Magnificent-Farrow — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$427

Unrealized P&L

+$31

Hit rate

35.3%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

160

481 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$12.4K

$35.9K lifetime

Avg / trade

$75

Open exposure

$1.36K

7 positions

First seen

2026-01-29

last 10-12 16:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 29 days

Categories

Politics

46% 64% +$5,308

Other

39% 42% -$465

Sports

6% 40% -$18

Tech

5% 33% -$76

Crypto

4% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 92 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+900	$893	99¢	$893	+$0	10-08 07:05
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	+208	$204	98¢	$204	+$0	09-11 00:54
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	+109	$103	98¢	$107	+$4	06-19 07:55
jd vance out as vp by december 31	No	+52	$49	96¢	$50	+$1	07-09 08:07
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	No	+66	$61	75¢	$50	-$12	08-11 09:01
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-2,211	-$69	2¢	$-42	+$27	10-08 07:04
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	Yes	+66	$6	25¢	$17	+$11	08-11 06:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$7.0K	4,000	3,000	+1,000	No	+$4	04-06 14:34
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?	177	$3.8K	10,103	9,587	+517	Yes	+$728	04-08 02:00
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	62	$3.1K	10,200	3,340	+6,860	Yes	+$4,618	04-07 19:35
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	5	$2.3K	3,064	3,064	+0	Yes	-$500	10-08 07:02
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$2.2K	1,600	1,600	+0	No	+$494	10-08 07:02
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$1.7K	4,332	4,332	+0	No	+$52	06-23 00:24
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	22	$1.5K	11,500	11,500	+0	Yes	-$120	10-12 16:51
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	10	$1.3K	1,318	1,318	-0	No	-$2	08-11 11:54
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	19	$1.2K	1,619	1,619	+0	Yes	-$22	06-11 09:23
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	12	$1.1K	2,282	2,282	+0	No	-$12	06-11 13:00
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$1.0K	1,010	0	+1,010	Yes	+$5	04-18 16:57
Will Trump say "Trump University" in April?	8	$966	6,073	6,853	-780	No	-$6	04-07 14:28
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	25	$909	4,000	4,000	+0	Yes	-$15	10-12 09:53
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	31	$908	26,074	26,074	+0	Yes	-$143	10-12 10:12
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?	1	$893	900	0	+900	open	—	10-08 07:05
spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	6	$689	2,600	2,600	+0	No	-$65	06-11 13:14
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?	4	$670	406	406	+0	Yes	-$28	06-23 07:40
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	13	$443	5,201	5,201	+0	No	+$5	10-12 11:46
putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	1	$409	416	0	+416	No	+$7	07-09 08:09
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	2	$385	196	196	+0	No	-$1	04-06 14:33
Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by 10–15%?	4	$379	519	519	+0	No	+$5	06-23 05:55
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$370	578	0	+578	Yes	+$208	09-11 00:53
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?	4	$319	2,325	2,325	+0	No	+$2	10-12 11:59
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$309	1,222	1,222	+0	No	-$6	06-23 00:24
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	1	$214	578	0	+578	No	-$214	09-11 00:53
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$204	208	0	+208	open	—	09-11 00:54
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June?	1	$200	0	200	-200	No	$0	05-22 13:42
spx up or down on june 11 2026	4	$173	111	111	+0	Up	$0	06-11 10:25
grok 4pt6 released by august 13 2026	8	$168	320	320	+0	Yes	-$12	08-11 08:05
will pete hegseth sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950070	7	$140	4,578	4,578	+0	No	-$23	06-23 07:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-12 16:51:12	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	SELL	9,000	6¢	$540	0x8750a5…
10-12 16:38:48	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	897	6¢	$54	0x6c4111…
10-12 16:33:12	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	1,000	6¢	$60	0x166378…
10-12 16:29:30	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	241	6¢	$14	0xff5b3a…
10-12 16:28:00	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	121	6¢	$7	0x58bc87…
10-12 16:27:09	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	241	6¢	$14	0xef6d2f…
10-12 16:27:00	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	121	6¢	$7	0x0e093c…
10-12 16:26:39	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	14	6¢	$1	0x77749d…
10-12 16:26:27	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x191065…
10-12 16:26:26	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	47	6¢	$3	0xc4845b…
10-12 16:26:23	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	14	6¢	$1	0xf1861a…
10-12 16:26:23	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	1,753	6¢	$105	0x59e005…
10-12 11:59:00	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	2,325	7¢	$160	0x0fb90c…
10-12 11:46:02	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	1,850	4¢	$81	0x6d35b5…
10-12 10:12:36	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	SELL	8,602	1¢	$55	0x6e20b5…
10-12 10:10:14	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	146	1¢	$1	0x2356e6…
10-12 10:09:18	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	184	1¢	$1	0x748131…
10-12 10:08:39	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	1,670	1¢	$13	0xabe5b8…
10-12 09:55:22	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	2,000	1¢	$18	0x7a4a7e…
10-12 09:53:44	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	SELL	3,451	11¢	$385	0x47416e…
10-12 09:52:47	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	SELL	3,922	1¢	$43	0x96538e…
10-12 09:35:34	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	3,100	2¢	$46	0x96365b…
10-12 09:32:20	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	1,300	2¢	$21	0x019d29…
10-12 09:31:56	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	1,374	2¢	$25	0xd28b2b…
10-12 09:31:35	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	SELL	2,750	2¢	$47	0x2606f4…
10-12 09:28:17	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	3,000	2¢	$57	0x631f3e…
10-12 09:04:33	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	2,500	2¢	$56	0x8f44f4…
10-12 08:57:12	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	SELL	2,196	2¢	$48	0x81f069…
10-12 08:50:07	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	SELL	3,339	2¢	$70	0x8f10d2…
10-12 08:50:07	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	SELL	693	2¢	$15	0x8ab90e…
10-12 08:37:04	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	SELL	300	2¢	$6	0xd1dc70…
10-12 08:36:39	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	SELL	500	2¢	$10	0x1df455…
10-12 08:36:07	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	1,000	7¢	$69	0x83cd27…
10-12 08:12:46	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	SELL	505	2¢	$11	0x798c71…
10-12 08:11:55	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	SELL	1,500	6¢	$90	0x49a9b9…
10-12 08:11:31	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	800	4¢	$31	0xbd53c9…
10-12 08:11:02	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	SELL	2,111	2¢	$46	0x6b8bee…
10-12 07:52:39	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	3,000	2¢	$69	0x846ac9…
10-12 07:18:50	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	9	4¢	$0	0x996bab…
10-12 07:12:50	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	1,120	2¢	$27	0x22f0c4…
10-12 07:11:59	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	1,064	7¢	$74	0xdbe332…
10-12 07:09:47	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	6	7¢	$0	0xd0b9d4…
10-12 07:09:25	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	360	7¢	$25	0xc6cbd2…
10-12 07:08:59	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	400	7¢	$28	0xd13110…
10-12 07:08:59	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	1,170	7¢	$82	0xc73172…
10-12 06:55:28	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	200	2¢	$5	0xa1fdad…
10-12 06:07:29	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	680	2¢	$16	0xeac286…
10-12 05:40:51	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	SELL	6	3¢	$0	0x8aa836…
10-12 05:34:20	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	SELL	1,000	7¢	$70	0xcc19b2…
10-12 05:33:15	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	1,200	3¢	$33	0x9d5eca…
10-12 05:32:54	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	SELL	1,150	3¢	$30	0x5c4615…
10-12 04:33:03	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	2,000	3¢	$54	0xa67468…
10-12 03:40:29	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	SELL	0	11¢	$0	0x0bfe99…
10-12 02:35:05	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	2,000	8¢	$160	0xd8c4cc…
10-12 02:33:53	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	SELL	9	11¢	$1	0x94c93e…
10-12 02:21:53	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	500	3¢	$15	0x89cbfc…
10-12 02:14:39	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x76fc70…
10-12 02:14:09	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	200	4¢	$8	0x558932…
10-12 02:14:08	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	200	4¢	$8	0xac37b0…
10-12 02:13:59	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x1af1c8…
10-12 02:13:57	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	101	4¢	$4	0xf0c232…
10-12 02:13:57	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	598	4¢	$24	0x86464b…
10-12 01:57:02	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0x26eb5a…
10-12 01:56:00	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0xecb2c4…
10-12 01:55:33	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	BUY	94	11¢	$11	0x0583be…
10-12 01:53:50	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0xecdf58…
10-12 01:53:32	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	SELL	2	11¢	$0	0xc1c1ce…
10-12 01:53:29	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	BUY	700	11¢	$78	0xb920e6…
10-12 01:53:29	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	SELL	0	11¢	$0	0x3fb3c4…
10-12 01:44:21	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	SELL	3	11¢	$0	0x72c76a…
10-12 01:44:20	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	SELL	19	11¢	$2	0x74ee34…
10-12 01:44:18	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	SELL	2	11¢	$0	0x551a33…
10-12 01:42:59	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	SELL	1	11¢	$0	0xbf21a3…
10-12 01:42:56	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	SELL	5	11¢	$1	0x16ffcd…
10-12 01:42:54	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	SELL	0	11¢	$0	0x15e7a3…
10-12 01:32:03	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	SELL	2	11¢	$0	0x8e1b6b…
10-12 01:32:02	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	SELL	0	11¢	$0	0x06e788…
10-12 01:22:03	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	SELL	0	11¢	$0	0x6418a3…
10-12 01:22:02	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	SELL	0	11¢	$0	0xd88513…
10-12 01:21:33	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	SELL	1	11¢	$0	0x39eed0…
10-12 01:21:32	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	SELL	0	11¢	$0	0x86a991…
10-12 01:21:30	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	SELL	505	11¢	$57	0xa7254d…
10-12 00:57:32	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	BUY	1,200	11¢	$136	0x91fa8f…
10-12 00:46:38	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	BUY	295	12¢	$34	0xa6a330…
10-12 00:44:57	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	BUY	505	12¢	$59	0xde4f6c…
10-12 00:19:24	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	125	6¢	$8	0x0f59f8…
10-12 00:19:17	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	No	BUY	2,000	3¢	$64	0x78f698…
10-12 00:17:29	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	No	BUY	1,200	12¢	$144	0x12aadc…
10-12 00:16:59	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	2,400	4¢	$108	0x0d8581…
10-12 00:16:38	Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	1,200	7¢	$82	0x202fc5…
10-12 00:15:45	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	1,000	9¢	$90	0xbabf53…
10-12 00:15:39	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	No	BUY	1,000	9¢	$90	0x4a1ab0…
10-08 07:05:16	Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	900	99¢	$893	0x1df938…
10-08 07:04:20	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,211	3¢	$69	0xa9ef6b…
10-08 07:02:07	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,600	84¢	$1,342	0x028096…
10-08 07:02:01	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,564	15¢	$235	0x85a8c1…
09-11 01:00:25	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1,500	45¢	$675	0x60e150…
09-11 00:57:57	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,490	46¢	$685	0xb28ec7…
09-11 00:56:46	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	46¢	$46	0xbd49d7…
09-11 00:55:49	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,474	46¢	$678	0x95643a…