Poor-Lemon-Lesson — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.95K

Unrealized P&L

-$477

Hit rate

22.0%

Resolved

295

Trades

1,805

lifetime

Volume

$366.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$203

Open exposure

$1.94K

6 positions

First seen

2026-05-10

last 11-06 22:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 102 days

Categories

Other

49% 13% -$3,046

Politics

36% 16% -$404

Sports

10% 45% +$748

Tech

4% 24% -$244

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Crypto

0% 0% -$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

69 active days in 12wk • peak 66 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (14) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	+1,983	$1,745	83¢	$1.6K	-$109	11-06 05:30
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2027?	Yes	+671	$349	42¢	$278	-$70	11-05 12:44
Democratic 2028 presidential odds hit 70% by December 31?	Yes	+119	$63	16¢	$18	-$45	11-06 17:41
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	-13	-$10	70¢	$-9	+$1	10-22 17:44
another fed rate hike in 2026	Yes	+0	$23	76¢	$0	-$23	10-15 12:31
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	+0	$231	62¢	$0	-$231	09-01 14:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	64	$18.6K	15,822	15,822	+0	open	—	09-04 15:15
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	36	$18.3K	20,372	20,372	+0	Yes	-$177	08-28 18:54
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	9	$14.1K	11,693	11,693	+0	Yes	-$620	08-10 22:47
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	31	$14.0K	12,762	12,762	+0	open	—	09-01 14:52
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	3	$12.4K	7,123	7,123	+0	open	—	08-14 05:53
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	7	$10.5K	11,503	11,503	+0	open	—	11-05 20:46
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	8	$10.1K	10,152	10,152	+0	open	—	09-26 15:16
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	4	$9.8K	5,959	5,959	+0	Yes	-$90	07-13 18:17
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	11	$9.6K	8,733	8,733	+0	open	—	07-17 08:26
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	8	$8.9K	9,812	9,812	+0	No	-$205	09-02 07:40
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	7	$8.6K	8,874	6,891	+1,983	open	—	11-06 05:30
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	9	$7.7K	5,658	5,658	+0	No	+$48	09-09 07:27
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	20	$6.6K	13,307	13,307	+0	open	—	08-24 08:45
will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	4	$6.4K	3,987	3,987	+0	No	-$205	07-09 00:08
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	9	$6.1K	5,213	5,213	+0	No	+$665	07-15 20:55
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	28	$5.9K	5,401	4,620	+781	Yes	-$171	10-29 14:41
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	6	$5.8K	4,600	4,600	+0	open	—	10-27 09:33
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	49	$5.6K	6,014	6,014	+0	Yes	-$14	07-15 01:23
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	6	$5.5K	6,248	6,248	+0	open	—	11-05 07:32
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	3	$5.4K	3,914	3,914	+0	open	—	09-29 20:57
Spread: Bills (-7.5)	2	$5.2K	5,154	5,154	+0	Bills	+$52	09-27 09:48
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?	3	$5.1K	3,102	3,102	+0	open	—	10-03 19:13
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	7	$5.0K	5,184	5,184	+0	open	—	10-26 07:25
Spread: Chiefs (-10.5)	2	$4.7K	5,154	5,154	+0	Chiefs	+$0	09-27 09:49
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	26	$4.3K	6,901	2,901	+4,000	Yes	-$55	10-29 08:14
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	11	$3.9K	5,313	5,313	+0	open	—	09-09 20:15
another fed rate hike in 2026	12	$3.8K	2,294	2,294	+0	open	—	10-15 12:31
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	20	$3.7K	3,795	3,795	+0	No	-$110	07-20 12:25
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	13	$3.2K	2,099	2,099	+0	open	—	10-06 08:55
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	2	$3.1K	3,381	3,381	+0	Yes	+$34	09-15 07:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-06 22:02:18	Will Amine Gouiri (Marseille) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season?	Yes	SELL	80	8¢	$6	0xba99bd…
11-06 22:02:09	Will John Ratcliffe leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	6	87¢	$5	0x10e7ee…
11-06 19:14:57	Will John Ratcliffe leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x215dac…
11-06 17:41:57	Democratic 2028 presidential odds hit 70% by December 31?	Yes	BUY	119	53¢	$63	0xcbfc88…
11-06 17:12:55	Will Amine Gouiri (Marseille) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x4e21e3…
11-06 17:12:55	Will Amine Gouiri (Marseille) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x397436…
11-06 17:12:55	Will Amine Gouiri (Marseille) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x2b6641…
11-06 17:12:55	Will Amine Gouiri (Marseille) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x19fbf7…
11-06 16:13:16	Will Ivar Stenberg win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy?	Yes	SELL	25	13¢	$3	0x578629…
11-06 16:13:09	Will the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	No	SELL	171	78¢	$134	0xe202e6…
11-06 16:13:01	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 7 to November 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	25¢	$6	0x7ed089…
11-06 16:09:48	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 7 to November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	28¢	$7	0xca3de0…
11-06 15:25:09	Will the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	No	BUY	75	80¢	$60	0xd3c0d0…
11-06 15:25:09	Will the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	No	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0xce8e05…
11-06 15:25:09	Will the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	No	BUY	46	80¢	$37	0x298a06…
11-06 14:02:55	Will Ivar Stenberg win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy?	Yes	BUY	25	15¢	$4	0x4ab3ac…
11-06 13:52:15	Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	78¢	$23	0xb06964…
11-06 13:51:13	Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	79¢	$23	0xe695b8…
11-06 11:08:46	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	936	35¢	$328	0xaf04e9…
11-06 10:22:39	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	936	36¢	$337	0xc1b7c3…
11-06 05:30:25	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	1,816	83¢	$1,506	0x1f6436…
11-06 05:30:15	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	1,266	83¢	$1,050	0x7b8414…
11-06 05:29:43	Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5)	Karmine Corp	SELL	1,142	33¢	$377	0x327e50…
11-06 05:29:07	AI data center in space by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	846	16¢	$135	0x884fa6…
11-06 05:29:01	Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	SELL	260	18¢	$47	0xf6cbbd…
11-06 05:28:54	Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	38	8¢	$3	0x4c986b…
11-06 05:28:46	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	No	SELL	7	89¢	$6	0x135b2f…
11-06 04:48:46	AI data center in space by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	375	16¢	$60	0xf11291…
11-06 04:48:46	AI data center in space by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	188	16¢	$30	0x8e9fa9…
11-06 04:48:46	AI data center in space by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	283	16¢	$45	0x646d2e…
11-06 04:45:21	Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5)	Karmine Corp	BUY	1,142	35¢	$400	0xe6de5a…
11-06 04:37:42	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	No	BUY	7	87¢	$6	0xa9cb17…
11-06 00:31:39	Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0xb67b63…
11-06 00:03:24	Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	BUY	260	18¢	$47	0xdaf233…
11-05 22:07:42	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	3,250	20¢	$650	0xafd408…
11-05 22:07:13	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	SELL	814	86¢	$704	0x477a51…
11-05 20:47:06	Will GTA VI break the 24-hour sales record?	No	SELL	40	8¢	$3	0x6dd353…
11-05 20:46:58	AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	60	28¢	$17	0x3913af…
11-05 20:46:52	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	5,050	12¢	$614	0x6bf5a1…
11-05 18:00:34	Will GTA VI break the 24-hour sales record?	No	BUY	18	10¢	$2	0xef002a…
11-05 18:00:34	Will GTA VI break the 24-hour sales record?	No	BUY	22	10¢	$2	0x4a1c08…
11-05 17:15:39	AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	60	23¢	$14	0x0d9ca6…
11-05 16:45:12	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	BUY	5,050	12¢	$611	0x500d01…
11-05 16:24:12	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	5,065	85¢	$4,300	0x696b96…
11-05 16:10:25	Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	264	14¢	$37	0xfce2ff…
11-05 16:08:42	AI bubble burst in 2026?	No	BUY	814	86¢	$701	0xb806c9…
11-05 16:07:15	Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	976	14¢	$137	0xb54b12…
11-05 14:04:31	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2027 meeting?	Yes	SELL	127	19¢	$24	0x429042…
11-05 12:53:34	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2027 meeting?	Yes	BUY	127	22¢	$28	0x1991a9…
11-05 12:50:07	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	3,250	21¢	$682	0xa862de…
11-05 12:44:43	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	671	52¢	$349	0xac9a0b…
11-05 12:00:34	Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	976	17¢	$166	0xf74808…
11-05 11:53:31	Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	264	17¢	$45	0xadbb9b…
11-05 07:32:45	Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	276	82¢	$226	0xde7d16…
11-05 07:32:39	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	12	57¢	$7	0x06a8db…
11-05 07:31:25	Will Zohran Mamdani announce a Presidential run before 2028?	Yes	SELL	5	10¢	$1	0x39f9b3…
11-05 00:17:12	Will Zohran Mamdani announce a Presidential run before 2028?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$1	0x74ce71…
11-04 22:52:33	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	12	59¢	$7	0x478ac9…
11-04 17:34:24	AI data center in space by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	173	20¢	$35	0x7c54b8…
11-04 15:36:55	AI data center in space by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	173	23¢	$40	0x105227…
11-04 15:10:22	Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	513	83¢	$426	0x22a9b4…
11-04 12:25:10	Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	789	83¢	$655	0xdbbd61…
11-04 09:36:28	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	5,025	40¢	$1,995	0x55cfeb…
11-04 08:58:04	Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026?	Yes	SELL	205	82¢	$168	0xd3b000…
11-04 08:10:57	Will Ivar Stenberg win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy?	No	SELL	117	82¢	$96	0xb0a340…
11-04 07:46:43	Will Applied Materials (AMAT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	0	80¢	$0	0x281d62…
11-04 06:13:43	Will Ivar Stenberg win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy?	No	BUY	40	85¢	$34	0x791166…
11-04 06:13:43	Will Ivar Stenberg win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy?	No	BUY	24	85¢	$20	0x6e3094…
11-04 06:13:43	Will Ivar Stenberg win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy?	No	BUY	33	85¢	$28	0x54a816…
11-04 06:13:43	Will Ivar Stenberg win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x06d898…
11-04 05:30:13	Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026?	Yes	BUY	205	82¢	$168	0x900dae…
11-04 04:29:33	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5,025	40¢	$2,005	0x989c00…
11-03 22:19:37	amat quarterly earnings nongaap eps 11 12 2026 4pt13	Yes	BUY	0	86¢	$0	0x63c7bb…
10-29 14:41:31	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	Yes	BUY	781	97¢	$758	0xbbe48c…
10-29 08:14:43	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	Yes	SELL	540	90¢	$486	0x0c533f…
10-29 08:14:41	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	SELL	1,000	34¢	$340	0xd4c9c9…
10-29 06:34:16	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	Yes	BUY	200	92¢	$184	0x19e4c1…
10-29 06:33:34	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	Yes	BUY	340	92¢	$313	0xa861bc…
10-29 01:27:05	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?	No	BUY	6	4¢	$0	0x8927d4…
10-28 23:36:25	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	BUY	559	34¢	$190	0x00b546…
10-28 22:55:22	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	BUY	362	34¢	$123	0xb55c08…
10-28 22:55:22	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0x639bd4…
10-28 22:51:38	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	BUY	59	34¢	$20	0x127e07…
10-28 22:32:46	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?	Yes	BUY	6	96¢	$5	0x18d5c7…
10-28 22:23:07	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	No	BUY	786	65¢	$511	0x25074d…
10-28 21:30:26	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	SELL	1,000	7¢	$71	0xce92a0…
10-28 21:28:46	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?	Yes	BUY	1,000	95¢	$950	0x7f6ba9…
10-28 21:26:13	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	No	BUY	214	65¢	$139	0xdc97d9…
10-28 21:22:43	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	BUY	950	35¢	$332	0x93f4bc…
10-28 21:22:43	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	BUY	50	35¢	$18	0x405522…
10-28 17:33:19	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $15M?	No	BUY	1,000	5¢	$50	0xa17dfa…
10-28 15:05:59	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	No	BUY	1,000	74¢	$740	0x309f6d…
10-28 14:05:37	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	BUY	1,000	21¢	$210	0xc4f530…
10-28 10:19:41	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	BUY	1,000	25¢	$250	0x5d446d…
10-28 03:36:15	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	SELL	985	24¢	$236	0x5ec69a…
10-27 20:59:05	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	No	SELL	265	76¢	$201	0x2b8741…
10-27 20:58:54	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	No	SELL	375	77¢	$289	0x5ee033…
10-27 20:58:21	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	Yes	SELL	514	80¢	$411	0xf476e8…
10-27 18:54:20	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $60M?	Yes	SELL	75	27¢	$20	0x9c723f…
10-27 18:52:09	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	Yes	SELL	100	81¢	$81	0xf381cf…