Hospitable-Orchid 0x2b0178…af9bd7
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Realized P&L (24h)
-$23
Unrealized P&L
+$9
Hit rate
57.3%
Resolved (24h)
21
Trades (24h)
27
4,723 lifetime
Volume (24h)
$84
$6.91K lifetime
Avg / trade
$1
Open exposure
$450
19 positions
First seen
2026-05-08
last 11-01 07:08
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 60 days
Categories
Crypto
64% 85% -$103
Politics
24% 65% +$206
Other
11% 76% -$14
Tech
1% 50% -$17
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
36 active days in 12wk • peak 73 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +100 $94 94¢ $94 +$0 10-30 10:43
Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? No +66 $64 98¢ $65 +$0 10-30 10:42
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026? No +60 $58 98¢ $58 $0 10-30 11:51
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +54 $52 98¢ $53 +$0 10-30 10:48
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +67 $44 70¢ $47 +$4 10-28 16:19
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? No +75 $34 42¢ $31 -$3 10-31 05:06
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? Yes +56 $22 53¢ $30 +$8 10-28 16:40
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? Yes +34 $18 52¢ $18 -$1 10-31 12:49
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No +19 $15 80¢ $15 +$0 10-15 21:16
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes +67 $13 18¢ $12 -$1 10-25 23:23
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026? Yes +11 $4 50¢ $5 +$1 10-31 06:53
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? Yes +27 $4 15¢ $4 $0 10-30 13:03
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +6 $3 62¢ $4 +$1 10-27 20:12
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? No +22 $5 16¢ $4 -$1 10-23 14:22
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? Yes +9 $3 36¢ $3 +$1 10-20 17:19
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes +4 $3 74¢ $3 $0 10-28 09:20
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? Yes +40 $2 3¢ $1 -$1 10-26 13:52
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? No +7 $1 16¢ $1 +$0 10-30 15:29
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes +12 $1 8¢ $1 $0 10-24 16:45