Arid-Hammock — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4.87K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

83.9%

Resolved

Trades

596

lifetime

Volume

$1.54M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$2.58K

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-26

last 08-13 16:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 25 days

Categories

Politics

40% 89% -$4,231

Other

30% 85% +$7,716

Crypto

30% 100% +$1,390

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	10	$452.6K	227,640	227,640	+0	No	+$1,283	06-03 16:25
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	2	$177.4K	88,800	88,800	+0	No	+$0	04-02 05:27
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	97	$91.8K	95,493	0	+95,493	No	+$3,740	04-29 04:28
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	1	$89.8K	90,000	0	+90,000	Yes	+$180	04-09 01:16
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	66	$85.5K	88,864	0	+88,864	No	+$3,329	04-17 16:03
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	3	$83.9K	84,105	0	+84,105	Yes	+$223	04-07 13:50
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	72	$69.1K	35,800	35,800	+0	No	+$661	06-12 10:40
will israel take military action in lebanon on march 20 2026	5	$65.0K	65,150	0	+65,150	Yes	+$130	03-26 16:25
Netanyahu out by June 30?	19	$37.9K	0	39,042	-39,042	No	-$1,169	06-03 16:29
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	60	$36.9K	100,951	64,951	+36,000	No	+$184	03-29 06:36
netanyahu out by march 31 854	11	$34.4K	34,582	0	+34,582	No	+$202	03-29 06:39
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	1	$30.0K	30,000	0	+30,000	Yes	+$30	04-19 11:05
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	21	$25.6K	23,364	3,344	+20,020	No	+$53	04-05 02:12
will trump post make iran great again or miga on truth social this week	24	$22.9K	22,950	0	+22,950	No	+$69	04-14 17:29
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?	4	$22.0K	22,242	0	+22,242	Yes	+$242	04-12 14:55
Netanyahu out by April 30?	3	$21.6K	22,439	0	+22,439	No	+$853	03-28 12:57
Iran leadership change by April 30?	4	$19.9K	20,450	0	+20,450	No	+$544	04-29 19:09
Iran leadership change by May 31?	6	$14.6K	16,000	0	+16,000	No	+$1,420	05-11 07:42
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	2	$10.9K	5,625	5,625	+0	No	+$185	08-13 16:49
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	1	$10.0K	10,017	0	+10,017	No	+$17	03-26 16:55
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	18	$10.0K	10,000	0	+10,000	No	+$40	03-26 17:50
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	38	$10.0K	19,356	6,463	+12,893	No	-$5,904	05-23 12:27
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	9	$9.8K	0	9,842	-9,842	No	-$89	06-03 16:26
will trump visit china by march 31	14	$9.5K	9,557	0	+9,557	No	+$29	03-26 19:19
kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	3	$9.5K	10,000	0	+10,000	No	+$490	07-18 20:31
Netanyahu out by May 31?	2	$9.0K	9,283	0	+9,283	No	+$306	04-29 22:01
will strc hit 100 by september 30 20260618001621118	2	$8.4K	5,450	5,450	+0	No	-$1,411	08-06 13:21
will strc hit 100 by december 31 20260618001621119	6	$7.9K	7,000	7,000	+0	open	—	08-06 10:10
Military action against Iran ends by April 29, 2026?	3	$7.6K	7,667	0	+7,667	Yes	+$67	04-12 14:48
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	20	$5.0K	5,029	0	+5,029	Yes	+$35	07-19 01:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-13 16:49:34	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	5,625	98¢	$5,540	0xcb9d38…
08-06 13:21:11	will strc hit 100 by september 30 20260618001621118	No	SELL	5,450	64¢	$3,488	0xd7cd0c…
08-06 10:10:02	will strc hit 100 by december 31 20260618001621119	No	SELL	6,630	43¢	$2,851	0x8df7e5…
08-06 08:55:44	will strc hit 100 by december 31 20260618001621119	No	SELL	32	43¢	$14	0xeec90d…
08-06 08:55:44	will strc hit 100 by december 31 20260618001621119	No	SELL	32	43¢	$14	0x4ae928…
08-06 07:56:44	will strc hit 100 by december 31 20260618001621119	No	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0x5ad88f…
08-06 07:20:45	will strc hit 100 by december 31 20260618001621119	No	SELL	301	43¢	$130	0x92ea09…
07-30 17:07:59	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	5,625	95¢	$5,355	0x9e79b5…
07-30 17:06:42	will strc hit 100 by december 31 20260618001621119	No	BUY	7,000	71¢	$4,936	0x087c75…
07-30 17:02:18	will strc hit 100 by september 30 20260618001621118	No	BUY	5,450	90¢	$4,899	0x67643b…
07-19 01:52:42	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	174	99¢	$172	0x0acc51…
07-19 00:33:27	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	99¢	$496	0xb243bc…
07-18 23:32:19	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,429	99¢	$1,419	0x502375…
07-18 22:55:46	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	143	99¢	$142	0xe12985…
07-18 22:32:24	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x4e82a8…
07-18 20:31:22	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	9,274	95¢	$8,819	0x6235e7…
07-18 20:30:52	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	701	95¢	$667	0xfac6de…
07-18 19:32:09	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	25	95¢	$24	0x9485ab…
07-18 07:26:36	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,000	99¢	$993	0x6e194c…
07-18 07:26:30	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0xd7eae7…
07-18 07:26:25	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	155	99¢	$154	0x294416…
07-18 06:45:51	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	324	99¢	$322	0x52c161…
07-18 06:45:40	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	155	99¢	$154	0x809691…
07-18 06:45:31	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,000	99¢	$993	0xe78e13…
07-18 06:28:49	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x29b474…
07-18 06:15:09	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x8d5e37…
07-18 06:10:27	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0xf1fd94…
07-18 06:10:21	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0xfd80d9…
07-18 06:10:19	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0x5e3d8d…
07-18 06:10:19	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0x3ba792…
07-18 06:10:18	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	0	99¢	$0	0xee6bc3…
07-18 06:06:46	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x246a12…
07-18 06:06:45	Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x9b78b4…
06-12 10:40:12	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xc3b7cc…
06-03 16:29:03	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	5,000	96¢	$4,785	0xa40dfc…
06-03 16:28:24	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	5,000	96¢	$4,810	0xad3da5…
06-03 16:28:15	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	2,000	97¢	$1,932	0x38e915…
06-03 16:28:06	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	1,000	97¢	$967	0x48911d…
06-03 16:28:00	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	5,000	97¢	$4,847	0x736007…
06-03 16:27:46	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	10,000	97¢	$9,710	0xf85d98…
06-03 16:26:37	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2,015	99¢	$1,997	0xe197a5…
06-03 16:26:37	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	751	99¢	$745	0x7aedf8…
06-03 16:26:37	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	678	99¢	$672	0x344ed7…
06-03 16:25:48	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	217,640	100¢	$216,987	0xa72e10…
06-03 16:15:07	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10,000	100¢	$9,960	0x0f221e…
06-02 22:45:03	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	550	99¢	$544	0xe1411e…
06-02 15:45:12	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7,000	99¢	$6,951	0x3baea8…
06-02 12:17:58	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	2,696	97¢	$2,626	0x8ad7d7…
06-02 12:16:19	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0x8951e7…
06-02 12:14:39	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xb72322…
06-02 12:09:43	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	225	97¢	$219	0xc6841d…
06-02 12:09:29	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	211	97¢	$206	0xde128f…
06-02 12:09:22	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	45	97¢	$44	0x06f803…
06-02 12:09:15	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	46	97¢	$44	0xe07c81…
06-02 12:09:15	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	224	97¢	$218	0x40fc74…
06-02 12:09:08	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	46	97¢	$44	0x9c6fca…
06-02 12:08:31	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xde420e…
06-02 12:07:37	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$7	0xb5fa2c…
06-02 12:04:39	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0xdc2fd7…
06-02 11:52:52	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x0884fd…
06-02 11:46:28	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	400	97¢	$390	0x9d170f…
06-02 11:45:25	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	358	97¢	$349	0x566410…
06-02 11:44:17	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0x9b02bd…
06-02 11:34:50	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	178	98¢	$174	0xb18eb0…
06-02 11:26:40	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$7	0x315ec1…
06-02 11:25:55	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	185	97¢	$180	0x27cde8…
06-02 11:19:45	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	19	97¢	$19	0x15df8b…
06-02 11:19:40	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	19	97¢	$19	0x948bca…
06-02 11:18:48	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	19	97¢	$19	0x7385f4…
06-02 11:18:39	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	19	97¢	$19	0x1fd8e0…
06-02 11:18:21	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	19	97¢	$19	0x1a7f0e…
06-02 11:18:13	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	19	97¢	$19	0xb02069…
06-02 11:18:04	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	19	97¢	$19	0x126298…
06-02 11:17:53	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	19	97¢	$19	0x563f22…
06-02 11:17:48	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	19	97¢	$19	0x8cf928…
06-02 11:17:41	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	19	97¢	$19	0xed65d1…
06-02 11:17:36	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	19	97¢	$19	0x7c659a…
06-02 11:17:24	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	19	97¢	$19	0x9a5171…
06-02 11:17:15	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0xb3c92c…
06-02 11:17:08	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0xaf7926…
06-02 11:17:01	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x2c059d…
06-02 11:16:52	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x939d6e…
06-02 11:16:45	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x584f2e…
06-02 11:16:40	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0xde64a5…
06-02 11:16:33	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x11ae0d…
06-02 11:16:26	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x5030f6…
06-02 11:16:19	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x6bf9f2…
06-02 11:16:12	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x9394fc…
06-02 11:16:03	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x11d0a9…
06-02 11:15:51	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0xe022b3…
06-02 11:15:40	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0xe96e87…
06-02 11:15:32	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0xae28e1…
06-02 11:15:25	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x356379…
06-02 11:15:16	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0xd87049…
06-02 11:15:05	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0xd02af7…
06-02 11:14:46	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0xf471f6…
06-02 11:14:39	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x20f1d3…
06-02 11:14:32	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$20	0x945f76…
06-02 11:14:22	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$20	0x07be12…
06-02 11:14:15	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$20	0xce9bcb…