Doting-Plough — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

481

lifetime

Volume

$835

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-27

last 07-07 20:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

47% 100% +$0

Politics

45% 100% +$0

Crypto

6% — —

Sports

3% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

49 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	72	$141	77	64	+12	open	—	02-03 18:12
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	14	$56	34	23	+11	open	—	05-01 00:01
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	14	$41	32	11	+21	open	—	06-02 15:56
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	14	$33	19	15	+4	open	—	04-10 08:07
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	31	$32	22	10	+12	open	—	03-18 18:00
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	11	$32	16	15	+1	open	—	01-28 18:21
us anti cartel ground operation in mexico by january 31	28	$29	15	14	+1	open	—	02-03 22:38
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	12	$29	29	0	+29	open	—	04-08 03:17
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	26	$25	15	10	+4	open	—	03-03 05:22
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	6	$23	20	3	+17	Yes	+$0	05-09 19:26
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	21	$18	9	9	+0	open	—	01-28 00:37
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	13	$17	12	5	+7	open	—	05-01 00:07
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	10	$14	7	6	+1	open	—	04-28 06:23
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	9	$13	13	1	+13	open	—	03-31 03:26
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	9	$13	11	2	+9	open	—	06-17 18:59
fed increases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	8	$12	6	6	+0	open	—	01-28 16:36
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	5	$12	12	0	+12	open	—	07-07 20:24
us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	5	$12	12	0	+12	open	—	06-16 11:26
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	7	$12	12	0	+12	open	—	03-03 06:18
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	9	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	04-26 18:07
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	5	$11	11	0	+11	open	—	04-01 22:06
will iran strike israel on march 6	5	$11	11	0	+11	open	—	03-11 10:17
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	4	$11	8	3	+5	open	—	04-20 16:56
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	5	$11	11	0	+11	open	—	05-29 05:41
us x iran meeting by february 6 2026	5	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	02-08 08:20
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	2	$10	10	0	+10	Yes	+$0	05-09 18:59
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	3	$10	10	0	+10	Yes	+$0	05-03 11:49
will iran strike israel on march 4	5	$9	9	0	+9	open	—	03-06 22:22
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	4	$9	9	0	+9	open	—	06-17 18:50
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	6	$9	9	0	+9	open	—	05-21 08:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-07 20:24:29	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xeb0ba9…
07-07 20:14:38	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc86910…
07-07 20:13:16	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x2faebd…
07-07 19:45:04	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd46582…
07-07 19:41:55	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xf13690…
06-30 20:10:55	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xf14cd4…
06-28 22:02:11	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xc38fc9…
06-26 23:18:08	Solana all time high by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xe0d9fb…
06-26 23:17:58	Solana all time high by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xb40156…
06-26 23:08:47	Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd28d46…
06-17 18:59:25	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x9dbe5c…
06-17 18:59:01	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xd82224…
06-17 18:57:38	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0xac010e…
06-17 18:50:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x57ac14…
06-17 18:49:53	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xa76f63…
06-17 18:36:37	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xd8848d…
06-17 17:54:41	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x95db2b…
06-17 17:53:17	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa7be8f…
06-17 15:19:28	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x0527cc…
06-17 07:24:10	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa068c6…
06-17 07:23:38	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xaa3fab…
06-17 06:49:38	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x22cef8…
06-17 06:28:07	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf1ad97…
06-17 02:18:07	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xced1db…
06-17 00:28:01	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x4b45e7…
06-17 00:18:38	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x04e58c…
06-16 22:10:53	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa01d93…
06-16 14:50:01	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	BUY	2	70¢	$2	0x4128cf…
06-16 11:26:21	us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x3e595a…
06-16 08:55:40	us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xdb668a…
06-16 07:52:51	us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xb7b24e…
06-16 07:04:51	us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x266420…
06-15 18:46:12	us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x247a5a…
06-15 14:11:48	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x8212ac…
06-15 14:09:52	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xd378cd…
06-15 06:04:07	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x1d6446…
06-13 14:57:57	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x440dd3…
06-11 19:36:28	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x6c7e0d…
06-11 18:13:21	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x54576c…
06-11 18:11:00	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xba25df…
06-11 17:33:04	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x25cc86…
06-08 07:53:22	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1a2223…
06-08 06:48:48	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x6c0011…
06-08 05:30:18	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc9d0b0…
06-08 00:57:27	iran closes its airspace by june 8	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x1bab3c…
06-06 06:13:01	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xab4b49…
06-06 06:11:03	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x6a1f64…
06-04 14:42:57	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x16be07…
06-04 14:20:16	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	92¢	$0	0xd3ddfc…
06-04 03:47:19	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x87ae5a…
06-03 09:24:23	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xaa1a1d…
06-02 15:56:35	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x5cc991…
06-02 14:55:09	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0xa25593…
06-02 14:23:41	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x50fb7b…
06-02 12:51:43	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x741086…
06-02 12:51:12	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x0c3d40…
06-02 12:37:12	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xecad9e…
06-02 10:27:52	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x580eb8…
06-02 10:27:28	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x1af42c…
06-02 02:04:38	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xabdc92…
06-02 02:04:17	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xd5b062…
06-02 02:03:14	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5ae441…
06-02 02:02:40	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9990e1…
06-02 02:02:14	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xcbd301…
06-01 16:23:17	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	43¢	$1	0x701717…
05-30 05:25:32	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8d60d0…
05-29 05:41:06	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb34911…
05-29 05:18:57	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x394846…
05-29 02:36:37	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc43ef1…
05-29 02:13:47	Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x51b5f1…
05-28 20:05:54	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x0d6b9c…
05-28 06:32:26	Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x83cf59…
05-28 05:19:26	Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026?	No	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x5ebfec…
05-27 21:08:00	Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x343cf4…
05-27 11:37:36	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x6c8d27…
05-25 21:35:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xc32ea6…
05-24 19:19:58	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x943d3e…
05-24 19:19:35	Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x504e96…
05-22 22:23:25	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x037cb2…
05-22 22:12:59	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xed6489…
05-22 17:04:33	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x9d05f4…
05-22 15:38:27	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xbae7b7…
05-21 19:06:02	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xe34feb…
05-21 08:30:44	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x61d09d…
05-21 07:34:45	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xdbfb09…
05-21 07:24:19	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xc12fb2…
05-21 03:13:57	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x969f0c…
05-21 03:13:24	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x85628d…
05-20 17:13:09	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa86722…
05-20 14:19:22	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xaaaec5…
05-19 07:02:40	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x634111…
05-19 06:33:48	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x4393c8…
05-19 02:20:11	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x0a36f8…
05-19 02:16:38	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0xe3b0ad…
05-19 02:02:10	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x13cf20…
05-19 02:01:00	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x43e375…
05-18 20:58:08	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x44df89…
05-18 00:11:36	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xb01981…
05-17 23:50:24	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x341ea0…
05-16 05:30:08	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x2bfd8e…