Unrealistic-Methodology — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$105

Unrealized P&L

+$36

Hit rate

56.0%

Resolved

918

Trades

1,599

lifetime

Volume

$44.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$28

Open exposure

$256

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-29 13:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 209 days

Categories

Other

96% 51% +$469

Sports

3% 0% -$468

Politics

0% 0% -$9

Crypto

0% 50% +$113

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

75 active days in 12wk • peak 20 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+214	$150	76¢	$164	+$14	10-19 06:57
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+97	$30	40¢	$39	+$9	10-14 18:07
Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	+500	$10	6¢	$30	+$20	10-24 14:17
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+247	$20	7¢	$17	-$3	10-23 20:32
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes	+56	$10	11¢	$6	-$4	10-26 07:22

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$866	2,500	950	+1,550	No	-$258	07-09 16:49
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-08-28?	2	$780	500	500	+0	Yes	+$180	08-28 20:20
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	1	$500	714	0	+714	Yes	+$214	06-26 17:12
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs OG - Game 2 Winner	1	$300	423	0	+423	Team Yandex	+$123	10-24 13:55
fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	1	$300	404	0	+404	Spain	+$104	07-19 21:11
new stranger things episode released by january 31 294	2	$283	5,111	5,111	+0	No	-$117	01-14 10:16
dota2 xtreme pari 2026 03 28	8	$255	185	185	+0	Xtreme Gaming	+$115	03-28 22:53
dota2 bb4 ty 2026 03 14 game1	6	$254	207	207	+0	Team Yandex	+$45	03-14 15:17
cs2 furia fal2 2026 06 21	2	$240	357	357	+0	Team Falcons	-$60	06-21 15:15
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	3	$240	475	159	+315	No	+$38	10-26 22:12
cs2 furia fal2 2026 06 21 map handicap home 1pt5	2	$239	246	246	+0	Team Falcons	-$61	06-21 15:16
fifwc usa bel 2026 07 06 team to advance	2	$210	431	0	+431	Belgium	+$73	07-06 21:10
dota2 flc vg 2026 07 16	3	$205	314	77	+237	Vici Gaming	-$135	07-17 13:06
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	2	$202	179	179	+0	No	+$102	06-18 17:52
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	1	$200	20,000	0	+20,000	No	-$200	01-08 00:08
fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 btts	1	$200	328	0	+328	Yes	+$128	07-05 15:17
dota2 aur1 tundra 2026 03 26	2	$195	125	125	+0	Tundra Esports	+$55	03-26 21:53
dota2 bb4 ts8 2026 03 13	2	$173	117	117	+0	BetBoom Team	+$61	03-13 18:43
dota2 xtreme pari 2026 03 28 game2	6	$172	123	123	+0	Xtreme Gaming	+$72	03-28 21:20
dota2 pari mouz 2026 03 24 game2	2	$171	122	122	+0	MOUZ	+$71	03-24 16:34
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	2	$169	148	148	+0	Yes	+$89	06-21 20:56
dota2 ironwi liquid 2026 08 15	1	$166	302	0	+302	Team Liquid	+$136	08-15 08:47
dota2 flc vg 2026 07 16 game2	3	$164	254	254	+0	Vici Gaming	-$16	07-17 13:05
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	2	$158	668	668	-0	open	—	06-28 16:23
dota2 nemiga lfo 2026 10 17 game2	1	$150	169	0	+169	Nemiga Gaming	+$19	10-17 09:28
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Kalmychata - Game 2 Winner	1	$150	190	0	+190	Kalmychata	+$40	10-15 11:18
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	1	$150	300	0	+300	Yes	+$150	06-20 04:37
dota2 yes kalmy 2026 10 13 game2	1	$150	203	0	+203	Yellow Submarine	+$53	10-13 11:22
fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 btts	1	$150	300	0	+300	Yes	+$150	07-05 15:18
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs CyberHero - Game 2 Winner	1	$150	188	0	+188	Yellow Submarine	+$38	10-05 13:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 13:59:11	Dota 2: Team Spirit vs LEGION - Game 2 Winner	Team Spirit	BUY	185	81¢	$150	0x2f94dc…
10-28 21:20:01	Dota 2: GamerLegion vs LEGION - Game 1 Winner	GamerLegion	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0xdfa967…
10-28 21:17:50	Dota 2: GamerLegion vs LEGION - Game 1 Winner	GamerLegion	BUY	30	60¢	$18	0xf95cef…
10-28 20:40:50	Dota 2: Rottweilas Latam vs Level Up Academy (BO3) - Esports Pro Circuit Group B	Rottweilas Latam	BUY	62	80¢	$50	0xdd6666…
10-28 20:03:10	Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG (BO3) - PARI Universe Playoffs	OG	BUY	68	73¢	$50	0xaf543a…
10-28 15:21:50	Dota 2: angry birds vs Roshan Hunters - Game 1 Winner	angry birds	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x9b466d…
10-28 12:48:40	Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid (BO3) - PARI Universe Playoffs	PARIVISION	BUY	66	76¢	$50	0xae000c…
10-28 09:21:02	Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner	PARIVISION	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x488cdd…
10-28 09:06:43	Will Manchester United be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	Yes	BUY	1,066	5¢	$50	0x4252d2…
10-27 15:04:15	Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LEGION (BO1) - PARI Universe Group B	BetBoom Team	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x60d920…
10-27 14:08:05	Dota 2: No Hoodwink vs Mena Warriors - Game 2 Winner	No Hoodwink	BUY	24	76¢	$18	0xaefe3e…
10-27 13:36:09	Dota 2: Astra Invicta vs LEGION (BO1) - PARI Universe Group B	Astra Invicta	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x608a3e…
10-26 22:12:32	Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x27384d…
10-26 22:12:08	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	315	0¢	$1	0x7989a0…
10-26 22:09:05	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	152	7¢	$10	0xc634a5…
10-26 22:07:33	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	44	23¢	$10	0x9495ac…
10-26 20:05:42	Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LEGION - Game 1 Winner	BetBoom Team	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0x4880f9…
10-26 20:04:29	Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LEGION - Game 1 Winner	BetBoom Team	BUY	43	60¢	$26	0x69a9db…
10-26 19:34:09	Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PARI Universe Group B	Team Spirit	BUY	65	77¢	$50	0x19e453…
10-26 15:07:12	Dota 2: No Hoodwink vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - Esports Pro Circuit Group A	Zero Tenacity	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0x895710…
10-26 13:27:14	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner	Team Yandex	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0xae6694…
10-26 07:22:26	Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0x6da7ae…
10-26 07:22:08	Will Bitcoin dip to $77,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	217	46¢	$100	0x6737a2…
10-25 12:15:53	Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG (BO3) - PARI Universe Group A	Team Liquid	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0x6e1d75…
10-24 20:50:24	Dota 2: Astra Invicta vs LEGION (BO3) - PARI Universe Group B	LEGION	BUY	56	90¢	$50	0x78b6bb…
10-24 17:25:35	Dota 2: Astra Invicta vs LEGION - Game 1 Winner	Astra Invicta	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0xcf18d7…
10-24 14:57:20	Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner	Team Spirit	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0xa72e12…
10-24 14:17:32	Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0xae70cb…
10-24 13:55:03	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs OG - Game 2 Winner	Team Yandex	BUY	423	71¢	$300	0x196d0a…
10-24 08:11:11	Dota 2: 1win vs GamerLegion (BO3) - PARI Universe Group A	GamerLegion	BUY	241	41¢	$100	0xf63845…
10-23 21:11:57	Dota 2: Inner Circle vs HULIGANI (BO3) - EPL Masters Group A	Inner Circle	BUY	71	70¢	$50	0x060ed9…
10-23 20:32:11	Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	247	8¢	$20	0x6e117a…
10-23 17:07:17	Dota 2: PARIVISION vs LEGION (BO3) - PARI Universe Group B	LEGION	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xd7c03e…
10-23 11:28:21	Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner	Team Liquid	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0xede5f5…
10-23 11:08:42	Dota 2: salamit vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Nemiga Gaming	BUY	205	73¢	$150	0x846748…
10-23 08:30:02	Dota 2: 1win vs OG (BO3) - PARI Universe Group A	OG	BUY	108	37¢	$40	0xf45eaa…
10-22 18:29:02	Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Astra Invicta - Game 1 Winner	PARIVISION	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0xd30d32…
10-22 08:34:08	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner	Team Yandex	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0xc5a8cf…
10-21 15:23:48	Dota 2: Dawn Bulls vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - EPL Masters Group B	Zero Tenacity	BUY	62	81¢	$50	0x67a5f9…
10-21 12:49:09	Dota 2: Dawn Bulls vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner	Dawn Bulls	BUY	45	60¢	$27	0xb24d09…
10-21 12:48:21	Dota 2: Dawn Bulls vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner	Dawn Bulls	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xb8a1d3…
10-20 18:39:48	Dota 2: TheBot$ vs Dawn Bulls - Game 1 Winner	Dawn Bulls	BUY	35	60¢	$21	0x1ac3ce…
10-20 18:39:47	Dota 2: TheBot$ vs Dawn Bulls - Game 1 Winner	Dawn Bulls	BUY	4	60¢	$2	0x97f7aa…
10-20 18:39:47	Dota 2: TheBot$ vs Dawn Bulls - Game 1 Winner	Dawn Bulls	BUY	4	60¢	$2	0x5790ca…
10-20 18:39:47	Dota 2: TheBot$ vs Dawn Bulls - Game 1 Winner	Dawn Bulls	BUY	2	60¢	$2	0x2cd709…
10-20 18:39:47	Dota 2: TheBot$ vs Dawn Bulls - Game 1 Winner	Dawn Bulls	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x05b62c…
10-19 15:40:09	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-10-19?	Yes	BUY	156	64¢	$100	0x67d369…
10-19 06:57:14	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	214	70¢	$150	0xd45499…
10-18 14:32:51	Dota 2: CyberHero vs Team Synapse (BO3) - EPL Masters Group B	CyberHero	BUY	68	74¢	$50	0x986d1c…
10-17 22:32:15	Dota 2: CyberHero vs Inner Circle (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group A	Inner Circle	BUY	67	75¢	$50	0x12f12a…
10-17 19:04:45	Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Playoffs	BetBoom Team	BUY	44	23¢	$10	0x17c818…
10-17 09:56:29	dota2 tt2 tr7 2026 10 17	Team Tidebound	BUY	67	75¢	$50	0x861479…
10-17 09:28:30	dota2 nemiga lfo 2026 10 17 game2	Nemiga Gaming	BUY	169	89¢	$150	0x71b62e…
10-16 17:17:59	dota2 synaps dawnbu 2026 10 16	Dawn Bulls	BUY	62	80¢	$50	0x0128eb…
10-16 16:09:06	dota2 synaps dawnbu 2026 10 16 game2	Team Synapse	BUY	48	78¢	$37	0xb64e91…
10-16 12:40:21	dota2 xe xctn 2026 10 16 game1	Xipto Esports	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x902832…
10-16 07:46:27	Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs Resp Gaming - Game 1 Winner	Team Tidebound	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x4ea23f…
10-16 07:30:16	dota2 ch1 z10 2026 10 16 game1	CyberHero	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x03f7b9…
10-16 07:18:12	dota2 ch1 z10 2026 10 16 game1	CyberHero	BUY	45	60¢	$27	0x9ab20c…
10-15 22:38:51	Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during his Midterm Rally in Georgia?	Yes	BUY	102	4¢	$4	0xf7c927…
10-15 22:36:18	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on day 1?	Yes	BUY	41	12¢	$5	0xa75147…
10-15 20:03:40	dota2 lynx legion1 2026 10 15 game2	LEGION	BUY	176	85¢	$150	0x6b7d25…
10-15 18:24:49	dota2 lynx legion1 2026 10 15 game1	LEGION	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0xba1afe…
10-15 13:28:38	dota2 lynx dawnbu 2026 10 15	Team Lynx	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0xa8a093…
10-15 11:18:34	Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Kalmychata - Game 2 Winner	Kalmychata	BUY	190	79¢	$150	0x5a09b4…
10-15 07:48:25	dota2 spirit1 salami 2026 10 15 game1	salamit	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0xb02308…
10-15 07:48:23	dota2 spirit1 salami 2026 10 15 game1	salamit	BUY	33	60¢	$20	0x7d128e…
10-15 05:13:01	dota2 amaru playti 2026 10 14	Amaru Gaming	BUY	63	80¢	$50	0x1cf8ca…
10-14 22:55:43	dota2 z10 menawa 2026 10 14	Mena Warriors	BUY	57	88¢	$49	0x2861a0…
10-14 20:48:28	dota2 kalmy huliga 2026 10 14	Kalmychata	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0x9ce9ba…
10-14 18:07:10	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	97	31¢	$30	0xea3ad2…
10-14 18:06:37	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-10-14?	No	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0xd23fb1…
10-14 17:19:28	dota2 yes pr1 2026 10 14 game1	Yellow Submarine	BUY	46	60¢	$28	0x5963a9…
10-14 17:19:16	dota2 yes pr1 2026 10 14 game1	Yellow Submarine	BUY	4	60¢	$2	0x608198…
10-14 12:35:29	dota2 thewar shadow 2026 10 14	Shadow Dance	BUY	60	84¢	$50	0x5d0e77…
10-14 10:47:31	dota2 clo zenith 2026 10 14	Cloud Rising	BUY	67	75¢	$50	0x160681…
10-13 20:53:16	dota2 pr1 ch1 2026 10 13	Power Rangers	BUY	63	79¢	$50	0x649ffb…
10-13 14:19:32	Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)	Arsenal FC	BUY	83	60¢	$50	0x1ad480…
10-13 11:22:41	dota2 yes kalmy 2026 10 13 game2	Yellow Submarine	BUY	203	74¢	$150	0x437351…
10-13 09:55:56	dota2 lynx z10 2026 10 13	Zero Tenacity	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0x90d36a…
10-13 08:27:43	dota2 clo cloudd 2026 10 13 game1	Cloud Rising	BUY	43	60¢	$26	0x51f81d…
10-13 05:00:14	dota2 yb1 zenith 2026 10 13 game1	Yakult Brothers	BUY	11	60¢	$6	0x36e1e2…
10-13 04:59:53	dota2 yb1 zenith 2026 10 13 game1	Yakult Brothers	BUY	39	60¢	$24	0x425ccc…
10-12 17:13:15	Dota 2: Mena Warriors vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winner	Team Lynx	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x7fb8ec…
10-12 07:26:25	Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner	Yellow Submarine	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x4614f5…
10-11 14:25:03	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner	Team Yandex	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x0e34c8…
10-11 12:06:34	Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs	Team Spirit	BUY	63	79¢	$50	0xd0887d…
10-11 09:37:48	Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner	PARIVISION	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x1f18ac…
10-11 00:13:33	Dota 2: Skyreavers vs Rottweilas Latam (BO3) - DreamLeague South America Open Qualifier 1 Playoffs	Rottweilas Latam	BUY	10	76¢	$8	0xf28c5a…
10-10 14:30:55	Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner	PARIVISION	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0xdf8bf9…
10-10 14:30:52	Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner	PARIVISION	BUY	0	60¢	$0	0xc9fe18…
10-09 14:37:00	Dota 2: 1win vs PARIVISION - Game 1 Winner	PARIVISION	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x22f64b…
10-09 09:08:19	Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner	Team Spirit	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0xcdabb3…
10-08 20:52:23	dota2 pari ty 2026 10 08	Team Yandex	BUY	62	81¢	$50	0x13fda7…
10-08 16:44:45	Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner	PARIVISION	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0xf5e53c…
10-08 09:44:15	Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner	Team Yandex	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x083ec6…
10-07 20:21:31	Dota 2: CyberHero vs Blasterbl - Game 2 Winner	Blasterbl	BUY	59	71¢	$42	0x663cfa…
10-07 13:23:23	Dota 2: MOUZ vs CyberHero - Game 1 Winner	MOUZ	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x8d3446…
10-07 11:52:34	Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Blasterbl (BO3) - PARI Universe Closed Qualifier Playoffs	Blasterbl	BUY	67	75¢	$50	0x8308b8…
10-06 14:11:30	Dota 2: Blasterbl vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Blasterbl	BUY	178	84¢	$150	0xd0197f…