Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$479

Unrealized P&L

-$11

Hit rate

50.4%

Resolved

Trades

181

lifetime

Volume

$13.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$72

Open exposure

$123

1 position

First seen

2026-01-06

last 10-11 13:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 19 days

Categories

Other

55% 67% -$506

Politics

33% 67% -$48

Crypto

9% 71% +$7

Tech

2% 100% +$32

Sports

1% 100% +$37

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes		+169	$134	72¢	$123	-$11	10-11 13:21

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	4	$4.1K	2,100	2,100	+0	Yes	-$2	01-11 05:46
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	16	$4.0K	2,300	2,300	+0	No	+$0	01-08 03:25
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	101	$1.5K	27,590	16,106	+11,484	No	-$415	01-20 06:14
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	3	$499	255	255	+0	No	+$0	06-09 07:03
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?	3	$354	200	200	+0	open	—	05-29 03:22
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 8 million	3	$300	200	200	+0	Yes	+$60	01-19 03:22
Infinex FDV above $2B one day after launch?	2	$197	100	100	+0	No	-$1	01-19 04:07
Infinex FDV above $1B one day after launch?	2	$196	100	100	+0	No	+$2	01-20 07:56
Infinex FDV above $800M one day after launch?	2	$193	100	100	+0	No	+$4	01-27 01:54
Infinex FDV above $5B one day after launch?	2	$193	97	97	+0	No	+$0	01-19 03:09
infinex fdv above 600m one day after launch 441 573 316 497	4	$185	100	100	+0	No	+$1	01-20 08:41
spy up or down on june 9 2026	2	$151	218	0	+218	Down	-$151	06-09 07:29
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	3	$134	200	200	+0	Yes	+$22	01-19 04:45
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	1	$134	169	0	+169	open	—	10-11 13:21
will the seattle seahawks win super bowl 2026	2	$118	200	200	+0	Yes	+$37	01-19 03:11
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	1	$110	130	0	+130	Yes	+$20	09-05 14:22
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	2	$98	200	200	+0	No	-$70	01-19 03:29
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	2	$98	100	0	+100	Yes	+$2	07-18 11:02
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	1	$89	99	0	+99	Yes	+$10	08-07 08:40
infinex fdv above 300m one day after launch 311	8	$68	100	100	+0	No	-$4	01-19 20:10
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	1	$60	0	60	-60	No	$0	05-18 16:38
highest temperature in shenzhen on march 30 2026 27c	1	$57	57	0	+57	Yes	+$0	03-30 09:28
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December?	2	$48	25	25	+0	open	—	06-03 00:10
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	1	$10	17	0	+17	No	+$7	06-21 22:35
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 28?	2	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	05-28 07:59
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C or below on May 28?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	05-28 10:51
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 40°C or higher on May 29?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	05-28 17:10
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 41°C or higher on May 28?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	05-28 11:00
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 29?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	05-28 08:52
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on May 29?	1	$5	5	0	+5	Yes	-$5	05-28 04:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-11 13:21:00	Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	169	79¢	$134	0xd04c86…
09-05 14:22:22	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	130	85¢	$110	0xb86f31…
08-07 08:40:13	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	99	90¢	$89	0xf81c03…
07-18 11:02:10	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	85	98¢	$84	0xe70108…
07-18 11:00:40	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	98¢	$14	0x36d3cc…
07-05 17:15:34	Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xbf43ea…
06-21 22:35:34	Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	No	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x12ea02…
06-09 07:29:21	spy up or down on june 9 2026	Up	BUY	213	69¢	$147	0xddb43a…
06-09 07:27:24	spy up or down on june 9 2026	Up	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x7f327f…
06-09 07:03:37	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	SELL	255	98¢	$250	0x6fc7e8…
06-08 04:28:06	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	BUY	48	98¢	$47	0xd9caf3…
06-08 03:47:54	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?	No	BUY	207	98¢	$203	0x17c597…
06-03 00:10:50	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December?	No	SELL	25	96¢	$24	0xdcbcde…
05-29 03:22:47	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?	No	SELL	88	89¢	$78	0xf210d5…
05-29 00:49:01	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?	No	SELL	112	89¢	$100	0x56d2af…
05-28 17:10:36	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 40°C or higher on May 29?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8829d5…
05-28 11:00:43	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 41°C or higher on May 28?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x49c291…
05-28 10:51:11	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C or below on May 28?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x6b0ad8…
05-28 09:11:27	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on May 28?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0x072e05…
05-28 08:52:53	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 29?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x11e3da…
05-28 07:59:58	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 28?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x249ca2…
05-28 05:31:43	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on May 28?	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x6b2d2f…
05-28 05:17:08	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on May 29?	No	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0xa1d6a5…
05-28 04:59:54	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 28?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x3ffb6d…
05-28 04:54:23	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C on May 29?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xd4afba…
05-20 12:09:31	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?	No	BUY	200	88¢	$176	0x6d6e08…
05-20 06:55:32	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December?	No	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0xf40a7a…
05-18 16:38:47	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	60	99¢	$60	0x4a3f0c…
03-30 09:28:32	highest temperature in shenzhen on march 30 2026 27c	Yes	BUY	57	100¢	$57	0xb4199a…
02-08 06:25:55	Based FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	98	4¢	$4	0xbd14a8…
01-27 01:54:19	Infinex FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x5c6913…
01-20 08:41:50	infinex fdv above 600m one day after launch 441 573 316 497	No	SELL	8	93¢	$7	0x2ee072…
01-20 07:56:36	Infinex FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0xd1cc1a…
01-20 07:30:04	infinex fdv above 600m one day after launch 441 573 316 497	No	SELL	90	93¢	$84	0x28f301…
01-20 06:14:00	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	1,890	3¢	$62	0xdec1e0…
01-20 06:13:58	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	160	3¢	$5	0x431d91…
01-20 06:11:30	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	100	3¢	$3	0x6543ec…
01-20 06:10:32	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	30	3¢	$1	0x57d716…
01-20 06:09:20	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	54	3¢	$2	0xa54ab0…
01-20 06:08:40	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	62	3¢	$2	0x5fdaa0…
01-20 06:05:58	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0xda4f7d…
01-20 06:05:50	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	1,486	3¢	$49	0x662344…
01-20 06:04:32	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	30	3¢	$1	0x206f66…
01-20 06:03:16	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	31	3¢	$1	0x4f2ac0…
01-20 05:59:18	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	303	3¢	$10	0x132129…
01-20 05:59:14	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	28	3¢	$1	0xf2414f…
01-20 05:57:44	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	515	3¢	$17	0x2339a6…
01-20 05:55:38	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	28	3¢	$1	0xa09103…
01-20 05:55:14	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	65	3¢	$2	0x1c4c4a…
01-20 05:48:30	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	100	3¢	$3	0xe5125a…
01-20 05:46:30	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	60	3¢	$2	0xd6bd4f…
01-20 05:45:10	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	13	3¢	$0	0x57d599…
01-20 05:44:06	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	152	3¢	$5	0xe9522f…
01-20 05:42:56	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	303	3¢	$10	0xde7161…
01-20 05:40:40	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	100	3¢	$3	0xb5eb84…
01-20 05:39:58	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	26	3¢	$1	0xf6df8a…
01-20 05:36:44	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	30	3¢	$1	0xf7d695…
01-20 05:35:20	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0xc0d9c4…
01-20 05:33:14	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	30	3¢	$1	0xcdbe9f…
01-20 05:30:24	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	26	3¢	$1	0xa7e094…
01-20 05:30:10	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	30	3¢	$1	0xabcfe9…
01-20 05:27:32	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	100	3¢	$3	0x8bb7e5…
01-20 05:21:18	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	30	3¢	$1	0xfb0a4f…
01-20 05:18:14	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	30	3¢	$1	0x6be62f…
01-20 05:09:04	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	31	3¢	$1	0xc77d72…
01-20 05:06:04	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	33	3¢	$1	0x819319…
01-20 04:59:42	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	55	3¢	$2	0xa317b7…
01-20 04:57:36	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	30	3¢	$1	0x08018d…
01-19 20:10:52	infinex fdv above 300m one day after launch 311	Yes	SELL	0	32¢	$0	0x0ce79d…
01-19 19:51:20	infinex fdv above 300m one day after launch 311	Yes	SELL	31	32¢	$10	0x2d6446…
01-19 15:01:36	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	2,400	4¢	$86	0x413c86…
01-19 15:01:08	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	7,200	4¢	$259	0x3bf381…
01-19 14:54:42	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	13	4¢	$0	0x452957…
01-19 14:54:32	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	140	4¢	$5	0x3758ef…
01-19 14:54:14	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	737	3¢	$26	0xc1c21a…
01-19 13:39:54	infinex fdv above 600m one day after launch 441 573 316 497	No	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0x99986a…
01-19 10:05:20	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	114	3¢	$4	0x34aaaf…
01-19 10:03:40	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	1,143	3¢	$40	0x888bf9…
01-19 10:01:14	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	29	3¢	$1	0xd26444…
01-19 09:57:28	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	143	3¢	$5	0xeee839…
01-19 09:56:04	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	163	3¢	$6	0xbb9c84…
01-19 08:57:22	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	28	3¢	$1	0x8587ea…
01-19 08:57:20	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0xfd43d7…
01-19 08:57:14	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	33	4¢	$1	0x93b7e2…
01-19 08:57:06	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	47	4¢	$2	0xf7e858…
01-19 08:57:00	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	9	3¢	$0	0x957b12…
01-19 08:57:00	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	71	3¢	$2	0x4ac620…
01-19 08:56:56	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	70	4¢	$2	0xb33d6f…
01-19 08:56:54	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xfc61a3…
01-19 08:56:52	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	135	3¢	$5	0x978aff…
01-19 08:56:44	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	193	3¢	$7	0x6720ea…
01-19 08:56:44	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	3	4¢	$0	0x35b77c…
01-19 08:56:40	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0xda909a…
01-19 08:56:38	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	285	3¢	$10	0xbce0f7…
01-19 08:56:36	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	13	4¢	$0	0x01bd69…
01-19 08:56:28	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	436	3¢	$15	0xc8b2a8…
01-19 08:56:28	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	52	4¢	$2	0xba8e43…
01-19 08:56:22	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	618	3¢	$22	0x0c51d0…
01-19 08:56:20	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	257	4¢	$9	0xd6fd13…
01-19 08:56:14	fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	989	4¢	$35	0xceb275…