13:00:55	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	5¢	$15	0xa1caa2…
11-03 13:00:45	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	192	2¢	$3	0xf2e05c…
11-03 13:00:28	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	308	2¢	$5	0x13e545…
11-03 05:30:25	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	14¢	$14	0x87d186…
11-03 05:08:45	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	170	16¢	$27	0x1404bb…
11-03 02:32:40	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	273	1¢	$3	0xbce836…
11-02 20:45:01	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	620	3¢	$19	0x908aa9…
11-02 17:23:15	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	221	2¢	$5	0x1df9fc…
11-02 16:21:31	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	4¢	$1	0x40838d…
11-02 15:31:24	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	89	4¢	$4	0xbe232a…
11-02 15:17:55	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x24f9e0…
11-02 15:17:21	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	141	4¢	$6	0x2239e5…
11-02 13:52:54	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	4¢	$2	0xa3e8dc…
11-02 02:33:48	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	SELL	364	44¢	$160	0xa5cf8a…
11-02 01:48:06	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	364	46¢	$167	0x448f9a…
11-01 05:17:01	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	18¢	$6	0x9d3f13…
11-01 05:17:00	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	SELL	115	18¢	$20	0x5b9c40…
11-01 05:16:28	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	388	12¢	$46	0x1182d5…
11-01 05:16:16	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	579	1¢	$6	0xa949e9…
10-31 23:43:21	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	147	19¢	$28	0x478056…
10-31 21:22:58	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	10¢	$20	0x22afa4…
10-31 18:00:21	Will CZ post 100-119 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x380667…
10-31 15:28:54	Will CZ post 100-119 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	2¢	$0	0x735c5e…
10-31 15:28:52	Will CZ post 100-119 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$1	0x1aded4…
10-30 16:22:52	Will CZ post 100-119 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x83b7fd…
10-30 16:22:40	Will CZ post 100-119 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xafbc68…
10-30 16:13:43	Will CZ post 100-119 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x07d124…
10-30 15:52:06	Will CZ post 60-79 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	357	0¢	$1	0xa53f6a…
10-30 15:51:46	Will CZ post 60-79 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	143	0¢	$0	0xe89096…
10-30 15:40:16	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	145	5¢	$7	0x11e7a9…
10-30 15:39:06	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	132	4¢	$6	0x24446c…
10-30 15:38:54	Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	177	3¢	$6	0xf421b0…
10-30 15:38:48	Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	165	2¢	$3	0xc8df11…
10-30 15:38:39	Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	348	2¢	$6	0x3ced0f…
10-30 15:38:15	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	134	13¢	$17	0xd61d7b…
10-30 15:11:45	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	66	10¢	$7	0x4e0822…
10-30 15:11:06	Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	232	4¢	$9	0x68c777…
10-30 15:05:03	Will CZ post 100-119 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0xeb6717…
10-30 15:03:34	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	5¢	$25	0xc69a89…
10-30 15:02:48	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	9¢	$45	0xb4f94b…
10-30 11:26:22	Will CZ post 40-59 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	97	92¢	$89	0x7dc7e8…
10-30 08:06:46	Will CZ post 60-79 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0x6060d6…
10-30 06:20:13	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	56¢	$28	0x670121…
10-30 06:19:48	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	55¢	$16	0xebea4f…
10-30 06:09:15	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	46¢	$37	0xd7aa90…
10-30 05:42:46	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	290	18¢	$51	0x26d872…
10-30 03:09:06	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	39¢	$19	0x8611fa…
10-30 03:08:57	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	39¢	$12	0x2fa16c…
10-30 02:56:00	Will CZ post 60-79 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0xcdfad5…
10-30 02:43:12	Will CZ post 40-59 posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	93¢	$13	0x55bc77…
10-30 02:13:28	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	200	98¢	$196	0x4e2d29…
10-30 02:13:10	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	67	99¢	$66	0x3a8b36…
10-30 02:12:03	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	133	99¢	$131	0x4eaa76…
10-30 01:21:10	Will CZ post 100-119 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	249	1¢	$2	0x82a519…
10-30 01:20:51	Will CZ post 60-79 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	10¢	$4	0x220c88…