Stable-Administration — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

-$578

Unrealized P&L

-$11

Hit rate

11.6%

Resolved (7d)

192

Trades (7d)

3,765

34,848 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$53.8K

$190.8K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$518

26 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-30 08:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 245 days

Categories

Crypto

61% 63% -$2,500

Other

24% 28% -$362

Politics

12% 43% -$167

Sports

2% 29% -$7

Tech

1% 0% -$81

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

65 active days in 12wk • peak 1026 trades/day

Open positions (26) Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	+397	$236	85¢	$335	+$99	09-23 10:56
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	+397	$165	15¢	$61	-$104	09-29 18:47
Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	No	+31	$18	55¢	$17	-$1	10-08 08:22
Will Golden State Valkyries win the 2026 WNBA Finals?	Yes	+31	$14	51¢	$16	+$3	10-08 14:36
Will Golden State Valkyries win the 2026 WNBA Finals?	No	+31	$18	49¢	$15	-$3	10-08 14:31
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	+20	$15	69¢	$14	-$1	10-06 20:06
Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	No	+31	$12	44¢	$14	+$1	10-06 16:04
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?	No	+10	$10	99¢	$10	+$0	10-06 18:01
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	+20	$5	31¢	$6	+$1	10-07 06:41
Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?	No	+5	$3	99¢	$5	+$2	10-07 17:52
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	No	+5	$3	92¢	$5	+$1	10-05 18:57
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	+5	$3	80¢	$4	+$1	10-07 14:33
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	No	+5	$4	69¢	$3	$0	10-11 00:46
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	+5	$2	59¢	$3	+$1	10-08 19:59
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-01 House seat?	No	+5	$3	45¢	$2	-$1	10-05 18:44
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	+5	$3	42¢	$2	-$1	10-08 04:51
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	No	+5	$1	31¢	$2	+$0	10-05 22:25
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	+5	$2	20¢	$1	-$1	10-07 14:02
Will Joint List win 12 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	+1	$2	99¢	$1	-$1	10-29 04:32
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	No	+5	$2	11¢	$1	-$1	10-06 02:36
Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026?	No	+3	$0	14¢	$0	$0	10-28 22:55
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?	No	+15	$6	2¢	$0	-$5	10-07 10:24
Will Lorne Doerkson be the next Premier of British Columbia?	No	+5	$2	4¢	$0	-$2	10-08 01:32
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 160m and 170m by October 31?	Yes	-5	-$1	1¢	$-0	+$1	10-15 14:57
Will Joint List win 12 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	+1	$1	1¢	$0	-$1	10-29 04:18
Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	+0	$1	67¢	$0	-$1	10-26 16:33

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	15	$2.5K	1,990	1,980	+10	Yes	-$6	10-21 21:30
Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	77	$2.1K	4,557	4,557	+0	Mbappé	-$131	10-26 22:13
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	41	$2.0K	2,049	2,049	+0	open	—	10-25 10:56
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	20	$1.9K	2,200	2,200	+0	open	—	10-23 11:23
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?	9	$1.6K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	10-24 06:32
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	21	$1.5K	1,611	1,611	+0	open	—	10-11 13:56
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	20	$1.4K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	10-26 19:51
Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	3	$1.3K	2,200	2,200	+0	open	—	10-20 23:34
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	17	$1.2K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	10-25 17:41
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?	14	$1.2K	1,044	1,044	+0	No	-$26	10-21 19:55
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?	13	$1.2K	1,000	764	+236	open	—	10-30 06:54
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	14	$1.2K	1,500	1,500	+0	No	-$139	10-23 23:22
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?	14	$1.1K	670	670	+0	No	+$0	10-26 21:20
Will Wildwood win Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	10	$1.1K	807	807	+0	open	—	10-25 23:15
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	2	$989	642	642	+0	open	—	10-12 15:53
Will the Republican Party win the FL-14 House seat?	10	$935	695	690	+5	open	—	10-22 02:50
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-09 House seat?	15	$924	700	700	+0	open	—	10-22 10:00
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	17	$907	700	700	+0	open	—	10-27 07:15
Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	9	$779	581	581	+0	open	—	10-26 16:26
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	11	$761	1,034	1,034	+0	open	—	10-19 00:36
Will Claude go down 8-10 times in October?	6	$715	448	448	+0	open	—	10-25 15:16
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	19	$680	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	10-24 12:19
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	3	$651	440	440	+0	open	—	10-21 23:29
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	8	$646	621	621	+0	open	—	10-13 13:17
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?	5	$646	632	632	+0	open	—	10-12 14:34
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 5%-10%?	15	$622	465	465	+0	open	—	10-30 05:57
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?	5	$621	395	395	+0	open	—	10-24 05:31
iran oman hormuz agreement by december 31	10	$613	949	949	-0	open	—	10-15 00:29
Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	9	$599	405	405	+0	open	—	10-13 14:12
Will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place in the UAE by December 31, 2027?	15	$580	524	524	+0	open	—	10-26 01:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 10:03:52	Next Israeli government formed by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	10¢	$0	0x78e834…
10-30 10:03:06	Next Israeli government formed by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	17	57¢	$10	0x772075…
10-30 09:59:00	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Tlaxcala Congress election?	No	SELL	20	31¢	$6	0x32a2cc…
10-30 09:57:10	Will United Torah Judaism be in the next Israeli government?	No	SELL	1	75¢	$1	0x17960e…
10-30 09:56:31	Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks per game in 2026-27?	No	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0xefe881…
10-30 09:55:30	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Attorney General election?	Yes	SELL	4	20¢	$1	0xb2188b…
10-30 09:54:48	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on October 30?	No	SELL	2	84¢	$2	0xf00eec…
10-30 09:52:28	Will Democrats win the Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire Senate seats?	No	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0x5daa75…
10-30 09:52:19	Next Israeli government formed by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	22	71¢	$15	0x65e63a…
10-30 09:50:09	Walmart (WMT) Q3 US comp sales (ex-fuel) growth 2.5% to 4%?	No	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0x6eb829…
10-30 09:25:09	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?	No	SELL	2	15¢	$0	0x4ddcf8…
10-30 09:22:31	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?	No	SELL	50	16¢	$8	0xdc320a…
10-30 09:21:55	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?	No	BUY	52	19¢	$10	0x0a4612…
10-30 08:42:24	Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $9.00 on November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0x4b6614…
10-30 08:39:12	Will 2026 rank between 7th and 9th among the highest domestic box office years?	No	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0x43fbd0…
10-30 08:33:25	Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $9.00 on November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x4bdb5e…
10-30 08:18:24	Will Amazon’s market capitalization be between $2.00T and $2.50T at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xa3d287…
10-30 08:09:10	Will Podemos win exactly 2 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	18	10¢	$2	0xc29a72…
10-30 08:08:37	Will Sulaiman Bolakale Kawu win the 2027 Kwara State gubernatorial election?	No	SELL	20	68¢	$14	0x3eba60…
10-30 07:57:49	Will Amazon’s market capitalization be between $2.00T and $2.50T at the end of 2026?	No	SELL	20	54¢	$11	0xe92f4d…
10-30 06:56:45	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	SELL	1,000	21¢	$212	0xb09fa9…
10-30 06:54:06	Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	60¢	$60	0x84d230…
10-30 06:12:06	Will the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0xe4b6bd…
10-30 06:07:34	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Indiana Secretary of State election?	Yes	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0xec4a41…
10-30 06:04:45	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?	No	SELL	192	74¢	$142	0x3f77d6…
10-30 05:57:06	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 5%-10%?	Yes	SELL	1	24¢	$0	0x78bf4f…
10-30 05:49:10	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana be between 500,000 and 550,000?	No	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x435056…
10-30 05:49:01	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana be between 500,000 and 550,000?	No	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x3f0bf1…
10-30 05:48:12	Next Israeli government formed by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0xea7599…
10-30 05:46:00	Next Israeli government formed by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0xd2650a…
10-30 05:40:06	Will Yashar be in the next Israeli government?	No	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0x4e08db…
10-30 05:38:51	Will Yashar be in the next Israeli government?	No	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0xe68042…
10-30 05:28:24	Will the Republican Party win the MI-10 House seat?	Yes	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0xbdfc54…
10-30 05:26:48	Will the Republican Party win the MI-10 House seat?	Yes	SELL	30	27¢	$8	0x297aae…
10-30 05:26:40	Will the Republican Party win the MI-10 House seat?	Yes	BUY	50	26¢	$13	0xbd2387…
10-30 05:20:42	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-20 House election by 40%-45%?	Yes	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0x841cb5…
10-30 05:19:45	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-20 House election by 40%-45%?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0xa5226b…
10-30 05:11:37	Will Amazon’s market capitalization be between $2.00T and $2.50T at the end of 2026?	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0xb6c634…
10-30 04:59:43	Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 3.0% and 3.4%?	Yes	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0x6557fb…
10-30 04:53:31	Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?	No	SELL	20	65¢	$13	0xb52474…
10-30 04:44:21	Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 3.0% and 3.4%?	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0xa5f2ef…
10-30 04:43:54	Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x757737…
10-30 04:38:22	Will IShowSpeed win Streamer of the Year at the 2026 Streamer Awards?	No	BUY	0	24¢	$0	0xcc3c57…
10-30 04:34:57	Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	20	56¢	$11	0xee5eee…
10-30 04:30:55	Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0xe248bf…
10-30 04:00:18	Will the Democrats win Miami-Dade County in the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	50¢	$2	0xa1ebd0…
10-30 03:58:57	Will Amazon’s market capitalization be between $2.00T and $2.50T at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	31¢	$3	0x885f86…
10-30 03:58:57	Will Babalwa Lobishe be the next mayor of Nelson Mandela Bay?	Yes	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0x371b02…
10-30 03:56:40	Will Amazon’s market capitalization be between $2.00T and $2.50T at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0xaae19f…
10-30 03:54:21	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election by 5%-10%?	Yes	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0xf46312…
10-30 03:50:30	Will the Democrats win Miami-Dade County in the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	49¢	$8	0xa6518d…
10-30 03:48:22	Will the Democrats win Miami-Dade County in the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0x40b524…
10-30 03:07:15	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	800	25¢	$200	0xf25b61…
10-30 03:06:27	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0x71a498…
10-30 03:02:37	Next Israeli government formed by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	62¢	$12	0x07b4b6…
10-30 03:02:09	Next Israeli government formed by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x6e02f9…
10-30 02:59:54	Will Babalwa Lobishe be the next mayor of Nelson Mandela Bay?	Yes	SELL	10	33¢	$3	0xd9b7c0…
10-30 02:59:52	Will Babalwa Lobishe be the next mayor of Nelson Mandela Bay?	Yes	SELL	20	33¢	$6	0x50990a…
10-30 02:59:48	Will Babalwa Lobishe be the next mayor of Nelson Mandela Bay?	Yes	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0xdcdd9c…
10-30 02:59:42	Will Babalwa Lobishe be the next mayor of Nelson Mandela Bay?	Yes	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0xb2adbd…
10-30 02:59:42	Will Babalwa Lobishe be the next mayor of Nelson Mandela Bay?	Yes	BUY	1	36¢	$0	0x3f3cad…
10-30 02:59:40	Will Babalwa Lobishe be the next mayor of Nelson Mandela Bay?	Yes	BUY	19	36¢	$7	0xf80072…
10-30 02:54:40	Will Yashar be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	SELL	19	46¢	$9	0xcc363b…
10-30 02:54:25	Will Yashar be in the next Israeli government?	Yes	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0xba91e9…
10-30 02:54:22	Will Yashar be in the next Israeli government?	No	BUY	0	53¢	$0	0xc60ec6…
10-30 02:51:16	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election by 0%-5%?	Yes	SELL	32	19¢	$6	0x619282…
10-30 02:50:18	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election by 0%-5%?	Yes	BUY	32	20¢	$6	0x7bec73…
10-30 02:41:04	Will Erzurumspor be relegated from the 2026-27 Süper Lig?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x95f81e…
10-30 02:40:39	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Georgia Attorney General election?	Yes	SELL	12	31¢	$4	0x1635bf…
10-30 02:37:45	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from West Virginia be between 450,000 and 500,000?	Yes	SELL	6	22¢	$1	0x963d8a…
10-30 02:33:24	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on October 30?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0xcb11fa…
10-30 02:33:07	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Yes	BUY	100	29¢	$29	0xd2e8a1…
10-30 02:28:39	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on October 30?	No	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0x28a95b…
10-30 02:28:01	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Massachusetts be between 2,800,000 and 2,950,000?	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x258702…
10-30 02:27:39	Will Raquel Carter win the 2026 Lexington mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0x5bccd9…
10-30 02:27:13	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,100 in October?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0xc67e15…
10-30 02:26:18	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on October 30?	No	SELL	7	53¢	$4	0x8a6323…
10-30 02:23:03	Will General Mills Q2 organic net sales growth be between -1.5% and 0%?	Yes	SELL	19	23¢	$4	0x2633f7…
10-30 02:21:07	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Chihuahua Congress election?	Yes	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0x246e86…
10-30 02:20:37	Will $ANSEM dip to $0.02 before 2027?	Yes	SELL	19	26¢	$5	0xfa20d6…
10-30 02:18:51	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on October 30?	No	SELL	15	46¢	$7	0x06560c…
10-30 02:18:12	Will RZP-Zehut be in the next Israeli government?	No	SELL	20	65¢	$13	0x674614…
10-30 02:17:13	CVS Health (CVS) Q3 medical benefit ratio (MBR) 92% to 93.5%?	Yes	SELL	10	26¢	$3	0x1dc670…
10-30 02:16:40	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be between 3,250,000 and 3,500,000?	No	SELL	10	82¢	$8	0x47bd70…
10-30 02:16:15	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on October 30?	No	SELL	17	50¢	$8	0xdc4f0f…
10-30 02:15:57	Will RZP-Zehut be in the next Israeli government?	No	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0xcd5377…
10-30 02:13:01	Will Republicans win the Kansas Governor election and Democrats win the Kansas Senate election?	No	SELL	20	66¢	$13	0xebdb2f…
10-30 02:09:36	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?	Yes	SELL	5	15¢	$1	0x82e896…
10-30 02:09:34	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?	Yes	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0x77f6d7…
10-30 02:04:51	Will Republicans win the Texas Governor election and Democrats win the Texas Senate election?	No	SELL	20	58¢	$12	0x1706d9…
10-30 02:04:40	Will Republicans win the Texas Governor election and Democrats win the Texas Senate election?	No	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x91290e…
10-30 02:03:52	Will "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 105m?	No	SELL	50	20¢	$10	0x7312a1…
10-30 02:03:51	Will "The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 105m?	No	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x8725a3…
10-30 02:00:43	Will Anthropic IPO on November 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0xc64806…
10-30 01:58:49	Will Anthropic IPO on November 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	16¢	$3	0xc357ce…
10-30 01:58:49	Will Anthropic IPO on November 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	16¢	$1	0x2631ad…
10-30 01:40:55	Will Anthropic IPO on November 18, 2026?	No	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0x74dfcc…
10-30 01:39:06	Will Anthropic IPO on November 18, 2026?	No	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x794aae…
10-30 01:27:58	Will Anthropic IPO on November 18, 2026?	No	SELL	10	74¢	$7	0x2ada64…
10-30 01:26:22	Will Anthropic IPO on November 18, 2026?	No	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0x82d9a9…