Realized P&L
+$3
Unrealized P&L
+$2
Hit rate
66.5%
Resolved
190
Trades
1,707
lifetime
Volume
$1.28K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$1
Open exposure
$19
17 positions
First seen
2026-01-29
last 11-01 10:39
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 91 days
Categories
Politics
61% 58% +$9
Other
35% 68% -$9
Tech
3% 100% +$3
Sports
1% 50% +$0
Crypto
0% 100% +$0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
38 active days in 12wk • peak 30 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? No -7 -$7 96¢ $-7 +$0 07-15 08:40
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +8 $1 25¢ $2 +$1 09-23 12:58
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes +6 $1 26¢ $1 +$1 11-01 10:39
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +2 $1 70¢ $1 $0 10-29 14:06
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes +2 $1 74¢ $1 +$0 10-20 18:58
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +4 $1 28¢ $1 +$0 10-29 21:03
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? No +1 $1 96¢ $1 +$0 05-02 06:41
UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026? No +1 $1 96¢ $1 +$0 05-16 17:45
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? No +1 $1 94¢ $1 +$0 10-10 13:15
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027? No +1 $1 92¢ $1 +$0 10-21 18:34
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? No +2 $1 28¢ $0 $0 10-27 12:50
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? Yes +4 $1 12¢ $0 $0 10-03 02:59
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No +0 $0 90¢ $0 $0 10-26 14:43
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No +0 $0 29¢ $0 $0 10-22 16:58
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +0 $0 72¢ $0 +$0 10-23 11:43
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +0 $0 98¢ $0 +$0 09-28 05:58
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +0 $0 93¢ $0 +$0 06-19 21:05