Weak-Spring — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$146

Unrealized P&L

-$23

Hit rate

79.8%

Resolved

101

Trades

375

lifetime

Volume

$19.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$51

Open exposure

$10

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-05

last 10-07 08:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 61 days

Categories

Other

48% 57% -$237

Crypto

39% 74% +$93

Politics

7% 25% -$51

Tech

5% 69% -$2

Sports

2% 67% +$50

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+70	$18	8¢	$5	-$13	08-20 00:41
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No		+310	$15	2¢	$5	-$10	08-18 02:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will forsen beat xqcs minecraft speedrun record by april 30	13	$2.5K	1,339	1,339	+0	No	+$205	04-30 20:04
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	4	$1.2K	640	640	+0	No	+$44	03-06 19:54
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	2	$1.2K	700	700	+0	No	-$52	03-09 20:15
deepseek v4 released by march 15 678	4	$1.1K	600	600	+0	No	+$52	03-13 07:18
deepseek v4 released by march 31 446 353 924 266 292	9	$1.1K	500	900	-400	No	+$139	03-17 04:15
will bitcoin dip to 55k in february 2026 644 513 935	6	$992	500	500	+0	No	+$6	02-28 15:08
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?	9	$963	500	500	+0	No	+$33	03-05 19:47
will bitcoin dip to 60000 in february 694	6	$845	500	500	+0	No	$0	02-28 09:24
will forsen beat xqcs minecraft speedrun record by march 31	6	$786	411	411	+0	No	+$34	03-31 15:03
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	11	$521	270	270	+0	Yes	+$15	02-27 09:55
deepseek v4 released by march 21	2	$509	260	260	+0	No	+$10	03-22 05:28
will company k be accused of insider trading	6	$508	260	260	+0	No	+$9	02-26 13:41
will coinbase be accused of insider trading	8	$497	253	253	+0	No	+$7	02-24 12:59
Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by May 31, 2026?	5	$426	576	0	+576	Yes	-$426	05-06 19:17
EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?	1	$418	430	0	+430	Yes	+$12	04-01 18:32
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?	4	$386	260	260	+0	No	-$38	04-01 19:45
Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	2	$383	290	290	+0	No	+$52	03-30 16:54
P2P FDV above $15M one day after launch?	5	$350	177	177	+0	No	+$2	04-02 20:14
deepseek v4 released by april 15 787	6	$322	304	304	-0	No	+$5	04-11 06:08
Fluent FDV above $100M one day after launch?	8	$316	253	252	+1	Yes	+$12	04-24 15:34
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?	9	$267	310	350	-40	No	-$99	05-26 16:35
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	4	$258	140	140	+0	Yes	+$18	05-30 18:39
P2P FDV above $10M one day after launch?	3	$196	100	100	+0	Yes	+$2	04-02 19:41
Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by June 30, 2026?	3	$189	363	0	+363	Yes	-$189	05-06 19:17
Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch?	2	$188	100	100	+0	No	+$11	05-26 06:45
will xrp reach 1pt7 february 23 march 1	3	$187	95	95	+0	No	+$0	03-01 09:14
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	3	$186	400	400	+0	open	—	05-22 10:23
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	15	$158	316	316	+0	Yes	+$41	05-18 04:42
will hyperliquid reach 52 in february	2	$148	75	75	+0	No	+$1	02-16 16:47
over 6m committed to the squid public sale	4	$137	139	59	+80	Yes	-$21	07-03 04:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-07 08:31:21	Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	26¢	$7	0x1325e9…
10-06 19:00:26	Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	8¢	$1	0xc21983…
10-06 14:27:26	Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	3¢	$1	0xb4a0fc…
10-06 10:01:27	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0xc4c415…
09-25 04:25:51	Saturn FDV above $50M one day after launch	No	SELL	30	34¢	$10	0xc152b6…
09-20 08:04:28	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	No	SELL	15	1¢	$0	0x018f3c…
09-14 18:52:00	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0xb81695…
09-10 06:18:39	laptop fdv above 1b one day after launch	Yes	SELL	15	17¢	$3	0xdb4039…
09-09 13:22:57	laptop fdv above 1b one day after launch	Yes	BUY	15	8¢	$1	0x4339c9…
09-05 10:39:37	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x6f8bce…
09-05 10:39:37	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	1	45¢	$1	0x6903f0…
09-05 10:14:07	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x8872e7…
09-01 07:54:01	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xb80cc3…
09-01 07:53:12	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	9¢	$1	0xabc0da…
08-29 11:42:33	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	18¢	$2	0xad5777…
08-27 06:45:39	Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	12¢	$3	0x902a09…
08-27 04:26:54	Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	9¢	$0	0xe31e0e…
08-27 04:26:39	Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	9¢	$1	0x627bc9…
08-27 04:26:24	Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	9¢	$1	0x78d1bf…
08-27 04:26:09	Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	9¢	$1	0x8fc85f…
08-26 18:08:27	Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	3¢	$1	0x1bf0fa…
08-26 17:59:55	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	SELL	10	74¢	$7	0x5e53a9…
08-26 17:58:07	Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	24¢	$4	0xecfe2e…
08-25 18:07:15	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x1fa416…
08-25 14:44:10	Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in August 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	27¢	$4	0x4c27a3…
08-21 14:27:24	saturn fdv above 50m one day after launch 20260623191424367	No	BUY	30	25¢	$8	0x174828…
08-21 08:23:12	Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on August 21?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x34ab56…
08-20 00:41:07	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	25¢	$12	0x0c2edf…
08-19 20:04:15	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	136	1¢	$2	0x48b356…
08-19 20:03:07	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x61acf1…
08-19 15:22:19	Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x41074d…
08-18 17:51:16	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	1¢	$0	0x816ad7…
08-18 13:47:30	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	3¢	$1	0x5b3c8e…
08-18 03:06:57	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	SELL	75	2¢	$1	0x9e6b36…
08-18 02:17:52	Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	63	5¢	$3	0x56dddc…
08-17 16:20:30	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x8456f0…
08-17 15:40:15	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	145	1¢	$1	0x776536…
08-16 07:27:13	Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0x334c68…
08-16 07:27:09	Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0x7bdcc9…
08-16 07:27:04	Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	47	5¢	$2	0xeb6c88…
08-15 01:16:31	Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x19d9d9…
08-14 19:53:13	Aligned FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	80	60¢	$48	0xc50d33…
08-14 10:10:30	Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	31	5¢	$1	0xc2a97f…
08-14 06:08:24	ethereum etf flows on august 13	Positive	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x1f535f…
08-13 15:35:15	ethereum etf flows on august 13	Positive	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xa6a7c4…
08-13 07:16:13	Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	BUY	31	5¢	$1	0x136ca0…
08-12 18:17:42	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	SELL	10	72¢	$7	0xc19639…
08-12 18:17:34	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	SELL	10	72¢	$7	0xfd4715…
08-07 15:27:13	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	No	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0x0b77a9…
08-06 11:20:45	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x10f819…
08-04 12:41:44	will elon post tesla on x this week 20260731162042273	No	SELL	2	30¢	$1	0x65aeeb…
08-04 08:27:11	will elon post tesla on x this week 20260731162042273	No	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0x173c2d…
08-04 08:27:08	will elon post tesla on x this week 20260731162042273	No	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0xedb3b8…
08-03 11:30:32	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	8	57¢	$4	0x3254d6…
08-03 11:30:17	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xddbb93…
08-03 07:46:50	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x6c2e2d…
08-03 07:33:32	will squid launch a token by august 31 2026	No	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0xcaa330…
08-03 07:28:27	will hyperliquid dip to 40 in august	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xda775e…
08-03 07:23:39	will elon post tesla on x this week 20260731162042273	No	BUY	13	14¢	$2	0x5e3f93…
08-02 23:59:05	will elon post claude on x this week 20260724155239126	No	SELL	19	97¢	$18	0x89355c…
07-28 04:44:18	will elon post claude on x this week 20260724155239126	No	BUY	19	71¢	$13	0x5e3b16…
07-28 04:35:06	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	65	21¢	$14	0xb1d888…
07-17 00:21:58	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x9b31fe…
07-07 15:50:43	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	71¢	$14	0x67fa79…
07-07 04:08:25	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x3c8581…
07-06 13:27:50	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	65¢	$12	0x70d47b…
07-06 11:41:34	Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x6fbbd3…
07-03 14:28:35	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0x14b415…
07-03 04:59:35	over 6m committed to the squid public sale	Yes	SELL	59	99¢	$58	0x3fe787…
07-02 15:11:52	Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0xa022d9…
07-02 15:05:05	Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x8d0617…
07-02 13:24:20	over 6m committed to the squid public sale	Yes	BUY	59	60¢	$35	0x0849d0…
07-02 12:56:14	over 6m committed to the squid public sale	No	BUY	40	40¢	$16	0x0eee6f…
07-02 11:57:20	over 6m committed to the squid public sale	No	BUY	40	70¢	$28	0xcc8fb1…
06-30 13:36:14	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	30	91¢	$27	0xf0fa16…
06-26 17:08:53	will gpt bidi 1 be released by june 30 2026	No	SELL	27	83¢	$22	0x26fc2a…
06-26 16:11:46	will gpt bidi 1 be released by june 30 2026	No	SELL	9	83¢	$8	0xea8c94…
06-26 05:52:37	will gpt bidi 1 be released by june 30 2026	No	SELL	4	75¢	$3	0xc599ac…
06-25 17:40:43	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	95¢	$31	0xb7e89c…
06-25 14:56:28	Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0x464fdc…
06-25 13:11:44	will gpt bidi 1 be released by june 30 2026	No	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x44cd33…
06-24 17:12:14	will gpt bidi 1 be released by june 30 2026	No	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xccd790…
06-24 16:54:50	will gpt bidi 1 be released by june 30 2026	No	BUY	3	51¢	$1	0x99b7e7…
06-24 15:50:41	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	236	3¢	$8	0x2ac5e1…
06-24 15:45:49	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	156	3¢	$5	0x9326ae…
06-24 15:38:58	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	31	3¢	$1	0xfbc1b1…
06-24 15:37:35	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	156	3¢	$5	0x845a93…
06-24 15:35:17	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	47	3¢	$1	0xa46208…
06-24 15:32:52	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	47	3¢	$2	0xe82f82…
06-23 16:39:47	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0x8aec9a…
06-23 16:39:46	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0x3bf2c6…
06-23 16:39:41	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0xb42955…
06-23 16:39:41	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0x859fef…
06-23 16:39:41	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	90¢	$5	0x24b4ea…
06-22 00:12:11	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xe8c621…
06-21 17:11:11	Reya FDV above $70M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0xf66a1f…
06-20 10:07:11	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	65¢	$26	0xd26bdc…
06-19 16:12:11	Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	37	75¢	$28	0x14bf2f…
06-18 07:59:55	Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	36¢	$18	0x55c24a…
06-18 05:10:53	Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0xad98e8…