Scarce-Harpsichord — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.28K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

69.8%

Resolved

348

Trades

2,544

lifetime

Volume

$16.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-25

last 10-20 02:18

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 66 days

Categories

Other

73% 68% -$521

Crypto

15% 48% -$78

Sports

8% 0% -$285

Politics

4% 75% -$401

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1,118	$997	82,831	82,831	+0	No	-$163	06-20 00:53
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	2	$786	394	394	+0	No	+$1	06-26 09:07
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	2	$610	310	310	+0	No	+$9	06-12 16:11
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 18?	7	$417	700	700	+0	Yes	-$311	06-18 12:31
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	2	$413	207	207	+0	No	+$1	07-21 12:19
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	1	$406	540	0	+540	Yes	-$406	06-14 04:31
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?	2	$392	435	0	+435	No	+$43	06-26 09:12
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	406	$288	22,142	22,142	+0	No	-$110	06-17 01:06
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	1	$284	290	0	+290	No	+$6	06-30 12:18
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	1	$270	276	0	+276	No	+$6	08-22 10:44
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	2	$266	270	0	+270	No	+$4	08-20 23:35
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 20?	2	$261	133	133	+0	No	+$4	08-20 00:23
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	1	$260	262	0	+262	No	+$2	08-18 12:05
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 10?	20	$253	390	390	+0	Yes	+$20	07-09 17:52
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 8?	3	$253	130	130	+0	Yes	+$7	07-08 10:18
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 20?	7	$245	200	200	+0	Yes	+$153	06-21 22:25
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	2	$244	254	0	+254	No	+$10	08-10 01:04
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	1	$240	245	0	+245	No	+$4	08-06 12:24
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	5	$234	240	0	+240	No	+$6	08-03 23:47
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?	2	$227	120	120	+0	No	+$8	07-11 09:27
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	8	$224	234	0	+234	No	+$10	08-02 22:42
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	4	$221	237	0	+237	No	+$16	08-31 03:33
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	1	$213	214	0	+214	No	+$1	07-07 12:01
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	1	$210	210	0	+210	No	+$0	07-23 03:06
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	1	$207	210	0	+210	No	+$3	07-21 12:21
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	1	$200	207	0	+207	No	+$7	07-18 23:25
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 61°F or below on May 28?	2	$199	100	100	+0	No	+$0	05-26 13:27
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 10?	8	$191	390	390	+0	No	+$4	07-09 23:26
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	6	$189	265	0	+265	Yes	-$189	10-20 02:18
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	10	$168	87	87	+0	No	+$3	05-26 23:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-20 02:18:11	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	55	48¢	$27	0x0d0571…
10-20 02:11:05	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	19	48¢	$9	0xb17791…
10-20 02:06:53	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	26	50¢	$13	0x1f96a3…
10-20 02:06:45	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	15	50¢	$7	0x7a6e4a…
10-19 01:46:33	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	105	88¢	$93	0x51c1a1…
10-19 01:46:24	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	45	88¢	$40	0x206be8…
10-14 02:01:07	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on October 14?	No	BUY	127	98¢	$125	0x67fd6b…
10-11 00:09:33	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 11?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x2d15fd…
10-11 00:09:16	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on October 11?	No	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0x6fe214…
10-03 02:23:57	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	117	89¢	$104	0x1f94a4…
09-27 00:19:05	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on September 27?	No	BUY	14	88¢	$13	0x6c51f0…
09-26 00:11:45	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026?	No	BUY	76	94¢	$72	0x0d5c1b…
09-19 01:28:33	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 19?	No	BUY	39	99¢	$39	0xfefa5d…
09-13 09:43:46	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	169	98¢	$165	0x8cbae3…
09-11 13:31:01	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	No	BUY	70	99¢	$70	0xc54813…
09-01 10:40:00	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	79	81¢	$64	0x46632c…
08-31 03:33:46	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	No	BUY	9	93¢	$8	0xe569be…
08-31 03:33:36	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	No	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0x0e426f…
08-31 03:33:28	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	No	BUY	9	93¢	$8	0x26ec83…
08-31 03:33:04	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	No	BUY	19	93¢	$18	0x950548…
08-31 03:24:48	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 31?	No	SELL	60	100¢	$60	0x600815…
08-30 23:32:24	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 31?	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xcf51bd…
08-30 23:32:18	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 31?	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x934744…
08-30 23:32:13	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 31?	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xdd1cb0…
08-30 23:32:07	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 31?	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xe3d7f3…
08-30 23:32:01	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 31?	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x2c71d4…
08-30 23:31:57	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 31?	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x406005…
08-25 00:18:33	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on August 25?	No	BUY	14	92¢	$13	0xe76404…
08-25 00:17:37	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	No	BUY	80	98¢	$78	0x1d86e8…
08-25 00:17:24	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	No	BUY	80	98¢	$78	0xc1ded8…
08-24 14:08:40	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?	No	BUY	70	99¢	$69	0xe27ed7…
08-24 14:08:34	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?	No	BUY	70	99¢	$69	0x5c4736…
08-22 10:44:27	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	No	BUY	276	98¢	$270	0x30b238…
08-20 23:35:06	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	No	BUY	170	98¢	$167	0x993d14…
08-20 23:34:33	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xa28323…
08-20 00:23:37	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 20?	No	SELL	133	100¢	$133	0xabe777…
08-19 22:49:01	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 20?	No	BUY	133	97¢	$129	0x9c6fe9…
08-18 12:05:13	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	No	BUY	262	99¢	$260	0x0ff3a9…
08-16 23:50:28	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 17?	No	BUY	19	84¢	$16	0x2b4716…
08-16 23:48:07	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 17?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x3b7fe9…
08-10 01:04:00	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	BUY	240	96¢	$230	0xcf6223…
08-10 01:03:12	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	BUY	14	96¢	$13	0x08da53…
08-06 12:24:21	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	BUY	245	98¢	$240	0x82d158…
08-03 23:47:00	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	No	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0xf9b059…
08-03 23:46:44	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0x23f84a…
08-03 23:46:36	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0x7cda9d…
08-03 23:46:29	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	No	BUY	80	97¢	$78	0x6046d1…
08-03 23:46:21	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	No	BUY	49	97¢	$48	0x64b1cb…
08-02 22:42:50	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	No	BUY	137	96¢	$131	0x37c770…
08-02 22:41:59	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x3c811e…
08-02 22:41:53	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x1f813c…
08-02 22:41:48	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xb0a354…
08-02 22:41:42	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0x3a4879…
08-02 22:41:32	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xcb45aa…
08-02 22:41:24	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	No	BUY	17	95¢	$17	0x850ec5…
08-02 22:41:18	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xe8e4b3…
08-01 23:41:59	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on August 2?	Yes	BUY	21	30¢	$6	0x050e61…
07-31 00:02:32	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 31?	Yes	BUY	18	29¢	$5	0x703b28…
07-31 00:02:12	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 31?	Yes	BUY	18	27¢	$5	0x313414…
07-28 12:03:13	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	No	BUY	46	98¢	$45	0xfe92ac…
07-28 11:57:05	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	No	BUY	70	97¢	$68	0x8ebe6a…
07-27 23:41:43	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 28?	No	BUY	120	98¢	$117	0xa5c617…
07-27 23:41:39	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 28?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x330db5…
07-27 11:03:04	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on July 27?	No	BUY	146	99¢	$144	0xd4ff50…
07-27 11:03:01	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on July 27?	No	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x17601c…
07-26 02:05:03	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 26?	No	BUY	27	89¢	$24	0xbde01b…
07-25 00:46:28	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 25?	No	BUY	32	89¢	$28	0xd28a36…
07-25 00:46:12	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 25?	No	BUY	42	89¢	$37	0x32b0bf…
07-25 00:45:58	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 25?	No	BUY	8	89¢	$7	0x3d9de4…
07-25 00:45:52	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 25?	No	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0xc4c108…
07-24 23:20:48	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on July 25?	No	BUY	47	90¢	$43	0x834286…
07-24 11:11:40	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	No	BUY	145	100¢	$145	0xa1b49a…
07-24 00:59:37	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 24?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x023367…
07-24 00:59:16	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 24?	No	BUY	40	89¢	$36	0x544dd0…
07-23 03:06:12	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?	No	BUY	210	100¢	$210	0xbf4a0e…
07-21 12:21:13	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	No	BUY	210	99¢	$207	0x745963…
07-21 12:19:33	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	No	SELL	207	100¢	$207	0x453754…
07-20 23:57:46	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	No	BUY	207	100¢	$206	0x4ef87b…
07-18 23:25:28	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	No	BUY	207	97¢	$200	0x4c2bce…
07-14 02:12:10	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	194	40¢	$78	0x5c1abe…
07-14 01:07:02	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	No	BUY	46	48¢	$22	0xd752b4…
07-14 01:06:50	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	No	BUY	91	48¢	$43	0x74a3f7…
07-14 01:06:43	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	No	BUY	91	48¢	$43	0x6080e8…
07-14 01:06:37	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	No	BUY	55	48¢	$26	0xdc0524…
07-13 04:42:37	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 15?	Yes	BUY	16	36¢	$6	0x947c68…
07-12 05:29:17	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 11?	Yes	SELL	106	100¢	$106	0xde6a27…
07-11 09:27:40	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?	No	SELL	120	98¢	$118	0x343a9f…
07-11 05:36:40	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?	No	BUY	120	91¢	$109	0x5321cc…
07-11 00:21:28	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 11?	Yes	BUY	106	47¢	$50	0x95bdc1…
07-10 12:29:14	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	No	BUY	161	100¢	$160	0xacf405…
07-10 01:09:02	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 10?	Yes	BUY	64	35¢	$22	0x8afe1d…
07-10 01:05:44	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 10?	Yes	BUY	48	36¢	$17	0x35ea60…
07-10 00:29:52	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 10?	Yes	BUY	8	35¢	$3	0x273c12…
07-10 00:15:14	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 10?	Yes	BUY	101	35¢	$35	0x747778…
07-09 23:26:53	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 10?	Yes	SELL	357	25¢	$89	0xf49a9d…
07-09 23:24:49	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 10?	Yes	SELL	21	25¢	$5	0x94baaf…
07-09 17:52:55	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 10?	Yes	SELL	169	35¢	$59	0xb15762…
07-09 17:31:02	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 10?	Yes	SELL	14	35¢	$5	0x59b999…
07-09 17:21:55	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 10?	Yes	SELL	3	35¢	$1	0x680784…
07-09 17:07:19	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 10?	Yes	SELL	3	35¢	$1	0x69363c…