Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$192.0K

Unrealized P&L

-$197.8K

Hit rate

90.0%

Resolved

Trades

3,780

lifetime

Volume

$900.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$238

Open exposure

$261.9K

5 positions

First seen

2026-07-24

last 10-27 20:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

100% 44% +$192,262

Politics

0% 50% -$305

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 696 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (11) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	+2,942,653	$218,299	5¢	$147.1K	-$71,167	10-27 18:57
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+2,012,137	$223,817	4¢	$90.5K	-$133,271	10-27 18:44
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+4,732,375	$14,197	0¢	$21.3K	+$7,099	10-27 20:48
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?	No	+2,951	$2,874	98¢	$2.9K	+$12	10-22 20:40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Yes	+0	$487	0¢	$0	-$487	09-27 18:35

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	698	$377.0K	664,100	329,933	+334,167	Yes	+$229,369	09-14 18:42
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	589	$230.8K	2,062,559	50,422	+2,012,137	open	—	10-27 18:44
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	436	$218.3K	2,942,873	220	+2,942,653	open	—	10-27 18:57
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	34	$23.8K	94,164	0	+94,164	Yes	-$23,759	07-29 17:20
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	1,640	$14.2K	4,732,375	0	+4,732,375	open	—	10-27 20:48
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	14	$12.6K	51,594	0	+51,594	No	-$12,572	07-29 17:16
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	11	$7.8K	13,330	0	+13,330	No	+$5,496	09-14 18:41
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	261	$5.8K	742,713	20,079	+722,634	No	-$5,602	09-16 16:21
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	20	$2.9K	20,455	20,455	+0	open	—	09-27 18:35
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?	1	$2.9K	2,951	0	+2,951	open	—	10-22 20:40
will trump meet with netanyahu by august 31 2026	6	$1.8K	927	927	+0	Yes	+$31	07-27 12:10
Will fewer than 220 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?	12	$862	488	475	+13	Yes	+$82	07-28 12:39
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	40	$749	155,770	0	+155,770	No	-$749	07-29 17:33
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	5	$736	1,238	1,237	+1	Yes	+$81	08-26 21:02
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?	5	$336	1,100	0	+1,100	No	-$336	09-16 20:39
bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	2	$104	2,500	2,500	+0	No	-$84	07-28 11:32
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?	6	$53	29	29	+0	open	—	10-22 20:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 20:48:50	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x125857…
10-27 20:48:23	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xc627ef…
10-27 20:47:47	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x61e005…
10-27 20:40:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	92	0¢	$0	0xe61511…
10-27 20:37:35	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xa571c7…
10-27 20:37:12	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xb60451…
10-27 20:34:27	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x546e11…
10-27 20:34:03	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xa02cbc…
10-27 20:33:38	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x23392a…
10-27 20:29:54	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x8673cb…
10-27 20:29:44	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xb1f66d…
10-27 20:29:32	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x231034…
10-27 20:28:57	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	64	0¢	$0	0x103f0c…
10-27 20:24:30	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xc08a5d…
10-27 20:24:02	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x1d74b3…
10-27 20:23:29	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x8b2bff…
10-27 20:22:39	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	28	0¢	$0	0x7641da…
10-27 20:18:26	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0x693eb3…
10-27 20:18:06	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x53e0a7…
10-27 20:16:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x228425…
10-27 20:16:29	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	120	0¢	$0	0x6edd65…
10-27 20:16:26	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xc9f20f…
10-27 20:16:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	107	0¢	$0	0x1aad5b…
10-27 20:16:11	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x5d24c3…
10-27 20:16:02	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	121	0¢	$0	0xad8031…
10-27 20:14:50	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	86	0¢	$0	0xf1eb8e…
10-27 20:14:32	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	119	0¢	$0	0xdeabdd…
10-27 20:13:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	113	0¢	$0	0x0ba38e…
10-27 20:11:20	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	126	0¢	$0	0x436ca8…
10-27 20:10:45	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	119	0¢	$0	0x73e792…
10-27 20:10:14	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	123	0¢	$0	0x3a4bde…
10-27 20:09:35	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	118	0¢	$0	0x99b65e…
10-27 20:08:30	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xcde6af…
10-27 20:08:08	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x0bf469…
10-27 20:07:54	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x2074d1…
10-27 20:04:23	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x6ee000…
10-27 20:03:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x5ab0c9…
10-27 20:03:41	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x943e5b…
10-27 20:03:33	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xa7ec98…
10-27 20:03:29	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xc2d6b5…
10-27 20:03:20	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x7661f5…
10-27 19:58:32	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x5391d9…
10-27 19:55:36	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x594178…
10-27 19:55:06	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x491394…
10-27 19:54:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xf2717b…
10-27 19:54:20	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$2	0x0d9935…
10-27 19:49:53	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x15f29a…
10-27 19:49:41	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x257f42…
10-27 19:49:29	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x371837…
10-27 19:49:23	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	146	0¢	$0	0x2fd496…
10-27 19:43:48	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	130	0¢	$0	0xd10815…
10-27 19:39:38	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xcea752…
10-27 19:39:18	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x6147d8…
10-27 19:39:08	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x737359…
10-27 19:29:45	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,222	0¢	$7	0x3b79c0…
10-27 19:27:53	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xea6281…
10-27 19:27:24	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x144d4c…
10-27 19:27:08	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x5e5d65…
10-27 19:27:02	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,515	0¢	$8	0x45d308…
10-27 19:17:26	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xe941e7…
10-27 19:16:59	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x521e1e…
10-27 19:16:47	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x4c3144…
10-27 19:09:08	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x85477d…
10-27 19:08:56	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x67c5d8…
10-27 19:08:42	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xf19ffc…
10-27 19:08:15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xae3f42…
10-27 19:07:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x892e69…
10-27 19:07:26	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x833593…
10-27 19:05:24	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	70,000	0¢	$210	0xc5631d…
10-27 19:01:41	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,173	0¢	$4	0x296564…
10-27 19:01:41	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,288	0¢	$4	0x138fea…
10-27 19:01:39	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,188	0¢	$4	0xd9a96b…
10-27 19:01:39	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	300	0¢	$1	0xb0f2f5…
10-27 19:01:39	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,288	0¢	$4	0x180be1…
10-27 18:57:11	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	635	6¢	$37	0xea9906…
10-27 18:56:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2,000	6¢	$116	0xae3236…
10-27 18:56:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0x928ba8…
10-27 18:56:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x94f9e0…
10-27 18:56:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	60	6¢	$3	0x235a1d…
10-27 18:56:02	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	17	0¢	$0	0x9ccd42…
10-27 18:55:47	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5,000	6¢	$290	0xcd86e7…
10-27 18:55:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	13,745	6¢	$825	0x78dac1…
10-27 18:54:29	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	39,055	0¢	$117	0xda6191…
10-27 18:53:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,040	6¢	$62	0xe18cff…
10-27 18:50:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2,500	6¢	$158	0xeca3b4…
10-27 18:47:53	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	441,191	0¢	$1,324	0xdda33d…
10-27 18:46:30	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	441	0¢	$1	0x724f55…
10-27 18:44:30	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	38,000	0¢	$114	0xb442c2…
10-27 18:44:23	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,889	6¢	$353	0x6cd80f…
10-27 18:36:12	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	101	0¢	$0	0x5aea15…
10-27 18:36:02	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	300	0¢	$1	0xa69634…
10-27 18:36:02	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x907214…
10-27 18:35:45	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	47,441	6¢	$2,846	0xdd7e92…
10-27 18:35:41	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	25	0¢	$0	0xcc7dfc…
10-27 17:59:47	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x6862ee…
10-27 17:59:20	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x56439b…
10-27 17:58:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x70ce90…
10-27 17:53:48	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xdd1721…
10-27 17:53:24	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x8550e8…
10-27 17:52:59	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x797f40…