Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$394

Unrealized P&L

-$9

Hit rate

62.4%

Resolved

283

Trades

1,462

lifetime

Volume

$11.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$142

7 positions

First seen

2026-03-03

last 10-27 19:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 79 days

Categories

Politics

72% 75% +$927

Other

28% 53% -$528

Sports

1% 0% -$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	+96	$24	36¢	$35	+$11	10-10 17:10
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+28	$24	96¢	$27	+$3	10-20 12:35
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+352	$25	8¢	$26	+$2	10-27 19:52
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	+28	$25	72¢	$20	-$5	09-22 21:12
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+86	$24	18¢	$16	-$9	07-19 01:07
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	+55	$25	28¢	$15	-$10	10-27 15:46
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+733	$4	0¢	$3	-$1	10-18 14:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	10	$513	1,069	947	+122	Yes	+$535	04-07 23:10
will iran strike israel on march 10	21	$374	1,150	1,113	+37	Yes	+$211	03-12 15:13
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	36	$355	451	394	+57	Yes	-$3	04-03 23:30
highest temperature in london on march 6 2026 20c	51	$295	1,632	135	+1,496	No	-$25	03-06 16:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	29	$240	358	358	+0	Yes	+$41	06-14 22:31
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	33	$222	308	281	+27	No	-$1	03-26 21:01
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	32	$209	272	201	+71	Yes	+$131	04-14 23:20
highest temperature in wellington on march 4 2026 13c	80	$193	3,615	0	+3,615	No	-$57	03-03 07:36
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	15	$189	237	237	+0	Yes	+$46	06-14 23:24
highest temperature in wellington on march 6 2026 16c	37	$167	334	0	+334	No	-$6	03-05 09:41
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	12	$164	232	232	+0	No	+$14	03-30 00:20
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	15	$151	177	177	+0	Yes	+$1	04-07 21:53
will another country strike iran by march 31 833	25	$151	173	132	+41	No	+$1	03-09 14:20
highest temperature in wellington on march 5 2026 15c	50	$141	1,219	0	+1,219	No	-$30	03-04 07:07
will uae strike iran by march 31	26	$134	272	125	+147	No	-$16	03-18 12:01
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026?	14	$108	89	57	+32	No	+$8	04-10 10:10
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	9	$105	515	149	+366	No	+$8	04-15 17:49
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	7	$104	167	167	+0	Yes	+$4	04-07 21:56
Iran leadership change by May 31?	12	$96	312	100	+211	No	-$22	04-24 16:44
iran confirmed not to participate in 2026 fifa world cup by march 31	7	$95	107	107	+0	No	-$5	03-12 15:11
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	8	$90	120	120	+0	No	-$9	04-23 06:58
Iran leadership change by April 30?	24	$88	181	111	+70	No	-$12	04-06 01:04
highest temperature in wellington on march 3 2026 15c	50	$84	512	0	+512	No	-$23	03-03 07:27
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	16	$82	95	95	+0	open	—	10-27 23:00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	37	$82	428	119	+309	Yes	-$17	06-14 21:30
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	9	$76	107	107	+0	Yes	+$5	04-08 13:38
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	11	$71	95	95	+1	No	+$22	05-29 18:48
will iran strike lebanon in march	3	$68	101	0	+101	Yes	-$9	03-24 13:48
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	2	$68	133	133	+0	No	+$18	04-05 12:37
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	2	$67	86	86	+0	Yes	+$21	05-30 17:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 23:00:45	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	14	59¢	$8	0x96706a…
10-27 19:52:47	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	39	7¢	$3	0xd20125…
10-27 19:52:47	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	312	7¢	$22	0x43f26b…
10-27 19:31:35	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	27	95¢	$26	0x302db2…
10-27 15:46:03	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	43¢	$10	0x30a069…
10-20 12:35:32	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	28	87¢	$24	0xc739a2…
10-19 22:33:53	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	32	91¢	$30	0xd0911f…
10-19 16:49:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	8	36¢	$3	0x8844d0…
10-19 16:39:48	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	3	33¢	$1	0x5016c3…
10-19 16:39:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	0	34¢	$0	0xaed5a9…
10-19 16:39:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	0	34¢	$0	0x835f46…
10-19 16:39:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	0	34¢	$0	0x3aa1c9…
10-19 16:39:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	0	34¢	$0	0x0cfe47…
10-19 16:37:53	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	8	32¢	$2	0x07cada…
10-19 16:36:29	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	2	32¢	$1	0x121838…
10-19 16:34:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	1	35¢	$0	0x7b17ad…
10-19 16:29:27	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	32	76¢	$25	0xb0d863…
10-19 16:28:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	6	34¢	$2	0xf933b9…
10-19 16:28:29	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	5	36¢	$2	0x9c82db…
10-19 16:28:29	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	5	36¢	$2	0x4a203d…
10-19 16:27:38	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	1	32¢	$0	0xdcc881…
10-19 16:24:51	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	0	32¢	$0	0xd97273…
10-19 16:24:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	11	34¢	$4	0x3dfec4…
10-19 16:21:18	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	0	36¢	$0	0x18054e…
10-19 16:21:11	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	0	37¢	$0	0x780370…
10-19 16:21:03	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	2	37¢	$1	0x4d85ae…
10-19 16:20:47	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	0	37¢	$0	0xc15942…
10-19 16:20:47	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	0	37¢	$0	0xa1ec84…
10-19 16:20:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	0	37¢	$0	0x706d74…
10-19 16:20:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	0	37¢	$0	0x52ce46…
10-18 14:58:21	Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	733	0¢	$4	0xcba127…
10-16 08:59:40	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	61	30¢	$18	0x65189b…
10-14 22:19:28	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	61	28¢	$17	0x4f3bea…
10-14 21:30:54	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	10	72¢	$7	0x4d30a9…
10-12 06:37:11	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	1	68¢	$0	0xd658d0…
10-12 06:33:05	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	0	68¢	$0	0x217241…
10-12 06:33:03	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	0	68¢	$0	0x2f29f1…
10-12 06:21:15	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	0	68¢	$0	0x7f1a0a…
10-12 04:38:02	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	0	68¢	$0	0xd7963f…
10-12 04:27:26	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	0	68¢	$0	0x828428…
10-12 04:05:00	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	3	68¢	$2	0xf3d3d8…
10-12 03:14:32	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	0	68¢	$0	0x09c390…
10-12 03:14:29	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	0	68¢	$0	0xd024af…
10-12 03:14:20	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	4	68¢	$2	0x6c2c4e…
10-12 01:19:09	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	2	68¢	$1	0xb81c25…
10-10 17:10:03	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	96	25¢	$24	0x607912…
10-10 17:09:49	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	SELL	57	42¢	$24	0xc2c5d3…
10-08 18:32:59	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	BUY	57	43¢	$25	0xd10f3c…
10-07 18:08:24	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	24	98¢	$24	0x76a910…
10-04 19:00:52	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	No	BUY	13	28¢	$4	0x6f7811…
10-03 17:42:29	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x1068cf…
09-29 00:31:45	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$1	0xc17fa5…
09-27 19:42:56	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	No	SELL	7	46¢	$3	0xb174d7…
09-27 19:42:51	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	No	SELL	0	46¢	$0	0xae865e…
09-27 19:42:51	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	No	SELL	0	46¢	$0	0xadd076…
09-27 19:42:50	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 31 20260917	No	SELL	0	46¢	$0	0xc1cdba…
09-27 19:07:21	Will Israel vs. Republic of Ireland end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	192	12¢	$23	0xbd41c2…
09-22 21:12:13	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	BUY	28	88¢	$25	0x4cb052…
09-22 10:00:30	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	SELL	17	91¢	$15	0x25c2a5…
09-22 09:58:46	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	SELL	17	89¢	$15	0xfc5865…
09-22 09:58:04	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	SELL	6	71¢	$4	0x7eb017…
09-22 09:57:13	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0x554622…
09-22 09:53:42	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	47	18¢	$9	0x343b61…
09-22 09:53:28	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	17¢	$1	0xd37bdb…
09-22 09:53:27	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	17¢	$0	0xb2b234…
09-22 09:53:18	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	18¢	$0	0xe1a5d2…
09-22 09:53:16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	18¢	$0	0xf542cf…
09-22 09:53:16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	18¢	$1	0xe253a8…
09-22 09:52:52	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	63	17¢	$11	0x322f10…
09-22 00:28:40	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	23¢	$12	0x8460eb…
09-20 00:09:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?	No	BUY	142	17¢	$24	0xe02e66…
09-19 23:21:55	Trump out as President by September 30?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0xce6616…
09-19 10:37:34	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	47	52¢	$25	0x72798b…
09-18 14:59:10	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	27	91¢	$25	0x0787a7…
09-18 14:48:31	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	46	10¢	$5	0xa3cf50…
09-18 14:48:31	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0x525986…
09-18 14:48:30	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0xd4a1cf…
09-18 14:48:30	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0x60b49e…
09-18 14:48:30	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	10¢	$5	0x3208ae…
09-14 18:21:30	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	52¢	$10	0x407956…
09-14 15:34:18	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	9¢	$22	0x0fedbb…
09-13 21:11:57	atp zverev shelton 2026 09 13	Ben Shelton	SELL	9	27¢	$2	0xbcbb2e…
09-13 21:11:57	atp zverev shelton 2026 09 13	Ben Shelton	SELL	19	28¢	$5	0x716f61…
09-13 21:11:57	atp zverev shelton 2026 09 13	Ben Shelton	SELL	58	28¢	$16	0x22eca5…
09-13 21:11:55	atp zverev shelton 2026 09 13	Ben Shelton	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0x66ddb5…
09-13 21:11:55	atp zverev shelton 2026 09 13	Ben Shelton	SELL	37	27¢	$10	0x585af0…
09-13 20:34:46	atp zverev shelton 2026 09 13	Ben Shelton	BUY	134	12¢	$16	0xbcb363…
09-07 23:55:01	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	18¢	$22	0x0ff693…
09-07 18:14:01	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	49¢	$24	0x528418…
09-06 17:50:25	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	26	94¢	$25	0xaa7f9c…
09-05 19:58:28	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	34	72¢	$25	0xac4e8e…
09-04 17:29:27	dtrump out as president by september 30	No	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x06a383…
09-03 10:29:16	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	12¢	$0	0xb7e265…
09-03 10:26:49	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	12¢	$2	0xb957cb…
09-03 10:12:34	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	12¢	$0	0x034551…
08-31 18:11:48	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	13¢	$0	0x91b702…
08-31 16:59:16	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x2acf3d…
08-31 16:43:52	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	41	13¢	$5	0x60eeb3…
08-31 12:55:39	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0x4a49d8…
08-31 11:45:48	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	13¢	$3	0xa6b813…