Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$288

Unrealized P&L

+$7

Hit rate

65.5%

Resolved

308

Trades

870

lifetime

Volume

$6.07K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$186

8 positions

First seen

2026-10-13

last 10-27 08:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 12 days

Categories

Other

58% 41% +$277

Politics

22% 62% -$70

Crypto

10% 42% +$24

Sports

5% 53% +$44

Tech

3% 77% +$8

Pop-Culture

3% 80% +$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 156 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat?	No		+92	$54	72¢	$66	+$12	10-27 09:11
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No		+53	$40	84¢	$45	+$5	10-21 23:28
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No		+47	$24	46¢	$22	-$3	10-22 13:32
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No		+39	$19	55¢	$21	+$2	10-22 13:32
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-01 House seat?	No	—	+33	$20	55¢	$18	-$2	10-20 22:10
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No		+53	$13	16¢	$9	-$4	10-21 23:28
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	No		+5	$4	99¢	$5	+$1	10-20 04:12
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	No		+10	$5	4¢	$0	-$5	10-20 04:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	42	$600	794	87	+707	Yes	-$460	10-25 23:24
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	32	$266	655	86	+569	No	+$392	10-25 23:24
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on October 22?	6	$135	126	126	+0	Yes	+$85	10-25 03:08
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat?	7	$105	126	34	+92	open	—	10-27 09:11
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on October 22?	2	$87	87	87	+0	No	+$70	10-22 14:08
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 22?	2	$81	88	88	+0	Yes	+$63	10-22 15:57
Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 October 19-25?	4	$72	51	51	+0	Yes	+$30	10-26 01:46
nba atl dal 2026 10 16 spread home 0pt5	3	$72	82	41	+41	Hawks	+$40	10-17 01:21
Will Lockheed Martin (LMT) Q3 total backlog be above $210B?	6	$72	66	21	+45	Yes	+$9	10-22 10:20
Paris curfew by October 21?	6	$70	119	0	+119	Yes	+$49	10-19 17:11
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on October 25?	3	$69	36	36	+0	No	+$3	10-26 01:11
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 on October 25?	4	$61	33	33	+0	No	+$5	10-26 03:31
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C or higher on October 24?	3	$60	75	0	+75	Yes	+$15	10-24 20:08
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 22?	3	$58	94	0	+94	No	-$58	10-22 16:08
Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 on October 25?	5	$58	87	36	+51	Yes	-$24	10-25 23:32
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on October 20?	3	$58	72	22	+50	Yes	+$29	10-20 07:53
Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 3°C on October 25?	3	$56	38	38	+0	Yes	+$20	10-25 23:12
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 24?	2	$55	35	35	+0	Yes	+$15	10-25 03:08
Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	6	$52	127	80	+48	open	—	10-24 03:06
Paris curfew by October 19?	7	$51	126	0	+126	Yes	-$51	10-19 17:11
Will there be exactly 3 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 12?	4	$50	65	0	+65	Yes	+$15	10-19 02:14
Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in October 2026?	6	$45	71	2	+69	open	—	10-26 13:17
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)	3	$45	68	34	+33	Tampa Bay Rays	-$4	10-18 07:52
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of October 12 above $345?	6	$43	56	0	+56	No	-$43	10-16 08:04
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%?	2	$42	29	29	+0	Yes	+$2	10-20 20:05
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	2	$41	32	32	+0	open	—	10-21 19:17
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	3	$40	53	0	+53	open	—	10-21 23:28
GitHub.com critical incident by November 15, 2026?	2	$40	43	0	+43	Yes	+$3	10-21 04:37
Will another album be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of October 31?	2	$40	40	0	+40	No	+$0	10-20 03:27
Will "Drake - HABIBTI (FOMO)" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of October 31?	2	$40	40	0	+40	No	+$0	10-20 03:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 09:19:15	Mastercard (MA) Q3 cross-border volume growth (local currency basis) 10.5% to 11.5%?	Yes	SELL	10	29¢	$3	0xb5f3f1…
10-27 09:17:57	Mastercard (MA) Q3 cross-border volume growth (local currency basis) 11.5% to 12.5%?	Yes	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0x922057…
10-27 09:17:57	Mastercard (MA) Q3 cross-border volume growth (local currency basis) 10.5% to 11.5%?	Yes	BUY	10	27¢	$3	0x79cd82…
10-27 09:17:57	Mastercard (MA) Q3 cross-border volume growth (local currency basis) <10.5%?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x25b040…
10-27 09:17:57	Mastercard (MA) Q3 cross-border volume growth (local currency basis) 13.5%+?	Yes	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x00428d…
10-27 09:11:42	Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat?	No	SELL	6	71¢	$4	0xb659b6…
10-27 09:09:47	Will the biggest earthquake on October 27, 2026 be 5.7 to 5.8?	Yes	SELL	20	37¢	$7	0x9c46c9…
10-27 09:01:45	Will the biggest earthquake on October 27, 2026 be 5.7 to 5.8?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0xda959a…
10-27 09:01:45	Will the biggest earthquake on October 27, 2026 be 5.3 to 5.4?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0xaae84f…
10-27 09:01:45	Will the biggest earthquake on October 27, 2026 be under 5.3?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x649af2…
10-27 09:01:45	Will the biggest earthquake on October 27, 2026 be 6.1 or more?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x42b51d…
10-27 09:01:45	Will the biggest earthquake on October 27, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x31387f…
10-27 08:13:50	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	78¢	$5	0xdb823f…
10-27 07:49:48	nba por lal 2026 10 27 spread away 18pt5	Trail Blazers	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x4ab921…
10-27 07:34:35	mlb mil tb 2026 10 27 spread away 4pt5	Tampa Bay Rays	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0xd6dbed…
10-27 07:34:35	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Tampa Bay Rays	Milwaukee Brewers	BUY	6	57¢	$3	0x786ef4…
10-27 03:15:32	Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xd385a9…
10-27 03:15:32	Gemini Carbon released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	38¢	$0	0x965883…
10-27 03:13:45	Gemini Carbon released by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x406a54…
10-27 03:13:45	Gemini Carbon released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	39¢	$0	0x172881…
10-27 02:04:05	Spread: Heat (-3.5)	Mavericks	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xb83ed8…
10-27 01:08:08	Spread: Hornets (-12.5)	Hornets	SELL	5	47¢	$2	0x67fe0c…
10-26 23:21:12	Spread: Hornets (-6.5)	Hornets	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0x5e6484…
10-26 22:08:14	Visa (V) Q4 cross border volume total growth (constant dollars) 12.5% to 13.5%?	Yes	SELL	9	24¢	$2	0xac79a4…
10-26 18:29:18	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0xbd0465…
10-26 18:07:21	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x0721ea…
10-26 18:06:59	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x56327b…
10-26 17:53:12	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0xcd7e92…
10-26 17:53:11	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	7	13¢	$1	0x8d7e2c…
10-26 17:52:42	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	22	5¢	$1	0xba4bc7…
10-26 17:52:05	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	85¢	$9	0x9bf5c3…
10-26 17:52:05	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	84¢	$7	0x7dd1dc…
10-26 17:52:05	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 26, 2026?	No	BUY	11	14¢	$2	0x3974bc…
10-26 17:52:05	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 26, 2026?	No	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0x32e304…
10-26 15:08:15	Visa (V) Q4 cross border volume total growth (constant dollars) 13.5% to 14.5%?	Yes	SELL	5	29¢	$1	0x158680…
10-26 15:06:14	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the October meeting?	Yes	SELL	15	45¢	$7	0x82a1bc…
10-26 14:48:21	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the October meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0xabc69c…
10-26 13:17:38	Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in October 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0xdbe5ae…
10-26 12:52:29	Will the Central Bank of Colombia decrease the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the October meeting?	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0xc7f006…
10-26 12:52:29	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 25 bps at the October meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0xaf4fd0…
10-26 12:52:29	Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the October meeting?	Yes	BUY	9	4¢	$0	0x21aaf6…
10-26 12:22:23	Will the peak wind gust in Wellington be 86 to 95 km/h in October?	Yes	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0xe39602…
10-26 12:22:23	Will the peak wind gust in Wellington be 96 km/h or above in October?	Yes	BUY	27	73¢	$20	0x276a4a…
10-26 12:04:09	Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0xd9cfec…
10-26 10:19:54	Will the biggest earthquake on October 26, 2026 be under 5.3?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0xe728b1…
10-26 10:19:54	Will the biggest earthquake on October 26, 2026 be 5.3 to 5.4?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0xc88c9a…
10-26 10:19:54	Will the biggest earthquake on October 26, 2026 be 6.1 or more?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x8ae3d9…
10-26 10:19:54	Will the biggest earthquake on October 26, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x4e4d62…
10-26 10:19:54	Will the biggest earthquake on October 26, 2026 be 5.5 to 5.6?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x4696e3…
10-26 10:19:54	Will the biggest earthquake on October 26, 2026 be 5.7 to 5.8?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x2a017e…
10-26 10:05:05	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x7b7848…
10-26 08:27:12	Will the biggest earthquake on October 26, 2026 be 5.9 to 6.0?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0xcfd51a…
10-26 08:27:12	Will the biggest earthquake on October 26, 2026 be 6.1 or more?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x51fe0a…
10-26 08:27:11	Will the biggest earthquake on October 26, 2026 be 5.5 to 5.6?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0xd80a43…
10-26 08:27:11	Will the biggest earthquake on October 26, 2026 be under 5.3?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x673e17…
10-26 08:27:11	Will the biggest earthquake on October 26, 2026 be 5.7 to 5.8?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x18ba85…
10-26 08:27:11	Will the biggest earthquake on October 26, 2026 be 5.3 to 5.4?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x0a66fe…
10-26 08:15:12	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $188 in October?	Yes	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0xf3accf…
10-26 08:09:32	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $188 in October?	Yes	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xdf65b8…
10-26 03:46:59	Will Alison Jarman win the next Devonport mayoral election?	No	SELL	27	22¢	$6	0xfabfbc…
10-26 03:31:20	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 on October 25?	No	SELL	28	99¢	$28	0xc6b11a…
10-26 02:43:50	Will Ethereum reach $2,400 on October 25?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x173303…
10-26 01:46:47	Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 October 19-25?	Yes	SELL	51	99¢	$51	0x4e4195…
10-26 01:11:54	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on October 25?	No	SELL	36	99¢	$36	0x65beda…
10-25 23:32:51	Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 October 19-25?	Yes	BUY	8	41¢	$3	0xfc7f82…
10-25 23:32:51	Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 October 19-25?	Yes	BUY	39	42¢	$16	0x4b2b44…
10-25 23:32:51	Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 on October 25?	No	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x17757e…
10-25 23:32:51	Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 on October 25?	No	BUY	39	50¢	$19	0x0afbdf…
10-25 23:27:56	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 October 19-25?	Yes	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x4be9b1…
10-25 23:27:44	Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 October 19-25?	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x34acfa…
10-25 23:27:44	Will Ethereum dip to $2,300 on October 25?	No	BUY	4	58¢	$3	0x1ca9c9…
10-25 23:27:39	Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on October 25?	No	BUY	22	8¢	$2	0x59029b…
10-25 23:24:48	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	22	90¢	$20	0x965b77…
10-25 23:24:45	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x82d4c9…
10-25 23:24:44	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0x074fcf…
10-25 23:16:53	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x906902…
10-25 23:16:53	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	22	8¢	$2	0x5408d6…
10-25 23:12:27	Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 3°C on October 25?	Yes	SELL	38	100¢	$38	0xfcc5a2…
10-25 22:03:03	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on October 25?	No	BUY	15	90¢	$13	0xacbe65…
10-25 22:03:03	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 October 19-25?	Yes	BUY	15	8¢	$1	0x5797ba…
10-25 22:02:11	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0x124af0…
10-25 22:02:11	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0x11b4d7…
10-25 22:02:06	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0xf9a579…
10-25 22:02:06	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x4b46d7…
10-25 22:01:35	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on October 25?	No	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x9ec162…
10-25 22:01:33	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 October 19-25?	Yes	BUY	23	6¢	$1	0x2ebdba…
10-25 21:59:51	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	37	42¢	$15	0x547405…
10-25 21:59:47	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	37	43¢	$16	0xc65313…
10-25 21:59:45	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	37	54¢	$20	0x39b377…
10-25 21:53:14	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	25	64¢	$16	0xf95814…
10-25 21:53:14	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	25	35¢	$9	0xeaa6ed…
10-25 21:53:14	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0xbc1a0e…
10-25 21:53:14	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	31	35¢	$11	0xb414c4…
10-25 21:46:59	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	31	34¢	$10	0x144b21…
10-25 21:44:17	Mavericks vs. Heat	Heat	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x7f08bd…
10-25 21:44:17	nba dal mia 2026 10 26 spread home 3pt5	Mavericks	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x6c1ce2…
10-25 21:44:17	nba dal mia 2026 10 26 spread home 2pt5	Heat	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x5e7f83…
10-25 21:22:36	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	1	65¢	$1	0x89a9bd…
10-25 21:10:45	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	29	68¢	$20	0x93dcd8…
10-25 21:10:45	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	29	31¢	$9	0x4ca9d6…