Nervous-Metallurgist — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.46K

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

84.3%

Resolved

3,725

Trades

10,618

lifetime

Volume

$191.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

$10

2 positions

First seen

2026-05-25

last 10-27 06:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 92 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 77% -$1,412

Politics

0% 0% -$48

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

66 active days in 12wk • peak 673 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Up		+10	$8	96¢	$10	+$2	10-27 08:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down		+10	$2	4¢	$0	-$1	10-27 08:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-10 02:00 UTC	10	$1.7K	1,700	800	+900	Down	-$83	06-10 02:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-10 02:05 UTC	3	$1.6K	1,600	800	+800	Down	+$8	06-10 02:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-10 02:10 UTC	27	$1.5K	1,600	800	+800	Down	+$77	06-10 02:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-10 01:20 UTC	12	$1.1K	1,262	562	+700	Down	-$1	06-10 01:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 22:00 UTC	28	$954	1,500	500	+1,000	Down	+$36	06-09 22:05
bitcoin up or down june 22 2026 3am et	14	$835	485	485	+0	Up	+$13	06-22 07:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-10 02:20 UTC	2	$834	900	0	+900	Down	-$834	06-10 02:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	5	$834	473	473	+0	Down	+$34	05-26 00:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-10 00:55 UTC	6	$830	1,122	422	+700	Up	+$6	06-10 01:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 21:25 UTC	5	$789	900	400	+500	Down	+$3	06-09 21:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 21:50 UTC	3	$773	900	400	+500	Down	+$19	06-09 21:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 21:20 UTC	27	$773	900	400	+500	Down	+$19	06-09 21:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	24	$740	903	261	+643	Down	+$14	10-23 22:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-10 01:40 UTC	31	$709	1,600	0	+1,600	Down	+$91	06-10 01:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 6, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	2	$676	340	340	+0	Down	+$3	09-06 16:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-10 00:40 UTC	38	$665	1,400	0	+1,400	Down	+$35	06-10 00:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-10 01:25 UTC	2	$644	1,400	0	+1,400	Up	+$56	06-10 01:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	4	$620	323	323	+0	Down	+$20	05-26 00:10
bitcoin up or down june 22 2026 9am et	8	$600	454	454	+0	Up	-$45	06-22 13:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 16:00 UTC	8	$594	600	300	+300	Down	+$0	06-09 16:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 16:30 UTC	6	$588	600	300	+300	Up	+$6	06-09 16:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	16	$586	700	300	+400	Down	+$8	06-09 21:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-09 16:05 UTC	8	$586	700	300	+400	Down	+$8	06-09 16:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	5	$575	892	292	+600	Down	+$3	10-24 00:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	14	$546	780	189	+590	Down	-$90	10-23 12:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	17	$536	570	570	+0	Up	-$304	10-24 01:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	22	$533	796	253	+543	Down	+$6	10-23 22:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	9	$524	891	264	+627	Down	-$502	10-21 23:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-10 02:15 UTC	8	$515	1,160	260	+900	Down	-$1	06-10 02:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	5	$513	717	193	+524	Down	-$50	10-22 12:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 08:03:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0xecc0bd…
10-27 08:02:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x6b7ff8…
10-27 08:01:47	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xf964bc…
10-27 08:01:39	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0xd21c18…
10-27 08:00:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0xa4c8fc…
10-27 08:00:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xaf6164…
10-27 07:57:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	7	12¢	$1	0x7465f6…
10-27 07:57:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	12¢	$0	0x0e5d25…
10-27 07:57:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xbeece7…
10-27 07:54:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x251c10…
10-27 07:53:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0xc96828…
10-27 07:46:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0xb7a352…
10-27 07:41:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x28aec2…
10-27 07:41:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0x22ea7f…
10-27 07:40:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	11¢	$0	0x6f2b52…
10-27 07:40:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0x9c67bd…
10-27 07:40:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0x345aef…
10-27 07:39:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x6d0aa6…
10-27 07:38:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0xc319c0…
10-27 07:38:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x508774…
10-27 07:37:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Down	SELL	10	65¢	$6	0xf1cff9…
10-27 07:35:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0x022e78…
10-27 07:35:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0x84242e…
10-27 07:34:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xc3d408…
10-27 07:33:24	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x4f3148…
10-27 07:32:27	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x601f9b…
10-27 07:31:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x9561d3…
10-27 07:31:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0xe8c9f7…
10-27 07:29:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	11¢	$0	0xd48678…
10-27 07:29:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	11¢	$1	0x366f73…
10-27 07:27:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x26b0a3…
10-27 07:23:11	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	6	13¢	$1	0xcc8f60…
10-27 07:23:11	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	4	13¢	$0	0x69c385…
10-27 07:22:45	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x40f9fd…
10-27 07:22:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0xc703bc…
10-27 07:21:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0x4b5591…
10-27 07:21:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0x2b0576…
10-27 07:18:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x3bc97c…
10-27 07:14:05	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	SELL	5	10¢	$0	0xfbb321…
10-27 07:13:48	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	SELL	5	26¢	$1	0xfe77a7…
10-27 07:13:23	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x2450b3…
10-27 07:12:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0x411c6d…
10-27 07:11:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x7a72b5…
10-27 07:09:39	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Down	SELL	10	30¢	$3	0xd576d0…
10-27 07:09:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0x5cc030…
10-27 07:07:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0x4170f2…
10-27 07:07:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x672cb0…
10-27 07:02:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x9b695b…
10-27 07:01:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x150986…
10-27 06:58:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0xa1af3f…
10-27 06:58:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0xbb9701…
10-27 06:53:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	4	11¢	$0	0x2ccf5d…
10-27 06:53:30	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0x369b45…
10-27 06:53:09	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x240050…
10-27 06:50:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x99d258…
10-27 06:50:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x310b31…
10-27 06:49:41	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0xfb909b…
10-27 06:48:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x2e0207…
10-27 06:41:50	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0x70cd9e…
10-27 06:41:05	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x3c7db0…
10-27 06:40:39	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0x763c7e…
10-27 06:40:15	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0x46c5b4…
10-27 06:38:57	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0xfe9b49…
10-27 06:32:42	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0xff048c…
10-27 06:31:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xb261d2…
10-27 06:31:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x2fab70…
10-27 06:31:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0x7e3f8e…
10-27 06:30:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0xe9f445…
10-27 06:27:45	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Down	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xb9c931…
10-27 06:24:12	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xda3593…
10-27 06:21:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x95b3bd…
10-27 06:21:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0x47d983…
10-27 06:19:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0xc9d5ad…
10-27 06:17:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x50d723…
10-27 06:13:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x37305f…
10-27 06:13:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x49208a…
10-27 06:12:11	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	0	7¢	$0	0xb39010…
10-27 06:12:06	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	7¢	$0	0x89c5f7…
10-27 06:11:36	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	7¢	$0	0x17b77a…
10-27 06:07:14	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x58ec6f…
10-27 06:05:29	XRP Up or Down - October 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x2f0d9c…
10-27 06:04:54	XRP Up or Down - October 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0xafa1dd…
10-27 06:03:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0x1b96c1…
10-27 06:02:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x69ed6a…
10-27 05:55:50	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xa1b583…
10-27 05:55:47	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xd25f2b…
10-27 05:53:21	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x7344a6…
10-27 05:53:20	XRP Up or Down - October 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xc3bda1…
10-27 05:51:06	XRP Up or Down - October 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0xabc54f…
10-27 05:49:26	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xd842ee…
10-27 05:35:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	SELL	10	18¢	$2	0x79214b…
10-27 05:31:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0xc4ae98…
10-27 05:29:30	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Colima Congress election?	Yes	SELL	14	67¢	$9	0xe97172…
10-27 05:20:50	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x22b7e3…
10-27 05:19:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1AM ET	Down	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x0afdc8…
10-27 05:17:48	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0x3e343d…
10-27 05:16:26	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xe971af…
10-27 05:14:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1AM ET	Down	SELL	31	31¢	$10	0x6980a7…
10-27 05:14:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1AM ET	Down	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0xfa5885…
10-27 05:08:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0xab3322…