Weak-Spring — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$594

Unrealized P&L

+$10

Hit rate

60.1%

Resolved

Trades

225

lifetime

Volume

$17.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$78

Open exposure

$70

3 positions

First seen

2026-02-05

last 06-10 08:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

48% 0% $-616

Crypto

41% 100% +$21

Politics

7% — —

Tech

3% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

44 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Aligned FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	+80	$44	70¢	$56	+$12	06-01 11:47
Reya FDV above $70M one day after launch?	Yes	+20	$12	56¢	$11	$-1	06-08 23:29
Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	+7	$4	42¢	$3	$-1	06-11 08:07

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will forsen beat xqcs minecraft speedrun record by april 30	13	$2.5K	1,339	1,339	+0	open	—	04-30 20:04
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	4	$1.2K	640	640	+0	open	—	03-06 19:54
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	2	$1.2K	700	700	+0	open	—	03-09 20:15
deepseek v4 released by march 15 678	4	$1.1K	600	600	+0	open	—	03-13 07:18
deepseek v4 released by march 31 446 353 924 266 292	9	$1.1K	500	900	-400	open	—	03-17 04:15
will bitcoin dip to 55k in february 2026 644 513 935	6	$992	500	500	+0	open	—	02-28 15:08
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?	9	$963	500	500	+0	open	—	03-05 19:47
will bitcoin dip to 60000 in february 694	6	$845	500	500	+0	open	—	02-28 09:24
will forsen beat xqcs minecraft speedrun record by march 31	6	$786	411	411	+0	open	—	03-31 15:03
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	11	$521	270	270	+0	open	—	02-27 09:55
deepseek v4 released by march 21	2	$509	260	260	+0	open	—	03-22 05:28
will company k be accused of insider trading	6	$508	260	260	+0	open	—	02-26 13:41
will coinbase be accused of insider trading	8	$497	253	253	+0	open	—	02-24 12:59
Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by May 31, 2026?	5	$426	576	0	+576	Yes	$-426	05-06 19:17
EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?	1	$418	430	0	+430	open	—	04-01 18:32
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?	4	$386	260	260	+0	open	—	04-01 19:45
Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	2	$383	290	290	+0	open	—	03-30 16:54
P2P FDV above $15M one day after launch?	5	$350	177	177	+0	No	+$2	04-02 20:14
deepseek v4 released by april 15 787	6	$322	304	304	-0	open	—	04-11 06:08
Fluent FDV above $100M one day after launch?	8	$316	253	252	+1	Yes	+$12	04-24 15:34
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?	9	$267	310	350	-40	open	—	05-26 16:35
P2P FDV above $10M one day after launch?	3	$196	100	100	+0	Yes	+$2	04-02 19:41
Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by June 30, 2026?	3	$189	363	0	+363	Yes	$-189	05-06 19:17
Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch?	2	$188	100	100	+0	open	—	05-26 06:45
will xrp reach 1pt7 february 23 march 1	3	$187	95	95	+0	open	—	03-01 09:14
will hyperliquid reach 52 in february	2	$148	75	75	+0	open	—	02-16 16:47
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	3	$129	170	170	+0	open	—	05-11 03:13
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	2	$92	50	50	+0	open	—	04-01 19:41
Tea FDV above $400M one day after launch	1	$84	0	90	-90	open	—	05-28 11:14
crint ita wst 2026 02 19	3	$71	58	30	+28	open	—	02-19 07:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 08:07:01	Arcium FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	7	49¢	$4	0xe8d4b7…
06-10 08:38:54	will tabi launch a token by december 31 2026	No	BUY	6	39¢	$2	0x1aa8b0…
06-10 08:37:31	will tabi launch a token by december 31 2026	No	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x905f86…
06-09 16:59:57	will tabi launch a token by december 31 2026	No	BUY	14	39¢	$5	0xac574e…
06-09 08:16:03	will krakens valuation hit high 12pt5b by june 30	No	SELL	10	80¢	$8	0xcee19c…
06-08 23:29:31	Reya FDV above $70M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xdcc5ee…
06-08 23:18:12	Reya FDV above $70M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	18	60¢	$11	0x05197f…
06-05 07:14:37	will surf launch a token by december 31 2026	No	SELL	20	68¢	$14	0x0ad679…
06-04 11:26:42	will krakens valuation hit high 12pt5b by june 30	No	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x223107…
06-01 11:47:51	Aligned FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	53¢	$26	0xf762e4…
06-01 08:00:46	Aligned FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	30	60¢	$18	0xdc9186…
06-01 06:29:06	Will Surf launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0xded3ff…
06-01 00:54:19	Hyperliquid listed on Binance by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x05cbb8…
05-31 15:56:40	Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans	Gujarat Titans	BUY	30	12¢	$4	0xdf642a…
05-29 16:42:15	Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals	Gujarat Titans	SELL	18	65¢	$12	0xdb2487…
05-29 16:42:15	Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals	Gujarat Titans	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0x92b4f0…
05-29 16:00:44	Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals	Gujarat Titans	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x44da73…
05-28 11:14:04	Tea FDV above $400M one day after launch	No	SELL	90	93¢	$84	0xcd0b03…
05-27 15:47:12	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	No	BUY	30	20¢	$6	0xb65bc5…
05-27 03:24:16	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	No	BUY	0	20¢	$0	0xe291a5…
05-26 16:35:53	Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	160	19¢	$30	0x9f8881…
05-26 16:16:33	Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	160	38¢	$61	0x5f514f…
05-26 15:53:13	Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	160	41¢	$65	0xda7dd1…
05-26 10:35:05	Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	40	58¢	$23	0x1a1efe…
05-26 10:05:54	Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	40	87¢	$35	0x95826a…
05-26 10:05:48	Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x9f6e32…
05-26 10:00:33	Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x2ce6b8…
05-26 06:45:08	Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xdf082a…
05-25 07:13:55	Solstice FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0xaa0eb2…
05-23 15:37:11	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 26?	No	BUY	52	4¢	$2	0x9443cf…
05-23 14:04:41	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 26?	No	BUY	38	4¢	$2	0x1599f9…
05-23 07:45:51	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 26?	No	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x21b7a6…
05-18 09:37:11	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18?	No	SELL	37	13¢	$5	0x8b6b21…
05-18 08:52:56	Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	30	29¢	$9	0xcb31ec…
05-18 03:26:46	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18?	No	SELL	11	19¢	$2	0x6f0338…
05-16 17:37:31	Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans	Kolkata Knight Riders	SELL	30	95¢	$28	0x1233c3…
05-16 17:36:53	Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans	Kolkata Knight Riders	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x68c52a…
05-16 17:36:51	Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans	Kolkata Knight Riders	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0x813e2a…
05-16 17:36:46	Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans	Kolkata Knight Riders	BUY	0	94¢	$0	0xc8e909…
05-16 17:36:46	Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans	Kolkata Knight Riders	BUY	0	94¢	$0	0xc0000f…
05-16 17:36:46	Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans	Kolkata Knight Riders	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xbcc15c…
05-16 17:36:46	Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans	Kolkata Knight Riders	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x54e3fc…
05-16 17:36:30	Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans	Kolkata Knight Riders	BUY	0	94¢	$0	0xeb2b2a…
05-16 17:36:30	Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans	Kolkata Knight Riders	BUY	0	94¢	$0	0xe83b30…
05-16 17:36:30	Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans	Kolkata Knight Riders	BUY	0	94¢	$0	0x88ef9d…
05-16 17:36:30	Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans	Kolkata Knight Riders	BUY	0	94¢	$0	0x51a8be…
05-16 17:36:30	Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans	Kolkata Knight Riders	BUY	4	94¢	$4	0x09d320…
05-16 14:09:09	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18?	No	BUY	29	18¢	$5	0x99df8d…
05-16 04:36:47	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18?	No	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x77dd02…
05-14 09:03:18	MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18?	No	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0xe95455…
05-14 09:00:25	Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0xf75f1b…
05-11 03:13:01	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	SELL	170	12¢	$20	0x017823…
05-09 16:37:00	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	BUY	50	56¢	$28	0x8ae151…
05-09 07:25:41	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	BUY	120	67¢	$80	0xb807a1…
05-06 19:17:16	Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	300	50¢	$150	0x1f7f43…
05-06 19:17:07	Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	300	70¢	$210	0x083cf0…
05-06 19:17:05	Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	91	75¢	$68	0xfcdc8d…
05-06 19:15:55	Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0xab4ead…
05-06 16:04:23	Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	26	62¢	$16	0x40548d…
05-05 13:42:52	Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xc12419…
05-04 20:32:00	Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	37	62¢	$23	0x289971…
05-04 16:23:30	Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	65	83¢	$54	0xad7bc0…
04-30 20:04:48	will forsen beat xqcs minecraft speedrun record by april 30	No	SELL	191	100¢	$191	0xed33cd…
04-30 20:04:36	will forsen beat xqcs minecraft speedrun record by april 30	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0xba830c…
04-30 20:04:16	will forsen beat xqcs minecraft speedrun record by april 30	No	SELL	1,117	100¢	$1,115	0xd368cf…
04-24 15:35:58	will forsen beat xqcs minecraft speedrun record by april 30	No	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0x4fa08f…
04-24 15:34:54	Fluent FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	252	65¢	$164	0x2f195b…
04-24 03:45:38	DeepSeek V4 released by April 30?	Yes	BUY	29	89¢	$26	0xf46bde…
04-23 18:41:32	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	84¢	$25	0x0bfd96…
04-21 12:10:54	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	71¢	$21	0x8d522e…
04-21 08:24:58	Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	Yes	BUY	17	15¢	$2	0x7a8bd7…
04-21 05:26:36	Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x592f38…
04-13 15:05:39	Fluent FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	9	49¢	$4	0x001536…
04-13 14:50:09	Fluent FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	5	84¢	$5	0x0b1984…
04-11 16:18:27	Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	Yes	BUY	8	16¢	$1	0x5b29f9…
04-11 12:16:13	Fluent FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0xc26da2…
04-11 11:48:43	Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	Yes	BUY	26	17¢	$4	0x74f8e6…
04-11 11:47:03	Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	Yes	BUY	23	16¢	$4	0x1b779b…
04-11 11:46:27	Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	Yes	BUY	12	15¢	$2	0x2ee5cd…
04-11 09:05:59	Fluent FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	59¢	$59	0xfa6e67…
04-11 06:37:25	will forsen beat xqcs minecraft speedrun record by april 30	No	BUY	405	89¢	$360	0x0903ad…
04-11 06:08:23	deepseek v4 released by april 15 787	No	SELL	16	96¢	$15	0xa45132…
04-11 00:16:33	Fluent FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	62¢	$62	0x990e38…
04-10 14:07:37	OneFootball FDV above $35M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0xc62b63…
04-10 11:24:09	will forsen beat xqcs minecraft speedrun record by april 30	No	BUY	69	86¢	$60	0x4adb2c…
04-10 11:21:41	Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	Yes	BUY	130	19¢	$25	0x3f2cc9…
04-10 11:20:49	Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	Yes	BUY	197	21¢	$41	0xdb1d3c…
04-10 08:29:03	Fluent FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x076989…
04-10 07:51:47	OneFootball FDV above $35M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xd2605b…
04-10 06:30:19	will forsen beat xqcs minecraft speedrun record by april 30	No	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x39f191…
04-10 04:11:03	Fluent FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	7	66¢	$5	0x0ba307…
04-10 04:10:43	Fluent FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	7	66¢	$5	0xd03cc1…
04-09 21:12:39	will forsen beat xqcs minecraft speedrun record by april 30	No	BUY	6	85¢	$6	0xa565f7…
04-09 17:44:19	will forsen beat xqcs minecraft speedrun record by april 30	No	BUY	67	85¢	$57	0xbeb9a4…
04-09 12:35:17	Over $2M committed to the Fluent public sale?	Yes	SELL	6	55¢	$4	0xfe67fc…
04-09 06:42:53	will forsen beat xqcs minecraft speedrun record by april 30	No	BUY	90	84¢	$76	0x166cb4…
04-09 05:48:27	Over $2M committed to the Fluent public sale?	Yes	BUY	7	47¢	$3	0x735b15…
04-08 19:11:23	deepseek v4 released by april 15 787	No	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x268aad…
04-08 16:53:47	deepseek v4 released by april 15 787	No	BUY	11	59¢	$6	0xf6aeef…
04-08 07:44:51	Fluent FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x270ec3…