Fair-Espalier — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

121

lifetime

Volume

$1.86K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-16

last 06-15 23:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

45% 0% —

Politics

30% — —

Sports

21% 0% $-0

Crypto

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will iowa state win the 2026 ncaa tournament	4	$136	71	71	+0	open	—	03-22 03:06
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	6	$121	63	63	+0	open	—	06-07 19:36
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	9	$113	137	137	+0	open	—	04-27 00:36
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	7	$84	81	81	+0	open	—	06-07 23:57
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	5	$83	60	60	+0	open	—	06-13 22:31
Iran Nuke before 2027?	4	$79	44	44	+0	open	—	06-10 15:59
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	7	$73	105	105	+0	open	—	04-22 06:18
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$71	36	36	+0	No	+$0	03-23 09:31
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	5	$66	69	69	+0	open	—	06-03 04:45
will min woo lee win the 2026 masters tournament	3	$65	33	33	+0	open	—	03-17 02:15
will bitcoin dip to 50k in march 2026	3	$65	33	33	+0	open	—	03-21 21:41
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	3	$65	40	40	+0	open	—	03-17 18:48
will cameron young win the 2026 masters tournament	3	$64	33	33	+0	open	—	03-16 20:52
Will Sweden win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	2	$63	33	33	+0	open	—	03-27 02:59
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	2	$61	31	31	+0	open	—	05-15 03:04
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	6	$59	72	72	+0	No	$-0	04-25 20:18
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	2	$56	29	29	+0	open	—	04-21 18:56
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	3	$55	29	29	+0	open	—	05-08 18:44
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$55	28	28	+0	open	—	04-27 09:14
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$55	28	28	+0	open	—	05-10 00:39
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	2	$55	28	28	+0	open	—	04-26 02:38
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	2	$48	26	26	+0	open	—	06-17 01:09
Will Alberta join the US?	4	$44	23	23	+0	open	—	06-04 18:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	2	$43	26	26	+0	open	—	06-14 18:01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$41	21	21	+0	open	—	05-27 03:43
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	3	$40	25	25	+0	open	—	06-06 05:54
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	3	$40	45	45	+0	open	—	06-09 19:10
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	4	$39	81	81	+0	open	—	06-15 23:55
will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	2	$36	19	19	+0	open	—	06-12 18:49
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	1	$10	12	0	+12	open	—	06-13 10:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-17 01:09:17	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	26	92¢	$24	0xe0d175…
06-17 01:08:31	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	26	92¢	$24	0x530de1…
06-15 23:55:55	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	81	24¢	$19	0x1b00a3…
06-15 18:36:10	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	24¢	$0	0x52c343…
06-15 18:36:10	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	24¢	$8	0x43b09d…
06-15 18:36:10	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	24¢	$11	0x323562…
06-14 18:01:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	26	84¢	$22	0xd7e7ac…
06-14 16:57:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	26	82¢	$21	0x5eaeaf…
06-13 22:31:03	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	75¢	$6	0xd1eb38…
06-13 22:31:03	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0x9c7702…
06-13 20:29:19	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	77¢	$22	0x539e6d…
06-13 10:45:45	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0xaea135…
06-13 01:02:31	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	64¢	$20	0xa11668…
06-12 22:36:51	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	62¢	$20	0x9511d0…
06-12 18:49:10	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	SELL	19	96¢	$18	0xd11fbd…
06-12 16:52:03	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	BUY	19	94¢	$18	0x3ee00a…
06-10 15:59:55	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	24	90¢	$22	0xad347e…
06-10 14:25:28	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	BUY	24	90¢	$22	0xba282e…
06-10 08:40:03	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	2¢	$0	0x01ee2b…
06-10 05:18:27	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	71	2¢	$1	0xdf23fb…
06-10 03:27:31	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0xc71d3e…
06-10 03:27:31	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	2¢	$1	0xc694ba…
06-10 03:27:31	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	2¢	$1	0x6a3011…
06-09 19:10:52	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	SELL	45	44¢	$20	0xa0d837…
06-09 14:10:58	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	BUY	13	45¢	$6	0x8736c0…
06-09 14:10:19	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	No	BUY	32	44¢	$14	0xe162dc…
06-09 03:24:36	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0x6f1214…
06-09 02:01:45	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xa61fc7…
06-07 23:57:30	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	40	54¢	$22	0x4641a5…
06-07 23:56:43	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	40	54¢	$22	0x1d889e…
06-07 19:36:24	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	22	97¢	$21	0xe72ef9…
06-07 17:57:33	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	22	97¢	$21	0x250299…
06-07 00:07:49	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0xdd903a…
06-06 20:45:25	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x1ca4bd…
06-06 09:08:03	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	21	92¢	$19	0x71d939…
06-06 08:00:31	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x382bcd…
06-06 05:54:06	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	6	80¢	$5	0x82daa7…
06-06 05:53:49	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	19	80¢	$15	0xfcb977…
06-06 01:16:12	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0xee4ec6…
06-05 00:21:34	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x824996…
06-05 00:21:27	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	18	49¢	$9	0x2ab7ed…
06-05 00:21:25	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	13	49¢	$6	0x1fc040…
06-04 20:36:13	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	21	50¢	$11	0xec5942…
06-04 20:36:13	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xbfecae…
06-04 18:24:33	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	17	96¢	$16	0x084a0c…
06-04 17:09:45	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	17	96¢	$16	0x342a04…
06-04 01:15:15	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0xc20999…
06-04 01:14:22	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0x3eb47b…
06-03 04:45:26	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	45	47¢	$21	0xbf05f5…
06-03 02:57:54	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	38	48¢	$18	0x55f9c2…
06-03 02:57:17	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0x48a7ea…
06-02 08:15:41	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	24	48¢	$12	0xd0cec3…
06-02 06:52:51	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	24	48¢	$12	0xae6088…
05-27 03:43:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	21	98¢	$21	0xca4dcf…
05-27 00:09:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x82bb3a…
05-25 01:59:19	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	58	3¢	$2	0x8a24c4…
05-25 00:52:26	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xfd06dd…
05-25 00:52:26	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0xc0b7dc…
05-25 00:52:26	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	38	3¢	$1	0x05c01f…
05-18 03:16:38	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	SELL	67	4¢	$3	0x38fb3c…
05-18 01:23:44	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x6e673a…
05-18 01:23:44	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Yes	BUY	47	4¢	$2	0x29cc4d…
05-15 03:04:17	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	31	98¢	$30	0xdc304b…
05-15 03:03:31	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0x4e1b8d…
05-10 00:39:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	28	98¢	$27	0x9072ba…
05-09 21:12:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0x11f28a…
05-08 18:44:46	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	21	96¢	$20	0x237d20…
05-08 18:44:46	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	8	96¢	$8	0x0e006e…
05-08 14:39:09	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	29	96¢	$28	0xacaeef…
04-27 09:14:20	Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	28	99¢	$28	0x6b322f…
04-27 08:23:50	Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xad2887…
04-27 00:36:10	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	SELL	81	2¢	$1	0xf372c5…
04-26 23:13:16	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xcad730…
04-26 23:13:16	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	BUY	42	2¢	$1	0x597a64…
04-26 23:13:16	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	BUY	34	2¢	$1	0x25686d…
04-26 06:44:38	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xd6b3f3…
04-26 06:44:38	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	SELL	26	98¢	$26	0x2ca9a8…
04-26 04:09:04	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xc9e629…
04-26 02:38:46	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	28	98¢	$27	0x8c70fe…
04-25 22:40:06	Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	28	98¢	$28	0x384234…
04-25 20:18:26	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	9	96¢	$9	0x51f5b7…
04-25 20:18:26	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0x3670fc…
04-25 16:48:48	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0x429af0…
04-25 16:48:48	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x099986…
04-25 11:28:34	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	43	4¢	$2	0x3a7171…
04-25 09:19:40	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	43	4¢	$2	0xe4855c…
04-22 06:18:50	Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	73	12¢	$9	0x460726…
04-22 04:58:08	Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	23	12¢	$3	0xebdf82…
04-22 04:57:58	Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	33	12¢	$4	0x363b98…
04-22 04:57:58	Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	17	12¢	$2	0x1b6f4f…
04-21 18:56:18	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	29	96¢	$28	0x4a03be…
04-21 17:23:22	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	29	96¢	$28	0x505b13…
04-21 14:03:06	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	SELL	28	99¢	$28	0xaf31ff…
04-21 10:35:26	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	No	BUY	28	99¢	$28	0xee2920…
04-21 07:05:32	Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0x450401…
04-21 07:05:32	Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	22	87¢	$19	0x0152df…
04-21 04:53:54	Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	32	86¢	$28	0xd4a7a2…
03-31 21:39:11	Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?	No	SELL	40	3¢	$1	0x1288da…
03-31 21:38:25	Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?	No	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0xcf0698…
03-27 02:59:45	Will Sweden win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	33	96¢	$32	0xb791ce…