Realized P&L
-$39
Unrealized P&L
+$1
Hit rate
41.7%
Resolved
76
Trades
127
lifetime
Volume
$792
lifetime
Avg / trade
$6
Open exposure
$101
20 positions
First seen
2026-02-20
last 10-31 22:36
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 34 days
Categories
Other
48% 59% -$27
Politics
47% 32% -$7
Sports
2% — —
Crypto
1% 50% -$5
Tech
1% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
9 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +26 $5 30¢ $8 +$3 10-28 18:32
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? No +6 $5 90¢ $5 +$0 10-07 07:53
Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat? No +12 $5 43¢ $5 +$0 10-31 10:21
Will the Republican Party win the FL-25 House seat? No +6 $5 80¢ $5 +$0 10-29 00:42
Jack Barton announced as next James Bond? No +5 $5 98¢ $5 +$0 10-09 09:55
Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election? No +9 $5 55¢ $5 +$0 10-29 13:39
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? No +8 $5 66¢ $5 +$0 10-29 16:27
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027? No +5 $5 95¢ $5 +$0 10-30 04:16
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +5 $5 98¢ $5 +$0 10-28 19:16
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? No +7 $5 74¢ $5 +$0 10-31 08:21
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No +5 $5 96¢ $5 +$0 10-28 10:51
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? No +7 $5 69¢ $5 +$0 10-29 23:56
Will the Republican Party win the NC-11 House seat? No +6 $5 85¢ $5 +$0 10-31 16:23
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +5 $5 94¢ $5 $0 10-29 12:59
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? No +7 $5 74¢ $5 $0 10-28 21:29
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? No +5 $5 96¢ $5 $0 10-06 01:43
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +6 $5 82¢ $5 $0 10-06 01:43
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? No +6 $5 72¢ $5 $0 10-08 18:48
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat? No +22 $5 20¢ $4 -$1 10-28 19:16
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +132 $5 2¢ $2 -$3 10-28 19:17