Strong-Departure — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.78K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

40.0%

Resolved

Trades

4,005

lifetime

Volume

$234.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$59

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-02 07:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

35% — —

Politics

26% 0% $-2,146

Crypto

23% — —

Sports

12% 100% +$364

Pop-Culture

3% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch?	55	$12.2K	21,350	2,000	+19,350	open	—	02-27 12:35
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?	76	$9.5K	17,206	3,541	+13,665	open	—	02-19 03:43
will the us collect less than 100b in revenue in 2025	88	$7.8K	12,512	0	+12,512	open	—	02-27 03:54
megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	59	$6.7K	16,435	0	+16,435	open	—	04-30 16:51
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	48	$6.5K	12,427	0	+12,427	open	—	02-08 06:09
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	11	$5.8K	7,388	0	+7,388	open	—	06-01 12:00
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	53	$5.6K	10,840	1,472	+9,368	open	—	02-28 19:31
googl above 330 on january 30 2026	11	$5.2K	10,066	0	+10,066	open	—	01-30 10:54
will drake maye win the 202526 nfl mvp award	40	$5.2K	10,177	10	+10,167	open	—	02-06 01:46
israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	22	$4.9K	8,824	0	+8,824	open	—	02-28 06:17
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	50	$4.4K	8,921	0	+8,921	open	—	02-28 06:42
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	124	$4.2K	10,689	0	+10,689	open	—	04-03 16:17
will golden ejae and mark sonnenblick win song of the year at the 68th annual grammy awards	24	$4.1K	9,022	0	+9,022	open	—	02-02 03:10
will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	62	$3.8K	7,750	253	+7,497	open	—	03-16 02:20
will t lm be the next president of vietnam	25	$3.6K	5,379	0	+5,379	open	—	03-24 13:08
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	32	$3.6K	8,074	0	+8,074	Yes	$-2,146	05-08 18:34
megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733	45	$3.5K	9,054	0	+9,054	open	—	04-30 21:26
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	6	$3.3K	1,846	1,811	+35	open	—	02-08 06:16
will peoples party pple win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	32	$3.3K	5,354	0	+5,354	open	—	02-08 14:42
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	47	$3.2K	7,247	0	+7,247	open	—	01-30 00:22
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	41	$3.2K	4,898	0	+4,898	open	—	03-18 18:28
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	12	$3.0K	6,689	0	+6,689	open	—	03-18 22:30
will stellan skarsgrd win best supporting actor at the 98th academy awards	45	$2.9K	4,786	0	+4,786	open	—	03-15 05:25
will sean penn win best supporting actor at the 98th academy awards	35	$2.8K	7,303	40	+7,263	open	—	03-15 19:36
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	36	$2.8K	5,552	0	+5,552	open	—	04-20 08:55
will teyana taylor win best supporting actress at the 98th academy awards	108	$2.8K	4,771	0	+4,771	open	—	03-02 03:16
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	26	$2.8K	5,020	0	+5,020	open	—	02-28 06:21
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	28	$2.7K	5,151	0	+5,151	open	—	01-30 15:34
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?	31	$2.6K	4,825	0	+4,825	open	—	03-04 20:26
will the us add between 0 and 25k jobs in january	63	$2.5K	4,926	0	+4,926	open	—	02-11 04:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 07:33:41	Fannie Mae IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	47	11¢	$5	0x079b65…
07-01 20:22:19	Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	32	54¢	$17	0x5a232d…
07-01 18:02:55	Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	41	55¢	$23	0x8107c6…
07-01 17:19:53	Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	12	55¢	$7	0xf5efd9…
07-01 17:12:08	Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	12	55¢	$7	0xaebd06…
07-01 09:24:59	Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	27¢	$9	0x655b99…
06-30 00:45:26	Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	14	15¢	$2	0x90b693…
06-29 16:47:25	Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	41	15¢	$6	0x410811…
06-26 17:10:38	US strike on Mexico by December 31?	No	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x24979b…
06-25 21:50:55	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	31¢	$4	0xe8a783…
06-25 21:08:40	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0x628e11…
06-25 21:01:23	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	64	36¢	$23	0x7018dd…
06-25 20:55:53	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	31¢	$0	0x7d82ca…
06-25 20:54:46	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	34¢	$13	0x0e039a…
06-25 20:52:28	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	278	33¢	$92	0xb53b2b…
06-25 20:50:11	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	32¢	$5	0xef9585…
06-25 20:47:52	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	54	34¢	$18	0x8822b8…
06-25 20:45:35	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	84	36¢	$30	0x8cf2b5…
06-25 20:43:37	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0xac29ad…
06-25 20:43:17	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	35¢	$5	0x136f79…
06-25 20:37:17	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	42¢	$5	0x605be1…
06-25 20:34:37	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	43¢	$3	0xfe22c4…
06-25 20:32:16	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	43¢	$15	0xaa3a60…
06-24 09:56:16	Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	45	75¢	$34	0x71ca63…
06-24 08:42:22	Will Loopscale launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	8¢	$1	0x7f1841…
06-23 22:51:34	9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	Yes	BUY	242	6¢	$16	0x53eaa8…
06-23 22:50:23	9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	Yes	BUY	22	6¢	$1	0xd8caf9…
06-21 11:11:37	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x81227f…
06-21 11:11:35	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x3bf426…
06-18 16:50:22	Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	37	60¢	$22	0x3b3bf9…
06-11 14:07:31	Will Perena launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	34¢	$6	0xe6cd39…
06-11 06:51:58	Will Silver (SI) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	23¢	$8	0x2031f8…
06-11 04:21:52	Will Silver (SI) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0xe07c76…
06-10 22:14:46	Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	203	51¢	$104	0x64e72c…
06-10 21:23:33	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	61	45¢	$27	0x9c8547…
06-10 16:38:00	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	61	45¢	$27	0xba72d2…
06-10 16:24:43	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	416	46¢	$191	0xf7194c…
06-10 16:19:04	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	61	45¢	$27	0xa895ff…
06-10 16:17:39	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	254	45¢	$114	0x479404…
06-10 16:15:21	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	35	45¢	$16	0x108e5a…
06-10 16:13:04	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	31	46¢	$14	0x7a94e6…
06-10 16:10:46	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	55	48¢	$27	0xf1b034…
06-10 16:08:28	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	101	51¢	$51	0x7596d0…
06-10 16:02:10	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	317	40¢	$127	0x6dfa11…
06-10 15:59:55	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	180	50¢	$90	0xafc695…
06-10 15:59:01	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	48¢	$6	0x79bd1c…
06-10 15:58:40	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	29	61¢	$18	0xf122d9…
06-10 15:48:07	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	79	50¢	$40	0xa2191a…
06-10 15:41:16	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	285	57¢	$162	0x565bfc…
06-10 15:40:55	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	509	63¢	$323	0xe062f2…
06-10 15:38:37	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	64¢	$12	0x1650ec…
06-09 17:02:15	Will Silver (SI) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	21¢	$1	0xb20b03…
06-09 17:01:45	Will Silver (SI) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	21¢	$1	0x8710a6…
06-09 17:01:13	Will Silver (SI) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	21¢	$1	0x481a3d…
06-09 14:55:24	Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	12	22¢	$3	0xe4d478…
06-09 14:30:21	Will Silver (SI) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	21¢	$6	0xbd09ea…
06-09 13:29:49	Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x564185…
06-09 07:57:07	Andy Jassy out as Amazon CEO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	53	3¢	$2	0x525e00…
06-09 05:48:25	9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	Yes	BUY	89	7¢	$6	0x170c16…
06-08 15:44:00	Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?	No	BUY	15	92¢	$14	0xa767c9…
06-08 07:26:33	9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0xed182b…
06-08 07:26:28	9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0xc5a8f2…
06-07 23:57:48	9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	Yes	BUY	31	6¢	$2	0xfd3863…
06-07 23:47:24	9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	BUY	72	66¢	$48	0xca2d51…
06-07 23:47:15	9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	BUY	16	65¢	$11	0x6a0d6d…
06-07 23:47:10	9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	BUY	14	64¢	$9	0xfe4da2…
06-07 23:47:00	9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	BUY	146	66¢	$96	0x85665d…
06-07 23:46:48	9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	BUY	30	37¢	$11	0x4914ed…
06-07 23:46:40	9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	BUY	99	60¢	$59	0x38cfe8…
06-07 15:01:18	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	No	BUY	135	1¢	$1	0x3f6bf0…
06-05 20:56:52	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	513	98¢	$503	0x4a988b…
06-05 15:36:42	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	259	71¢	$184	0xc5c69d…
06-05 15:36:33	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	31	75¢	$23	0xc5fc85…
06-05 15:36:21	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	26	76¢	$20	0x40b435…
06-05 15:36:16	Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x8fcac6…
06-05 14:48:55	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?	Yes	BUY	376	97¢	$365	0xe90c04…
06-05 14:46:37	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?	Yes	BUY	376	97¢	$365	0xedffe8…
06-03 10:21:58	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xee4185…
06-03 10:19:40	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	67¢	$21	0x5a72b4…
06-03 09:01:03	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	BUY	321	2¢	$7	0x01ac08…
06-03 08:57:39	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	65¢	$7	0x6d3f20…
06-03 07:41:52	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,087	2¢	$23	0xe76aa8…
06-02 15:35:29	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	508	36¢	$183	0x208309…
06-02 15:33:11	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	289	36¢	$104	0x829369…
06-02 15:30:53	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	508	37¢	$188	0x4d433a…
06-02 15:28:35	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	508	37¢	$188	0x25efda…
06-02 15:26:18	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	508	37¢	$188	0xd4af13…
06-02 15:24:00	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	508	37¢	$188	0xca2ec6…
06-02 15:20:26	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	508	37¢	$188	0x85d4ce…
06-02 14:48:48	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	508	37¢	$188	0xb911e5…
06-02 14:44:11	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	508	37¢	$188	0xbddb9e…
06-02 14:41:53	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	508	37¢	$188	0xd9b8a1…
06-02 14:28:19	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0xc40b16…
06-02 02:13:59	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0x3e6fbb…
06-01 19:27:56	Will Loopscale launch a token by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x632fcd…
06-01 12:00:36	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	127	97¢	$123	0xbd079c…
05-31 22:57:53	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x2aa283…
05-31 10:36:19	Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026	Yes	BUY	12	28¢	$3	0xa132cf…
05-31 10:16:31	Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	61	38¢	$23	0xd976a2…
05-31 10:16:21	Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	80	37¢	$29	0x11b627…