Defensive-Turn — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$53

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

85.7%

Resolved

Trades

745

lifetime

Volume

$11.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-25

last 07-21 14:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

64% 87% +$26

Crypto

13% 57% $-80

Politics

11% — —

Sports

10% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

48 active days in 12wk • peak 13 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (9) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the strait of hormuz on march 31	4	$82	43	43	+0	open	—	03-29 18:03
military action against iran continues through march 31 2026	4	$81	42	42	+0	open	—	03-31 00:46
will sp 500 spx close over 6500 on the final trading day of march 2026	6	$74	78	78	+0	open	—	03-31 20:09
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 12?	2	$64	34	34	+0	Down	+$3	05-12 16:23
fifwc eng gha 2026 06 23 goals harry kane gte3	2	$63	33	33	+0	open	—	06-23 22:10
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 11?	2	$63	33	33	+0	Up	+$3	05-11 21:02
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 12?	2	$63	33	33	+0	Down	+$3	05-12 16:10
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 12?	2	$63	33	33	+0	Up	+$3	05-12 21:03
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12?	2	$63	33	33	+0	Yes	+$3	05-12 16:10
spy up or down on july 13 2026	2	$63	33	33	+0	open	—	07-13 19:53
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 13?	2	$63	33	33	+0	Up	+$3	05-13 19:39
iran closes its airspace by june 8	2	$63	33	33	+0	open	—	06-08 08:18
spx up or down on july 13 2026	2	$63	33	33	+0	open	—	07-13 19:28
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 12?	2	$63	33	33	+0	Down	+$3	05-12 16:59
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	2	$63	33	33	+0	open	—	07-20 12:44
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	2	$62	33	33	+0	open	—	06-15 16:07
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 goals lionel messi gte2	2	$62	32	32	+0	open	—	07-19 22:16
fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 goals bruno guimaraes gte1	2	$62	32	32	+0	open	—	06-29 19:05
spx up or down on july 16 2026	2	$62	32	32	+0	open	—	07-16 21:44
israel closes its airspace by june 10	2	$62	32	32	+0	open	—	06-11 07:30
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	2	$62	32	32	+0	open	—	07-01 20:31
Ethereum Up or Down on May 12?	2	$62	32	32	+0	Down	+$2	05-12 14:04
Will Croatia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	2	$62	32	32	+0	Yes	+$2	05-12 21:19
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	2	$62	32	32	+0	open	—	05-29 15:01
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	2	$62	32	32	+0	open	—	05-24 08:30
us forces seize another oil tanker by march 31	3	$60	42	21	+22	open	—	03-30 15:24
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 240 259	5	$55	45	17	+28	open	—	03-26 17:55
nba sas gsw 2026 04 01	2	$53	28	28	+0	open	—	04-02 06:03
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins	3	$52	27	27	+0	open	—	05-03 19:41
fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 assists bruno fernandes gte2	2	$52	33	33	+0	open	—	06-23 18:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 14:44:09	spx up or down on july 21 2026	Up	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0x1f738b…
07-20 12:44:45	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	SELL	33	99¢	$33	0x297580…
07-19 22:48:07	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0x68c46a…
07-19 22:16:40	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 goals lionel messi gte2	No	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0xcbec7b…
07-19 13:00:12	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 goals lionel messi gte2	No	BUY	32	92¢	$30	0x5874c9…
07-19 02:48:09	ufc kam dri 2026 07 18	Dricus Du Plessis	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0xf318da…
07-18 22:34:09	ufc dander eellio 2026 07 18	Ezra Elliott	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0xc13911…
07-16 21:44:17	spx up or down on july 16 2026	Down	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0xa2a10c…
07-16 16:47:08	spx up or down on july 16 2026	Down	BUY	32	92¢	$30	0xc2f69d…
07-15 18:13:10	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 goals lionel messi gte2	No	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0x0d5a23…
07-13 19:53:08	spy up or down on july 13 2026	Down	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0x08569c…
07-13 19:28:43	spx up or down on july 13 2026	Down	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0x221638…
07-13 14:43:08	spx up or down on july 13 2026	Down	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0x188a53…
07-13 14:42:10	spy up or down on july 13 2026	Down	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0x044d65…
07-12 02:45:08	ufc cor mar 2026 07 11	Mario Bautista	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0x112dbb…
07-12 00:51:08	ufc rob1 nik2 2026 07 11	Robert Whittaker	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0xb18c0e…
07-11 20:20:14	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 assists antonio nusa gte1	No	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0x818cfc…
07-10 18:09:10	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 goals youri tielemans gte1	No	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0x70e2d8…
07-08 17:15:08	spx up or down on july 8 2026	Down	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0x2ff102…
07-04 15:00:11	fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 team to advance	France	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0x345997…
07-03 19:18:10	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0xf04933…
07-01 20:31:07	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x5f8e43…
07-01 11:13:08	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0x444152…
06-29 19:05:37	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 goals bruno guimaraes gte1	No	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x20cd8c…
06-29 16:05:10	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 goals bruno guimaraes gte1	No	BUY	32	92¢	$30	0xde93f5…
06-27 22:10:10	Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0x2fac28…
06-23 22:10:56	fifwc eng gha 2026 06 23 goals harry kane gte3	No	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0x3a0637…
06-23 19:08:08	fifwc eng gha 2026 06 23 goals harry kane gte3	No	BUY	33	90¢	$30	0x19162b…
06-23 18:03:13	fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 assists bruno fernandes gte2	No	SELL	33	67¢	$22	0x3e4e95…
06-23 16:21:08	fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 assists bruno fernandes gte2	No	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0x376a42…
06-20 21:02:08	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	Yes	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0x59e422…
06-16 21:32:08	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 16 2026 20260612160513701	No	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0x0ef086…
06-15 16:07:36	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	33	99¢	$33	0xf3f51f…
06-15 02:43:09	ufc der jos52 2026 06 14	Josh Hokit	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0x91f32b…
06-14 19:58:09	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0xdaa5da…
06-11 07:30:39	israel closes its airspace by june 10	No	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x24a274…
06-09 22:29:07	israel closes its airspace by june 10	No	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0x54ce6c…
06-08 08:18:12	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0xcf12f1…
06-07 20:54:07	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0x681454…
06-07 02:42:09	ufc bel gab3 2026 06 06	Gabriel Bonfim	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0xea2e2f…
06-05 13:38:55	atp mensik zverev 2026 06 05	Alexander Zverev	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0xb50fc1…
05-30 19:04:08	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0x1eafa5…
05-29 15:01:49	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x343baa…
05-26 22:45:07	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	No	BUY	32	92¢	$30	0xf1fcb2…
05-26 18:13:13	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0x02b774…
05-25 21:30:08	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	Yes	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0xf9442e…
05-25 18:11:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0x7d16d3…
05-24 08:30:19	Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Usyk	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0xc135e4…
05-23 18:00:09	Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Usyk	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0x6d0e1c…
05-21 18:00:09	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	33	90¢	$30	0xfc2797…
05-16 22:13:09	UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)	Alice Ardelean	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0x483199…
05-15 21:39:51	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev	Jannik Sinner	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x1b7bce…
05-14 10:00:51	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 14?	No	BUY	32	92¢	$30	0x3e49f3…
05-13 19:39:55	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 13?	Up	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0xaa54e9…
05-13 16:10:47	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 13?	Up	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0x2139af…
05-13 13:41:46	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 13?	No	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0xf912e4…
05-13 10:01:41	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 13?	Up	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0x200cfb…
05-13 09:52:19	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x5f2a61…
05-13 04:48:38	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13?	Yes	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0x579181…
05-13 04:30:40	Ethereum Up or Down on May 13?	Up	BUY	32	92¢	$30	0x32fa35…
05-12 21:19:05	Will Croatia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0xa6786d…
05-12 21:03:29	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 12?	Up	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0xfd4c7e…
05-12 16:59:30	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 12?	Down	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0xdf25bc…
05-12 16:23:31	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 12?	Down	SELL	34	98¢	$33	0x51dc0a…
05-12 16:10:16	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 12?	Down	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0xfd9276…
05-12 16:10:04	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12?	Yes	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0x01b071…
05-12 14:12:49	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 12?	Down	BUY	34	89¢	$30	0xd06817…
05-12 14:09:44	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 12?	Down	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0x5e6685…
05-12 14:04:13	Ethereum Up or Down on May 12?	Down	SELL	32	99¢	$32	0x739407…
05-12 13:56:47	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 12?	Down	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0x3b56fa…
05-12 11:03:46	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 12?	Up	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0x3288be…
05-12 08:12:47	Ethereum Up or Down on May 12?	Down	BUY	32	92¢	$30	0x99ddf1…
05-12 05:40:37	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12?	Yes	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0x43889c…
05-11 21:02:57	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 11?	Up	SELL	33	100¢	$33	0xecf551…
05-11 12:02:45	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 11?	Up	BUY	33	91¢	$30	0xbb10ba…
05-11 12:00:44	Will Croatia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	Yes	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0xc28de1…
05-11 11:57:35	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	No	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0xdea9d6…
05-09 17:59:48	Brazzaville: Calvin Hemery vs Ivan Marrero	Calvin Hemery	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x620c4a…
05-09 16:55:42	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Terence Atmane	Flavio Cobolli	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x9dd0a2…
05-09 16:08:18	Brazzaville: Calvin Hemery vs Ivan Marrero	Calvin Hemery	SELL	11	85¢	$10	0x9bbe34…
05-09 16:07:41	Brazzaville: Calvin Hemery vs Ivan Marrero	Calvin Hemery	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0x513170…
05-09 16:07:18	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Terence Atmane	Flavio Cobolli	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xda9c0e…
05-08 20:37:38	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Jaqueline Cristian	Karolina Pliskova	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x20a410…
05-08 16:56:21	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Daniel Altmaier vs Alexander Zverev	Alexander Zverev	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x626a16…
05-08 16:55:42	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Naomi Osaka vs Eva Lys	Naomi Osaka	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xf8af1e…
05-08 13:20:26	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Jiri Lehecka	Jiri Lehecka	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0xb124e5…
05-07 11:15:09	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Panna Udvardy vs Elise Mertens	Elise Mertens	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xb769de…
05-07 10:18:27	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert	Simona Waltert	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x68603a…
05-07 10:17:33	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Panna Udvardy vs Elise Mertens	Elise Mertens	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x3629b3…
05-06 22:15:51	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marton Fucsovics vs Dino Prizmic	Dino Prizmic	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xf49317…
05-06 22:15:33	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert	Simona Waltert	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x4110cb…
05-04 15:26:52	Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Federico Bondioli vs Emilio Nava	Emilio Nava	SELL	23	24¢	$5	0xededec…
05-04 14:32:40	Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Federico Bondioli vs Emilio Nava	Emilio Nava	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0x0cf1fa…
05-04 14:13:46	Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Camila Osorio vs Anhelina Kalinina	Anhelina Kalinina	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x9b7cc2…
05-04 13:02:16	Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Lilli Tagger vs Suzan Lamens	Lilli Tagger	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xb86635…
05-04 13:01:42	Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Camila Osorio vs Anhelina Kalinina	Anhelina Kalinina	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x309e8d…
05-04 12:30:12	Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Lilli Tagger vs Suzan Lamens	Lilli Tagger	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xda0cad…
05-03 20:21:02	Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins	Philadelphia Phillies	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xb6dd31…
05-03 19:58:06	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x836bda…
05-03 19:41:22	Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins	SELL	27	100¢	$27	0x5a0e1b…