Distinct-Trip — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$7

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

99.9%

Resolved

106

Trades

134

lifetime

Volume

$1.33K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

$60

1 position

First seen

2026-01-15

last 11-07 21:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 36 days

Categories

Other

46% 99% +$3

Politics

30% 90% +$3

Crypto

18% 100% +$0

Tech

6% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes		+60	$59	99¢	$60	+$1	11-07 21:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	2	$112	57	57	+0	No	+$1	09-07 12:47
Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	3	$91	51	51	+0	open	—	10-29 17:50
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?	2	$75	38	38	+0	No	+$0	09-30 00:38
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	1	$60	60	0	+60	Yes	+$0	11-04 04:08
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	1	$60	60	0	+60	Yes	+$0	10-05 00:54
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	1	$59	60	0	+60	open	—	11-07 21:41
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	2	$56	59	0	+59	No	+$2	09-30 10:17
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	2	$50	50	0	+50	Yes	+$0	09-16 00:03
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	09-14 18:56
us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	1	$47	47	0	+47	No	+$0	08-08 01:40
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	1	$47	47	0	+47	No	+$0	08-21 23:31
Aligned FDV above $100M one day after launch?	2	$47	47	0	+47	Yes	+$0	08-21 02:22
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	1	$46	46	0	+46	No	+$0	08-12 18:15
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	1	$46	46	0	+46	Yes	+$0	07-31 11:48
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	1	$45	46	0	+46	No	+$0	08-11 18:36
untitled market 1 20260803235754057	1	$44	46	0	+46	No	+$2	08-13 21:51
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	2	$31	16	16	+0	No	+$0	09-01 05:59
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	2	$30	15	15	+0	No	+$0	10-29 13:19
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in August?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	08-26 17:39
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 in October?	2	$16	8	8	+0	No	+$0	10-28 06:18
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in September?	2	$14	7	7	+0	No	+$0	09-29 02:21
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in September?	2	$14	7	7	+0	No	+$0	09-29 13:04
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	1	$13	13	0	+13	Yes	+$0	05-30 14:08
will ethereum dip to 1000 in february 2026	1	$12	13	0	+13	No	+$0	02-28 07:16
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	2	$12	6	6	+0	No	+$0	09-29 13:06
will bitcoin dip to 40k in august 2026	4	$12	6	6	+0	No	+$0	08-19 16:34
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in August?	1	$12	12	0	+12	No	+$0	08-27 10:50
will anthropic have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	1	$11	11	0	+11	Yes	+$0	03-31 05:47
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June?	1	$10	10	0	+10	No	+$0	06-28 10:27
will ethereum reach 2800 in february 2026	1	$9	9	0	+9	No	+$0	02-26 08:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-07 21:41:31	Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	60	97¢	$59	0x828bb1…
11-04 04:08:55	Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0x091cc6…
10-29 17:50:25	Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	SELL	51	90¢	$46	0x304937…
10-29 13:19:26	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x281e73…
10-29 01:16:56	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xfb9ee4…
10-28 06:18:22	Will Ethereum reach $4,500 in October?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x2aa6fa…
10-23 23:48:00	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0x203acc…
10-23 23:48:00	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	96	0¢	$0	0x165df7…
10-23 23:47:59	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	125	0¢	$0	0x2bbe4b…
10-23 23:38:48	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x6ad145…
10-23 23:00:26	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0xfdb9c7…
10-23 23:00:26	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xe4f37b…
10-15 02:32:59	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	8	16¢	$1	0x864a21…
10-13 05:27:06	Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	46	89¢	$41	0x232dfc…
10-13 05:27:05	Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch?	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x3bdd71…
10-08 16:29:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	8	15¢	$1	0x1903b1…
10-08 05:03:44	Will Ethereum reach $4,500 in October?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x68bdd9…
10-05 00:54:28	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	60	100¢	$60	0x7e0686…
09-30 18:12:36	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x303c77…
09-30 10:17:00	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	38	96¢	$37	0xc17861…
09-30 00:38:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?	No	SELL	38	100¢	$37	0xd0fa1d…
09-29 19:23:56	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$20	0xb97179…
09-29 13:06:21	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x81fbd9…
09-29 13:04:23	Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in September?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xe469d2…
09-29 02:21:17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in September?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x8a4a40…
09-28 22:18:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?	No	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0x2eaf12…
09-22 19:11:58	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xfd96c0…
09-22 12:44:51	Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in September?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xebb505…
09-16 00:03:39	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x801055…
09-16 00:02:51	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x0abad5…
09-14 18:56:15	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x305b01…
09-14 12:58:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in September?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xae8245…
09-07 12:47:45	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	SELL	57	100¢	$56	0x63aca7…
09-03 13:29:06	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	57	98¢	$56	0x30fabc…
09-01 05:59:25	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$15	0xc68c21…
08-30 23:41:37	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	16	98¢	$15	0x32e19a…
08-27 10:50:58	Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in August?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xfa2674…
08-26 17:39:03	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in August?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xfbe3d5…
08-21 23:31:25	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	47	100¢	$47	0xd9eaab…
08-21 02:22:27	Aligned FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x684213…
08-21 00:26:58	Aligned FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x35a84b…
08-20 11:06:21	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0x1b4aba…
08-20 08:32:19	will xauusd dip to 3500 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x4a755c…
08-19 16:34:01	will bitcoin dip to 40k in august 2026	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xc469ee…
08-16 19:50:45	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x2140fd…
08-16 14:45:51	will xagusd dip to 48 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x516844…
08-13 21:51:24	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	BUY	46	97¢	$44	0x81a155…
08-13 19:41:12	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa4de63…
08-12 18:15:46	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	No	BUY	46	99¢	$46	0x7f57a7…
08-11 18:36:39	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	BUY	46	100¢	$45	0xc1d63f…
08-10 19:08:27	will xagusd dip to 46 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0xfbc6a8…
08-08 01:40:04	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	No	BUY	47	100¢	$47	0x3bd6c5…
08-08 00:44:54	will bitcoin dip to 40k in august 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x799f03…
08-07 16:14:37	will bitcoin dip to 40k in august 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x2579d1…
08-06 17:02:44	will bitcoin reach 85k in august 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0xdf4960…
08-06 16:47:36	will bitcoin dip to 40k in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x4c56b6…
07-31 11:48:23	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	100¢	$46	0xa3e6c8…
07-30 16:52:33	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x428b0e…
07-27 20:09:51	Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf9e053…
07-26 17:50:40	will bitcoin dip to 42pt5k in july 2026 821	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8d2c4a…
07-24 20:10:40	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528 175	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xe4c084…
07-02 06:12:35	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x363317…
06-30 02:29:13	will xauusd reach 5000 in june 2026	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x23f885…
06-28 20:03:19	Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x8bc86b…
06-28 10:27:49	Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xed9498…
06-26 20:52:56	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc6380c…
06-26 14:14:31	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xa120a8…
06-06 17:29:30	Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc67521…
05-30 14:08:51	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xac1a1b…
05-12 02:29:59	Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xc6334b…
05-10 16:16:27	Will Solana reach $150 in May?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x969d43…
05-08 20:03:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x58f121…
05-08 00:19:27	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xc5f36e…
05-07 23:24:40	Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xe59bf3…
05-06 02:31:06	Will Solana reach $170 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xc4ccfb…
05-05 22:51:44	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x3f8ddb…
05-05 14:29:18	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x02ac1c…
05-05 11:13:26	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2a3fae…
05-05 09:32:26	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x7a44ca…
05-05 09:23:32	Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xb02df8…
04-25 18:52:22	Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the April meeting?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x13b584…
04-23 14:45:04	Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $0.00 end of April?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x2086da…
04-20 14:00:02	Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the April meeting?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0x5bb9c1…
04-19 09:49:30	Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $150 end of April?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xbbd005…
04-19 01:48:52	Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $150 end of April?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x51a920…
04-18 08:05:28	Will Microsoft have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x1d160d…
04-17 16:26:52	Will BNB reach $1,000 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xf18803…
04-16 15:49:06	Will Solana reach $160 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x8c0c5e…
04-15 13:38:20	Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $150 end of April?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x2bb622…
04-15 03:28:34	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x2ff67d…
04-14 07:27:11	Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 end of April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x92d77a…
04-13 08:34:13	Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa1bd23…
03-31 05:47:43	will anthropic have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xa5b586…
03-30 10:25:18	tsla above 460 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd0911d…
03-27 21:49:57	will alphabet be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	2	99¢	$1	0x86fc79…
03-27 10:21:03	nvda above 120 on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x0e1435…
03-26 02:35:01	aapl above 280 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x082f4c…
03-24 08:52:13	will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 336	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0xe60d52…
03-23 15:44:49	will ethena reach 0pt24 in march	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x929f6e…
03-22 07:55:27	googl above 250 on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x414e7a…