Charming-Sensitivity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$267

Unrealized P&L

-$6

Hit rate

45.1%

Resolved

295

Trades

1,448

lifetime

Volume

$9.83K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$80

5 positions

First seen

2026-03-12

last 10-26 16:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 47 days

Categories

Other

99% 38% -$304

Sports

1% 100% +$37

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

37 active days in 12wk • peak 35 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	No	+86	$59	65¢	$56	-$3	08-14 23:35
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Yes	+47	$14	35¢	$16	+$3	08-20 19:05
Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	No	+4	$3	94¢	$4	+$0	08-15 01:39
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Yes	+14	$5	17¢	$2	-$3	09-20 17:18
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+200	$4	1¢	$2	-$2	10-11 19:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be more than 12 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?	28	$528	461	461	-0	Yes	-$20	07-19 20:11
Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?	32	$460	695	472	+223	Yes	-$63	08-02 08:52
will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by april 5	9	$327	90	323	-232	Yes	-$33	04-04 23:38
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26?	27	$305	730	640	+91	No	-$23	07-26 08:52
will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 april 19	25	$279	468	271	+197	Yes	-$22	04-19 17:38
Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?	72	$266	1,544	225	+1,319	Yes	-$202	08-23 20:04
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?	22	$251	295	295	+0	Yes	+$12	06-19 13:03
Will there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?	18	$203	260	248	+12	No	+$10	07-19 19:08
Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26?	10	$186	154	84	+70	No	+$12	07-26 11:52
Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?	17	$176	294	294	+0	No	-$3	08-08 18:23
Will there be 12 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	9	$158	110	110	+0	Yes	+$10	09-07 03:01
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 7, 2026?	4	$152	83	83	+0	No	+$14	04-11 08:10
Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?	12	$148	229	172	+57	No	-$12	07-17 06:49
Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?	9	$143	294	294	+0	No	+$12	07-18 18:01
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?	10	$141	126	82	+43	Yes	+$28	07-19 08:05
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	28	$135	196	182	+14	open	—	09-20 17:18
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26?	8	$124	117	83	+34	Yes	+$13	07-25 07:00
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?	6	$121	75	75	+0	No	+$15	07-19 07:44
will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 22	3	$114	166	71	+94	No	+$122	03-21 23:49
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	15	$103	187	54	+133	open	—	08-20 19:05
Will there be more than 14 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 20 - July 26?	5	$95	53	53	+0	No	+$8	07-25 23:20
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?	8	$89	71	56	+15	No	+$8	05-15 16:09
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?	15	$88	126	126	+0	No	-$64	05-16 11:42
Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	19	$86	97	97	+0	open	—	08-15 00:02
will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5pt5 or higher worldwide by april 5	12	$86	98	98	+0	No	+$7	04-12 17:27
Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?	7	$84	120	100	+20	No	-$6	07-19 02:41
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?	13	$83	124	100	+24	Yes	-$9	06-21 12:25
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?	11	$83	114	61	+53	No	-$20	06-17 19:12
Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	8	$82	105	56	+49	No	-$37	09-20 10:32
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?	10	$81	88	68	+20	Yes	-$16	05-15 19:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 16:16:33	Will Magomed Ankalaev fight Carlos Ulberg next?	No	BUY	13	55¢	$7	0xf16346…
10-26 16:16:18	Will Magomed Ankalaev fight Carlos Ulberg next?	Yes	SELL	7	46¢	$3	0x81f056…
10-26 16:07:41	Will Magomed Ankalaev fight Carlos Ulberg next?	Yes	BUY	7	55¢	$4	0x514446…
10-26 16:04:56	Will Magomed Ankalaev fight Carlos Ulberg next?	Yes	SELL	33	54¢	$18	0x49d6bf…
10-26 16:00:14	Will Magomed Ankalaev fight Carlos Ulberg next?	Yes	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x4bee05…
10-26 15:59:12	Will Magomed Ankalaev fight Carlos Ulberg next?	Yes	BUY	33	55¢	$18	0x3338d3…
10-25 21:29:39	Will Jean Silva fight Lerone Murphy next?	Yes	BUY	37	14¢	$5	0x26484d…
10-25 20:39:20	Will Khamzat Chimaev fight Sean Strickland next?	Yes	BUY	46	7¢	$3	0x9e382d…
10-25 20:29:44	Will Jean Silva fight Alexander Volkanovski next?	Yes	BUY	60	6¢	$4	0x4724f9…
10-25 20:29:00	Will Jean Silva fight Alexander Volkanovski next?	Yes	BUY	72	5¢	$4	0xab0c30…
10-23 12:08:11	UFC 333: Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Alexander Volkov	BUY	78	53¢	$42	0xb96809…
10-17 22:02:06	Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	97	66¢	$64	0x7af3bf…
10-11 19:15:30	Will Alexander Volkanovski be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x168d15…
10-11 19:11:25	Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$4	0x2119ac…
10-04 13:20:10	Will the Swiss National Bank increase the SNB policy rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0xb898a1…
09-20 17:20:22	Will a 7.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?	No	BUY	29	62¢	$18	0xf4d6fc…
09-20 17:18:13	Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	23¢	$3	0x8abe55…
09-20 17:18:12	Will a 7.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?	No	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0xeec738…
09-20 10:32:31	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	18	73¢	$13	0x43fb1d…
09-20 09:45:43	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	18	68¢	$12	0x82c82a…
09-20 05:00:57	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	2	78¢	$2	0x6d8ccc…
09-20 02:01:24	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	2	76¢	$2	0xd1ebaa…
09-19 22:04:06	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	2	75¢	$2	0xada644…
09-19 21:02:02	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	43	74¢	$32	0x0e59d5…
09-14 22:01:24	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x1fe76e…
09-14 11:10:58	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x205ae3…
09-14 09:51:09	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	38	24¢	$9	0x389d33…
09-14 09:48:55	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	31	45¢	$14	0xb61685…
09-12 16:11:25	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	38	28¢	$11	0x52fc1c…
09-07 03:01:18	Will there be 12 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	70	96¢	$67	0x006fb6…
09-07 02:24:39	Will there be 12 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	25	83¢	$21	0x5b7436…
09-07 02:21:27	Will there be 12 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	25	83¢	$21	0x360376…
09-07 02:20:19	Will there be 12 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0xd6413f…
09-06 17:04:07	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	7	11¢	$1	0x2ec03a…
09-06 16:52:00	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x0578a5…
09-06 16:48:22	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	2	9¢	$0	0x4e1d91…
09-06 15:44:40	Will a 7.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?	No	SELL	20	71¢	$14	0x0278d6…
09-06 12:19:22	Will there be 12 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0xd0a12d…
09-06 12:19:22	Will there be 12 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	10	43¢	$4	0xaf39a4…
09-06 12:19:22	Will there be 12 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	25	43¢	$11	0xac087b…
09-06 11:13:24	Will there be 12 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xce3ca6…
09-06 10:15:28	Will there be 12 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	28	41¢	$11	0x6fe6db…
09-06 10:15:27	Will a 7.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?	No	SELL	23	41¢	$9	0x358e59…
09-06 10:10:48	Will a 7.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?	No	SELL	20	42¢	$8	0xa93e4e…
09-06 10:06:15	Will a 7.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?	No	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0xd459ff…
09-05 01:01:37	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	2	75¢	$2	0x823dda…
09-05 00:16:01	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	2	75¢	$2	0xf734fa…
09-04 19:37:01	Will a 7.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?	No	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x7a628c…
09-04 08:02:00	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x69ef78…
09-03 23:02:45	Will a 7.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?	No	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x266b40…
09-03 17:03:04	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x6506f6…
09-03 14:02:09	Will a 7.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?	No	BUY	25	65¢	$16	0x62865b…
09-03 11:45:33	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0xd1d368…
09-02 13:02:46	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	11	7¢	$1	0xee838d…
09-02 13:02:45	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	9	81¢	$7	0xf349a3…
09-02 12:57:36	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	19	8¢	$2	0x09adbc…
09-02 06:01:03	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x180e47…
09-02 05:30:52	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	49	16¢	$8	0x1c4f37…
09-02 00:13:25	Will a 7.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?	No	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xf47eec…
09-01 14:03:07	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xa94ee9…
09-01 13:29:24	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	11	85¢	$9	0xe4137c…
09-01 13:02:06	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	3	50¢	$2	0xb023f7…
09-01 11:02:04	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x61cf2d…
09-01 08:47:51	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	65	19¢	$12	0x6abeb0…
09-01 07:02:33	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xcdcb3f…
09-01 03:00:54	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x0c6acc…
09-01 01:24:09	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	6	25¢	$2	0x904327…
08-31 22:01:51	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	7	24¢	$2	0xb52a63…
08-31 20:02:22	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	6	24¢	$1	0xcf7e8d…
08-31 19:01:10	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0xe3790d…
08-31 14:01:34	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	33	22¢	$7	0x315ba5…
08-31 10:47:12	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	58	21¢	$12	0x4eb9a6…
08-31 06:01:42	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xa24493…
08-30 22:44:52	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x24b022…
08-30 22:24:36	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	25	44¢	$11	0x437c20…
08-30 20:04:18	Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x78c8c0…
08-30 17:50:00	Will a 7.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by September 30?	No	BUY	55	27¢	$15	0x3eaf78…
08-30 17:47:48	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	54	25¢	$14	0xb6ae0f…
08-24 12:04:09	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	8	46¢	$4	0x917400…
08-24 12:01:55	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	31	46¢	$14	0x90f5d1…
08-24 10:23:36	Will there be 9 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0xdbe919…
08-24 10:01:46	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x456fab…
08-24 06:00:39	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xe0d1c2…
08-23 20:59:43	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	50	23¢	$12	0xb8e609…
08-23 20:04:27	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?	No	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0xb72ce6…
08-23 19:37:03	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?	No	SELL	2	2¢	$0	0xed202c…
08-23 18:28:25	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	3	85¢	$3	0x059f05…
08-23 18:19:21	Will there be 9 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x13a0cf…
08-23 18:19:19	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0xb7bac5…
08-23 17:09:27	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?	No	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0xaaa5e8…
08-23 16:26:04	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?	No	SELL	4	1¢	$0	0xff95b7…
08-23 14:45:07	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?	No	SELL	3	1¢	$0	0xd7173f…
08-23 14:29:27	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?	No	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0xa347f3…
08-23 14:06:39	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?	No	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x91c422…
08-23 14:05:58	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?	No	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x0cb563…
08-23 14:05:15	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?	No	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x8ef1f7…
08-23 13:51:04	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?	No	BUY	8	15¢	$1	0x025c59…
08-23 13:50:19	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?	No	BUY	97	15¢	$15	0xabecde…
08-23 13:48:45	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?	No	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0x6a5542…
08-23 13:45:33	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 17 - August 23?	No	BUY	24	15¢	$4	0x042221…