Likely-Fugato — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

395

lifetime

Volume

$25.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$66

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-05

last 07-16 03:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

55% 100% +$1

Politics

42% 100% +$0

Sports

1% — —

Tech

1% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 141 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	8	$3.2K	3,300	300	+3,000	open	—	04-07 21:08
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	9	$2.9K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	05-25 23:27
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	162	$1.9K	2,413	0	+2,413	open	—	07-16 03:02
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	19	$1.9K	2,109	0	+2,109	open	—	04-01 02:17
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	7	$1.9K	900	1,000	-100	open	—	04-30 05:57
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	12	$1.5K	1,100	600	+500	open	—	05-14 13:01
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	1	$1.2K	1,200	0	+1,200	open	—	02-05 17:29
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	1	$1.1K	0	1,102	-1,102	open	—	06-09 00:35
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	17	$866	405	677	-272	open	—	04-08 20:50
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	4	$780	914	0	+914	open	—	03-06 03:24
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	9	$654	400	300	+100	open	—	04-22 11:52
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30?	3	$632	650	0	+650	open	—	04-27 15:42
will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28	3	$592	610	0	+610	open	—	02-19 22:28
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	2	$499	500	0	+500	Yes	+$1	05-03 05:18
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	7	$381	400	0	+400	open	—	03-05 21:58
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?	2	$380	0	400	-400	open	—	06-08 21:30
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	3	$360	200	200	+0	open	—	05-14 17:41
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	11	$304	375	0	+375	open	—	07-09 15:18
will apple announce the iphone 17e by february 28	3	$287	299	0	+299	open	—	02-17 10:26
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	3	$239	50	200	-150	open	—	06-28 21:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	4	$231	170	120	+50	open	—	04-24 11:22
us iran nuclear deal by march 31	8	$197	200	0	+200	open	—	03-28 08:09
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	4	$197	200	0	+200	open	—	05-04 17:21
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	1	$196	200	0	+200	open	—	03-29 03:33
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?	1	$194	0	200	-200	open	—	06-01 05:12
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	5	$175	186	0	+186	open	—	02-13 20:04
will the us invade iran by march 31	1	$175	200	0	+200	open	—	03-29 19:50
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	7	$175	120	120	+0	open	—	04-07 22:46
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$165	100	100	+0	open	—	04-08 13:44
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	12	$128	217	0	+217	open	—	07-10 09:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-16 03:02:10	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	209	93¢	$194	0xd8a1e6…
07-15 04:39:37	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	SELL	58	99¢	$57	0x454787…
07-10 09:50:07	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xe126a2…
07-10 08:18:38	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x6ada45…
07-10 06:46:14	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	10	65¢	$6	0x6fe5e5…
07-09 17:59:56	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	17	65¢	$11	0x0545c1…
07-09 17:35:13	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	16	65¢	$10	0x4c1694…
07-09 15:18:38	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	19	96¢	$18	0x197612…
07-09 02:03:47	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x5436ef…
07-09 01:00:40	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0xb6fc4f…
07-09 00:41:22	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	9	65¢	$6	0xfa4e38…
07-09 00:27:47	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x352c42…
07-09 00:11:38	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	7	65¢	$5	0x2e3ecf…
07-06 15:56:31	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	38	97¢	$37	0x84c11c…
07-06 13:33:49	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0x413bc1…
07-03 07:40:26	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	57	59¢	$34	0x28a63a…
07-02 20:19:26	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xa74808…
07-02 15:44:40	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	58	78¢	$45	0xd8aa42…
07-02 14:51:53	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xc50fcf…
06-28 21:53:05	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	SELL	200	100¢	$199	0xd8a5c8…
06-24 21:46:44	will wti reach 85 in june 2026 from june 16	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0x4873fd…
06-24 07:32:04	will wti reach 80 in june 2026 from june 16	No	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0xe13a0c…
06-24 00:02:14	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	9	86¢	$7	0x35eba2…
06-23 17:20:52	will wti reach 80 in june 2026 from june 16	No	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0x480df9…
06-22 20:26:49	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0x268cf1…
06-22 16:23:49	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	33	88¢	$29	0x887b4e…
06-22 15:48:01	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	67	88¢	$59	0x6cdef1…
06-22 05:05:11	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xdd2d2b…
06-19 17:50:13	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	25	40¢	$10	0xc2bd47…
06-17 17:38:05	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xb17936…
06-17 16:01:31	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x576d80…
06-17 15:50:59	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	8	85¢	$7	0x1c584b…
06-17 15:09:22	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	6	85¢	$6	0x272ee3…
06-16 14:51:47	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0xc5756e…
06-16 14:06:47	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	13	85¢	$11	0xcc97c4…
06-16 13:06:12	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	15	85¢	$13	0xbf37e3…
06-16 12:37:25	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	19	85¢	$16	0x05471a…
06-15 15:50:21	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0x0356e5…
06-15 08:46:30	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x45fb84…
06-15 02:26:52	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x67e681…
06-14 22:50:33	Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	9	64¢	$6	0x686c11…
06-14 09:55:01	Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	14	64¢	$9	0xe16fe9…
06-14 01:03:03	Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	25	66¢	$16	0xcd62ef…
06-12 04:30:25	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	BUY	100	25¢	$25	0xfe8b6d…
06-11 18:35:15	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	179	81¢	$145	0x6f09be…
06-11 17:50:31	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x0ded1f…
06-11 04:59:58	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	695	80¢	$556	0x89b711…
06-09 16:50:16	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	182	83¢	$151	0xb1b3b7…
06-09 10:41:40	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x649cae…
06-09 00:57:00	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x65c459…
06-09 00:35:15	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	1,102	98¢	$1,085	0x5f4bd6…
06-08 21:30:00	Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?	No	SELL	391	95¢	$372	0xe35f98…
06-08 12:45:30	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0x2b91b4…
06-07 16:09:00	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	104	98¢	$102	0xcc16e2…
06-03 01:13:50	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	40	76¢	$30	0x979d59…
06-01 18:25:27	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0xe3dc57…
06-01 18:25:27	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x3eba4d…
06-01 18:25:26	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x7e2ba5…
06-01 18:25:26	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x6bbb52…
06-01 18:25:26	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x46dc90…
06-01 18:25:26	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x32502e…
06-01 18:25:26	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x24fc9e…
06-01 18:25:24	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0xf93b06…
06-01 18:25:24	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0xf629f4…
06-01 18:25:24	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x98a633…
06-01 18:25:24	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x8c7283…
06-01 18:25:24	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x53e43f…
06-01 18:25:24	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x048ef8…
06-01 18:25:22	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xea1102…
06-01 18:25:22	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x8a1346…
06-01 18:25:22	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x864025…
06-01 18:25:22	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x5bb1a8…
06-01 18:25:20	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0xd6d4d8…
06-01 18:25:20	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x84ba18…
06-01 18:25:20	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x6dd6e6…
06-01 17:55:25	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0xdee0b7…
06-01 17:55:23	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0xf9e607…
06-01 17:55:23	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0xa8539c…
06-01 17:55:23	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x82b9f3…
06-01 17:55:23	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x322b84…
06-01 17:55:21	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0xed4c30…
06-01 17:55:21	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0xe2b9e6…
06-01 17:55:21	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0xd061bf…
06-01 17:55:21	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x894e75…
06-01 17:55:21	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x7c08df…
06-01 17:55:21	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x4495c3…
06-01 17:55:20	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x8a10b2…
06-01 17:55:20	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x824744…
06-01 17:55:20	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x5a3294…
06-01 17:55:20	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x190ea7…
06-01 17:55:18	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0xeee97f…
06-01 17:55:18	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0xa59259…
06-01 17:55:18	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0x3923cf…
06-01 10:26:06	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x107c65…
06-01 07:26:17	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x9402f8…
06-01 07:26:17	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x064d83…
06-01 07:26:16	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0xe75b1c…
06-01 07:26:16	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0xbf8e4f…
06-01 07:26:14	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x9d6e16…
06-01 07:26:14	Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?	Yes	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x049a60…