Realized P&L
+$20.2K
Unrealized P&L
-$11.9K
Hit rate
81.9%
Resolved
197
Trades
1,585
lifetime
Volume
$416.6K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$263
Open exposure
$21.2K
21 positions
First seen
2026-01-02
last 10-16 02:12
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 79 days
Categories
Politics
46% 73% +$528
Other
39% 69% +$8,606
Tech
15% 78% +$10,636
Sports
0% 75% +$395
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
11 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No -4,190 -$3,499 92¢ $-3876 -$377 07-24 08:39
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes +3,557 $2,834 84¢ $3.0K +$136 07-31 19:06
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? No +2,106 $1,789 91¢ $1.9K +$137 07-24 08:40
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? No -1,900 -$1,797 93¢ $-1775 +$22 06-13 17:10
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? No +14,459 $8,942 12¢ $1.7K -$7,279 10-05 10:09
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes -1,604 -$828 92¢ $-1468 -$640 10-11 03:53
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes +13,133 $5,615 11¢ $1.4K -$4,170 10-16 02:12
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No -1,111 -$1,033 98¢ $-1089 -$56 05-24 21:40
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes +1,220 $1,000 87¢ $1.1K +$61 10-06 00:23
5kt meteor strike in 2026? No -914 -$605 83¢ $-759 -$154 05-13 19:45
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? No -600 -$493 96¢ $-576 -$83 05-13 19:45
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes +806 $500 68¢ $552 +$52 10-06 00:07
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes +641 $500 76¢ $490 -$10 10-06 00:28
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes +500 $234 88¢ $442 +$208 07-27 21:44
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes -1,625 -$585 26¢ $-431 +$154 06-14 03:43
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes +500 $340 81¢ $405 +$65 05-10 20:17
US military draft authorized in 2026? No +222 $204 96¢ $213 +$9 05-23 14:49
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026? Yes -444 -$174 2¢ $-10 +$164 07-26 22:24
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? Yes +1,231 $50 0¢ $3 -$47 05-04 21:09
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? Yes -1,214 $20 0¢ $-2 -$22 06-19 21:23
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No +0 $105 34¢ $0 -$105 05-25 08:46