Loud-Outhouse — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

43.1%

Resolved

Trades

580

lifetime

Volume

$5.29K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-28

last 07-06 01:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Crypto

62% 100% +$0

Other

17% 50% +$0

Sports

12% — —

Politics

9% 0% $-0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

57 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No		+7	$5	76¢	$5	+$0	06-04 21:37

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	17	$122	86	86	+0	open	—	03-09 03:41
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	14	$102	76	76	+0	open	—	03-08 10:15
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	12	$94	50	50	+0	open	—	03-03 15:11
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	10	$72	37	37	+0	open	—	02-28 03:21
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	10	$64	51	40	+12	open	—	02-27 17:28
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	8	$58	32	32	+0	open	—	02-20 04:56
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	7	$50	43	43	+0	Yes	$-0	02-17 23:45
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	6	$50	31	31	+0	open	—	02-07 03:12
GTA VI released before June 2026?	6	$48	25	25	+0	open	—	03-04 03:21
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	7	$45	34	34	+0	open	—	02-16 16:47
lal rea ray 2026 02 01 ray	6	$43	30	30	+0	open	—	02-01 14:05
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	6	$42	29	29	+0	open	—	02-05 19:47
bitcoin up or down march 5 12am et	2	$36	18	18	+0	open	—	03-05 05:55
por spo nac 2026 02 01 nac	3	$35	18	18	+0	open	—	02-01 14:05
will bitcoin dip to 75k in january 2026	5	$31	41	0	+41	open	—	02-01 03:17
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	4	$30	21	21	+0	open	—	02-01 17:45
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	4	$30	15	15	+0	open	—	02-19 03:53
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	4	$26	13	13	+0	open	—	02-17 14:42
lal elc bar 2026 01 31 elc	4	$24	22	9	+13	open	—	01-31 19:54
sea cre int 2026 02 01 cre	3	$24	13	13	+0	open	—	02-01 14:05
will wagner moura win best actor at the 98th academy awards	2	$23	24	0	+24	open	—	03-14 19:16
bitcoin up or down march 25 2026 2pm et	2	$22	13	13	+0	open	—	03-25 18:56
Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?	5	$22	12	12	+0	No	$-0	02-27 10:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$22	40	40	+0	open	—	06-14 21:57
bitcoin up or down march 9 9pm et	2	$22	11	11	+0	open	—	03-10 01:58
mex ame nec 2026 01 31 nec	3	$22	16	8	+8	open	—	01-31 22:37
israel closes its airspace by june 8	2	$20	16	16	+0	open	—	06-08 07:08
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	2	$20	39	39	+0	open	—	06-20 13:13
bitcoin up or down march 3 5pm et	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	03-03 23:02
bitcoin up or down march 9 4am et	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	03-09 08:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-06 01:51:11	mlb bos laa 2026 07 05	Los Angeles Angels	BUY	14	67¢	$9	0xf296a0…
07-05 15:18:59	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x0d4880…
07-04 23:36:08	mlb bos laa 2026 07 04 spread away 1pt5	Los Angeles Angels	BUY	16	50¢	$8	0x024a92…
06-28 21:18:38	mlb chc mil 2026 06 28	Chicago Cubs	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0xdf64c5…
06-27 00:37:26	mlb cin pit 2026 06 26 spread away 1pt5	Cincinnati Reds	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0xab7d4c…
06-25 02:45:52	mlb atl sd 2026 06 24	San Diego Padres	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x7a79ff…
06-24 21:46:04	mlb bos col 2026 06 24	Boston Red Sox	BUY	27	6¢	$2	0xa0dd72…
06-24 02:51:32	mlb bos col 2026 06 23 spread away 4pt5	Colorado Rockies	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x9f0198…
06-24 01:54:28	mlb chc nym 2026 06 22	Chicago Cubs	BUY	9	69¢	$6	0xd2be26…
06-24 01:08:59	mlb phi wsh 2026 06 23 spread home 2pt5	Philadelphia Phillies	BUY	8	93¢	$8	0xa4d794…
06-24 00:22:46	mlb kc tb 2026 06 23	Tampa Bay Rays	BUY	93	4¢	$4	0x62a4fc…
06-22 23:22:07	mlb hou tor 2026 06 22 total 9pt5	Under	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x0491fa…
06-21 18:12:05	mlb stl kc 2026 06 21 total 8pt5	Over	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xe15540…
06-21 18:12:04	mlb stl kc 2026 06 21 total 8pt5	Over	BUY	8	69¢	$5	0x4563e0…
06-21 03:42:17	mlb pit col 2026 06 20	Colorado Rockies	BUY	13	91¢	$12	0xb9a8f7…
06-20 19:43:14	mlb tor chc 2026 06 20 total 5pt5	Over	BUY	10	76¢	$7	0x0ee539…
06-20 13:13:40	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	39	27¢	$10	0xb7d242…
06-20 00:04:41	mlb mil atl 2026 06 19 spread away 1pt5	Atlanta Braves	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0xb78de7…
06-19 21:57:35	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	39	25¢	$10	0xa5d552…
06-18 19:28:19	mlb cle mil 2026 06 18 spread home 1pt5	Cleveland Guardians	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x4db877…
06-17 19:13:46	mlb sd stl 2026 06 17 spread away 4pt5	St. Louis Cardinals	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x87be40…
06-17 18:01:52	mlb nym cin 2026 06 17 total 10pt5	Under	BUY	12	30¢	$4	0x7c0c26…
06-17 18:00:58	mlb nym cin 2026 06 17 total 10pt5	Under	BUY	12	29¢	$3	0x6f661a…
06-17 18:00:05	mlb nym cin 2026 06 17 total 10pt5	Under	BUY	12	27¢	$3	0xb1a012…
06-17 17:59:11	mlb nym cin 2026 06 17 total 10pt5	Under	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0x909cd9…
06-17 03:45:07	mlb laa ari 2026 06 16 total 8pt5	Under	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x68d566…
06-17 00:41:43	mlb det hou 2026 06 16	Houston Astros	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x41efab…
06-17 00:00:41	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	7	74¢	$5	0x12afb7…
06-16 23:32:47	mlb sf atl 2026 06 16 spread home 1pt5	Atlanta Braves	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xc80bd0…
06-14 21:57:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	40	30¢	$12	0xf3a1b8…
06-13 20:07:55	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x51c6d3…
06-13 16:51:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x2c5e02…
06-12 17:57:54	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	7	86¢	$6	0x925724…
06-12 16:26:18	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x6aedaf…
06-12 11:02:24	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x473359…
06-11 02:40:06	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10 spread away 11pt5	Spurs	BUY	7	65¢	$5	0x9a495a…
06-11 02:35:42	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Spurs	BUY	7	84¢	$6	0xacb6ea…
06-11 00:48:19	mlb min det 2026 06 10	Detroit Tigers	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xb38a84…
06-11 00:47:39	mlb min det 2026 06 10 total 9pt5	Over	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xd55b51…
06-10 03:58:36	mlb cin sd 2026 06 09 total 5pt5	Under	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x4b04ce…
06-10 00:51:04	mlb ari mia 2026 06 09	Miami Marlins	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xd1af34…
06-09 23:40:10	mlb ari mia 2026 06 09 total 10pt5	Under	BUY	11	50¢	$5	0x7ed4b9…
06-09 02:52:01	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08 spread away 7pt5	Spurs	BUY	16	55¢	$9	0xcee606…
06-08 07:08:34	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	SELL	16	72¢	$12	0x396402…
06-08 04:02:22	israel closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	16	52¢	$9	0xb6a40b…
06-07 21:03:06	mlb wsh ari 2026 06 07 total 6pt5	Over	BUY	8	79¢	$6	0xc3fddb…
06-07 20:08:54	mlb mil col 2026 06 07	Colorado Rockies	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x7e12bd…
06-06 17:32:51	mlb sea det 2026 06 06	Seattle Mariners	BUY	13	55¢	$7	0x8dc4a8…
06-05 00:35:21	mlb tor atl 2026 06 04 spread away 1pt5	Toronto Blue Jays	BUY	16	52¢	$8	0x761fda…
06-04 21:37:43	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x2d007d…
06-04 01:59:10	mlb tex stl 2026 06 03 total 7pt5	Over	BUY	16	90¢	$14	0xab8441…
06-03 01:50:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x25b801…
06-02 20:55:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	13	99¢	$12	0x9383a7…
06-01 11:59:52	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	89¢	$6	0xd58685…
06-01 10:51:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x8ce140…
05-31 19:08:26	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$9	0xe2ca51…
05-31 16:58:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xeb4795…
05-30 22:52:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xbece85…
05-30 05:50:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x103c66…
05-29 21:50:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x34ce1d…
05-29 15:43:21	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xdf4374…
05-29 07:50:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xf4ddcd…
05-29 02:50:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x45fd12…
05-29 01:51:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x617d49…
05-28 20:51:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x2a31e0…
05-28 19:50:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x0d600a…
05-28 07:57:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xfd09a8…
05-27 22:02:35	CA Mineiro vs. Academia Puerto Cabello: O/U 5.5	Under	SELL	13	9¢	$1	0x979330…
05-27 19:16:42	CA Mineiro vs. Academia Puerto Cabello: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	13	95¢	$12	0xe42842…
05-27 16:50:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	17	88¢	$15	0x654b0b…
05-26 08:47:28	LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs	Hanwha Life Esports	BUY	18	96¢	$17	0xb1425a…
05-25 19:55:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x4dc993…
05-24 21:50:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x768aed…
05-22 22:50:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x13ab62…
05-21 05:50:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1AM ET	Down	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xc85526…
05-21 02:58:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xf6535a…
05-20 05:50:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x79b681…
05-20 01:50:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9PM ET	Down	SELL	14	25¢	$4	0xde6c97…
05-20 01:50:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	14	75¢	$11	0x14df18…
05-19 16:50:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x2ea283…
05-19 15:14:51	Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 5.5	Under	BUY	7	94¢	$7	0x66d300…
05-19 11:50:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xb6bb7d…
05-19 03:50:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x8237fb…
05-19 01:50:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x7aca65…
05-18 11:50:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xbb4cd7…
05-18 07:54:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x45cdd0…
05-18 02:51:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xfc9c7d…
05-18 01:51:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x95580a…
05-17 20:53:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4PM ET	Down	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xfbe256…
05-17 10:50:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x3fc883…
05-17 03:50:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x1d2ce8…
05-16 11:51:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xe7fa73…
05-15 19:57:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x421d23…
05-15 17:56:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xfda2a6…
05-15 12:50:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x221ffe…
05-15 09:50:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x0ac304…
05-15 07:51:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x10b12e…
05-15 06:50:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xb5e6d4…
05-15 03:50:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xf65dae…
05-15 01:50:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xaba891…