Insignificant-Forelimb — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$258

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

76.5%

Resolved

Trades

42,082

lifetime

Volume

$811.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-01 06:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 12 days

Categories

Politics

50% 73% +$94

Other

31% 46% +$79

Sports

10% 88% +$114

Tech

6% — —

Crypto

3% 50% $-29

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

54 active days in 12wk • peak 2765 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	587	$14.7K	15,855	15,990	-135	open	—	06-21 07:52
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	283	$12.3K	10,660	11,760	-1,099	open	—	06-15 08:48
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	397	$11.0K	12,382	12,455	-74	open	—	06-14 21:10
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 14	366	$10.8K	10,966	11,382	-416	open	—	06-14 21:18
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	294	$9.3K	8,747	9,440	-693	open	—	06-20 14:46
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	366	$9.1K	9,300	9,638	-338	open	—	06-19 05:57
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	320	$8.9K	8,679	10,353	-1,674	open	—	06-14 21:34
will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	389	$8.8K	9,348	8,974	+374	open	—	06-17 22:13
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	372	$8.5K	8,374	8,926	-552	open	—	06-19 16:15
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	206	$7.8K	7,879	7,639	+240	open	—	06-15 02:49
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	276	$7.7K	7,965	8,425	-460	open	—	06-14 21:28
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	296	$7.2K	8,031	7,343	+688	open	—	06-18 10:48
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	304	$7.1K	6,550	6,547	+3	open	—	07-01 01:02
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 360 379	379	$6.5K	6,078	7,122	-1,044	open	—	03-13 15:55
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	144	$6.5K	6,927	6,646	+281	open	—	05-15 13:04
lol g2 fox1 2026 03 20	161	$6.2K	6,141	6,041	+100	open	—	03-20 15:16
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	181	$5.8K	7,123	6,450	+672	open	—	06-12 19:45
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	144	$5.8K	6,203	6,457	-255	open	—	06-12 18:05
will donald trump publicly insult jimmy kimmel by june 30 2026	128	$5.7K	6,080	5,567	+513	open	—	06-17 04:54
lol g2 fox1 2026 03 20 game2	118	$5.7K	5,920	5,475	+445	open	—	03-20 14:38
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 380 399	314	$5.6K	4,817	5,666	-849	open	—	03-13 15:56
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 280 299	313	$5.5K	4,528	4,969	-441	open	—	03-17 15:31
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	330	$4.6K	4,779	4,824	-45	open	—	06-15 13:34
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	194	$4.5K	4,769	4,767	+1	open	—	06-30 12:54
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	71	$4.5K	2,792	3,622	-830	open	—	06-26 09:32
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	139	$4.5K	6,164	6,479	-315	open	—	06-12 19:40
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	136	$4.5K	5,164	5,163	+1	open	—	07-07 19:30
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	99	$4.4K	3,974	3,889	+85	open	—	06-16 01:20
will iran close its airspace by june 15 20260609184136053	228	$4.4K	4,578	4,513	+66	open	—	06-14 21:31
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 260 279	271	$4.3K	4,265	4,662	-397	open	—	03-17 15:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-01 06:33:44	will russia capture novodmytrivka by september 30 20260714215009496	No	SELL	0	72¢	$0	0xeed9f9…
08-01 06:33:41	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0xd685c6…
08-01 06:33:41	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	0	43¢	$0	0xd3f443…
08-01 06:33:38	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	SELL	0	44¢	$0	0xc44833…
08-01 06:33:38	will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	Yes	SELL	0	18¢	$0	0x7471c4…
08-01 06:33:33	will russia enter krasnopillya by september 30	No	SELL	0	86¢	$0	0xc27bd4…
08-01 06:33:33	will dilution of iranian uranium be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201639	Yes	SELL	0	29¢	$0	0x5abb97…
08-01 06:33:32	will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 31 1 893	No	SELL	0	34¢	$0	0xaf41b7…
08-01 06:33:32	will mohammad bagher ghalibaf sign a us x iran deal by july 31	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x59f1ca…
08-01 06:33:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	0	55¢	$0	0x436767…
08-01 06:33:29	Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	30¢	$0	0xcf7949…
08-01 06:33:29	Discord IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	0	68¢	$0	0xa49569…
08-01 06:33:27	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175	Yes	SELL	0	62¢	$0	0x77f512…
08-01 06:33:26	Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	93¢	$0	0x3f4f9e…
08-01 06:33:24	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	0	84¢	$0	0x670563…
08-01 06:33:24	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	19¢	$0	0x312d04…
08-01 06:33:23	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	84¢	$0	0x73c7bf…
08-01 06:33:23	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	SELL	0	74¢	$0	0x42bcea…
08-01 06:33:23	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	0	51¢	$0	0x18e7dc…
08-01 06:33:20	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	SELL	0	52¢	$0	0x47abb4…
08-01 06:33:20	Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	4¢	$0	0x00ed58…
08-01 06:33:18	moscow air traffic suspended by july 31 20260720155944304	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x9f69ef…
08-01 06:33:17	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	Yes	SELL	0	37¢	$0	0xfdd639…
08-01 06:33:15	Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	26¢	$0	0x7d24a3…
08-01 06:33:15	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	0	48¢	$0	0x5c48e3…
08-01 06:33:15	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260629155934232 846	No	SELL	0	46¢	$0	0x1e3536…
08-01 06:33:14	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	15¢	$0	0x58a9ed…
08-01 06:33:12	will russia enter stavky by september 30	Yes	SELL	0	39¢	$0	0xabf89d…
08-01 06:33:09	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	0	34¢	$0	0xae8fc2…
08-01 06:33:09	will openais valuation hit high 1pt25t by december 31 366 424	Yes	SELL	0	37¢	$0	0x791924…
08-01 06:33:08	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	0	64¢	$0	0x3d5442…
08-01 06:33:06	iran military action against a gulf state on july 31 20260708212322956	Yes	SELL	0	0¢	$0	0x499903…
08-01 06:33:05	iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175	No	SELL	0	34¢	$0	0x84b0f7…
08-01 06:33:03	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	No	SELL	0	70¢	$0	0x34fa1a…
08-01 06:33:00	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$0	0x85f85c…
08-01 06:32:59	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	SELL	1	73¢	$0	0x0c33c2…
08-01 06:32:56	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	59¢	$0	0xf52247…
08-01 06:32:56	israel military action against greater beirut by july 31 20260708204650550	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x99b50f…
08-01 06:32:56	Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	1	89¢	$0	0x3b964a…
08-01 06:32:51	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by september 30 2026 715	No	SELL	1	81¢	$0	0xd7a86e…
08-01 06:32:51	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	No	SELL	1	63¢	$0	0x93ae6e…
08-01 06:32:50	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0x2bede9…
08-01 06:32:48	will a 5 uranium enrichment cap 1 year be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201637	Yes	SELL	1	28¢	$0	0x90fe87…
08-01 06:32:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	No	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x5338b9…
08-01 06:32:45	will houthis successfully target shipping on august 8 2026 20260722225036932	No	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0x3e806f…
08-01 06:32:44	Will OpenAI announce a ring in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0xc77cb6…
08-01 06:32:42	moscow air traffic suspended by august 31 20260720155944305	No	SELL	1	25¢	$0	0xc9bb97…
08-01 06:32:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x963c61…
08-01 06:32:41	will trump speak to ursula von der leyen in july 20260626154217433	Yes	SELL	1	1¢	$0	0x4f1279…
08-01 06:32:41	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	SELL	1	39¢	$0	0x3eedcd…
08-01 06:32:39	untitled market 1 20260629155005352	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x80cd7b…
08-01 06:32:39	will openais valuation hit high 900b by december 31 942 235	Yes	SELL	1	71¢	$0	0x42682b…
08-01 06:32:38	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0xee26dd…
08-01 06:32:38	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x078548…
08-01 06:32:35	will bulk launch a token by june 30 2027	No	SELL	1	54¢	$0	0x26b5e1…
08-01 06:32:33	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0xcc8a01…
08-01 06:32:32	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x380ac8…
08-01 06:32:30	Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	45¢	$0	0xe30d28…
08-01 06:32:30	Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0x6ad1a9…
08-01 06:32:27	will base launch a token by december 31 2027	No	SELL	1	42¢	$0	0x3459b7…
08-01 06:32:23	israel x lebanon diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260720155040248	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x953d0b…
08-01 06:32:23	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	18¢	$0	0x0636d5…
08-01 06:32:20	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xcdadb1…
08-01 06:32:18	will jonathan hofeller be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212486	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0xa35900…
08-01 06:32:17	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	No	SELL	1	14¢	$0	0xec591b…
08-01 06:32:15	will iran reconstruction funding be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201638	Yes	SELL	1	29¢	$0	0xff21dd…
08-01 06:32:14	iran military action against a gulf state on july 31 20260708212322956	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0xb5560b…
08-01 06:32:12	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	Yes	SELL	1	4¢	$0	0xff5865…
08-01 06:32:11	Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	10¢	$0	0x5de12a…
08-01 06:32:11	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	15¢	$0	0x57eba5…
08-01 06:32:08	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	Yes	SELL	1	18¢	$0	0xa34677…
08-01 06:32:08	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1	24¢	$0	0x766582…
08-01 06:32:06	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	SELL	1	62¢	$1	0xc3a66a…
08-01 06:32:06	Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2026?	No	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x462e26…
08-01 06:32:03	will openai ipo by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0xafb2e3…
08-01 06:32:02	Will North Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0xec4c9a…
08-01 06:32:00	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by september 30 2026 715	Yes	SELL	1	18¢	$0	0xbd1fc6…
08-01 06:31:57	will abbas araghchi attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260622201044260	Yes	SELL	1	17¢	$0	0xbc5cd2…
08-01 06:31:56	israel military action against yemen by july 31 20260714001321877	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x562304…
08-01 06:31:56	yevhen khmara appointed as ukrainian minister of defence by july 31 20260716170825742 638	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x11d0fd…
08-01 06:31:54	will russia enter krasnopillya by september 30	Yes	SELL	1	9¢	$0	0xece732…
08-01 06:31:54	will abbas araghchi attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260622201044260	No	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0x998d9a…
08-01 06:31:53	will bulk launch a token by december 31 2026	No	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0xd4fd30…
08-01 06:31:51	will trump speak to luiz inacio lula da silva in july 20260626154217439	No	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0xe5eba7…
08-01 06:31:51	will houthis successfully target shipping on august 8 2026 20260722225036932	Yes	SELL	1	11¢	$0	0xdc31db…
08-01 06:31:51	putin out as president of russia by june 30 2027	No	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0xccf247…
08-01 06:31:50	Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	1	68¢	$1	0x3dba1a…
08-01 06:31:50	will trump speak to ursula von der leyen in july 20260626154217433	No	SELL	1	23¢	$0	0x2566e5…
08-01 06:31:47	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	1	74¢	$1	0xd026b4…
08-01 06:31:47	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	Yes	SELL	1	25¢	$0	0x9513f4…
08-01 06:31:45	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xee2585…
08-01 06:31:44	will there be houthi military action against israel by july 31 2026 20260714210303209	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x61bfe4…
08-01 06:31:42	total internet blackout in iran by august 31 2026 20260720155238428	Yes	SELL	2	18¢	$0	0xe323de…
08-01 06:31:42	yevhen khmara appointed as ukrainian minister of defence by august 31	No	SELL	2	22¢	$0	0x30be34…
08-01 06:31:42	will trump speak to elon musk in july 20260626154217440	No	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0x0f490b…
08-01 06:31:41	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 31 286	No	SELL	2	80¢	$2	0x9cf20a…
08-01 06:31:39	will mohammad bagher ghalibaf attend a us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260622201044261	Yes	SELL	2	29¢	$1	0xe1af6d…
08-01 06:31:38	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260629155934232 846	Yes	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0x17b80d…
08-01 06:31:36	israeli forces enter choukine by july 31	No	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x02085a…
08-01 06:31:35	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	39¢	$1	0x5b813f…