Detailed-Mapping — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$13

Unrealized P&L

+$8

Hit rate

10.3%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$296

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$13

1 position

First seen

2026-05-11

last 06-02 15:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

55% 20% $-13

Other

29% — —

Politics

14% — —

Tech

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes		+19	$5	66¢	$13	+$8	06-02 11:28

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	3	$62	93	56	+38	open	—	05-13 15:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	1	$25	2,500	0	+2,500	Up	$-25	05-12 14:43
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$15	536	0	+536	open	—	05-17 02:14
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 17?	1	$15	100	0	+100	open	—	05-17 02:10
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	1	$10	42	0	+42	open	—	05-15 10:51
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22?	1	$10	48	0	+48	open	—	05-15 23:25
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$10	45	0	+45	open	—	05-13 15:17
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	2	$10	28	0	+28	open	—	05-15 11:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	3	$9	61	0	+61	Down	$-9	05-12 14:51
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15?	1	$8	41	0	+41	open	—	05-15 10:49
Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$6	6,000	0	+6,000	open	—	05-15 11:02
Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$6	6,000	0	+6,000	open	—	05-15 10:46
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$6	57	0	+57	open	—	05-13 15:17
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev	1	$5	54	0	+54	open	—	05-15 22:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	1	$5	13	0	+13	open	—	05-15 11:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	1	$5	500	0	+500	Up	$-5	05-11 19:09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	1	$5	135	0	+135	open	—	06-02 15:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	1	$5	250	0	+250	open	—	05-15 10:52
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 17?	1	$5	629	0	+629	open	—	05-16 12:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	1	$5	500	0	+500	Down	$-5	05-11 19:04
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 16?	1	$5	43	0	+43	open	—	05-15 22:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	1	$5	36	0	+36	Down	+$31	05-12 14:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	1	$5	19	0	+19	open	—	05-17 19:11
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 19?	1	$5	209	0	+209	open	—	05-15 23:43
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	1	$5	17	0	+17	open	—	05-15 11:43
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	1	$5	227	0	+227	open	—	05-17 20:38
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 17?	1	$5	172	0	+172	open	—	05-17 02:09
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	1	$5	19	0	+19	open	—	06-02 11:28
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?	1	$5	68	0	+68	open	—	05-17 02:13
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 19?	1	$5	42	0	+42	open	—	05-15 23:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-02 15:05:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	135	4¢	$5	0x3a3617…
06-02 11:28:50	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x2cd092…
05-18 00:04:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	39	5¢	$2	0xca615f…
05-17 20:38:26	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	227	2¢	$5	0x2a38fe…
05-17 19:11:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x6b6b75…
05-17 02:14:49	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	536	3¢	$15	0xdbc74b…
05-17 02:13:32	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?	Yes	BUY	68	7¢	$5	0x011f5a…
05-17 02:10:30	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 17?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x3373bc…
05-17 02:09:13	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 17?	No	BUY	172	3¢	$5	0xdeeabd…
05-16 12:12:36	Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 17?	No	BUY	629	1¢	$5	0x2d3da4…
05-15 23:43:41	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 19?	Yes	BUY	209	2¢	$5	0x4eef71…
05-15 23:34:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21?	No	BUY	74	7¢	$5	0xb64c7a…
05-15 23:25:07	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22?	No	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0xf2ffa2…
05-15 23:21:19	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 19?	Yes	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x0d02ef…
05-15 23:20:21	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17?	No	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x7e1f4d…
05-15 22:58:46	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 16?	No	BUY	128	1¢	$1	0xb70df2…
05-15 22:58:29	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 16?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xd757ff…
05-15 22:58:13	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 16?	No	BUY	43	12¢	$5	0x938d4f…
05-15 22:53:44	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev	Daniil Medvedev	BUY	54	9¢	$5	0xe7aa17…
05-15 11:46:27	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	15	31¢	$4	0x517653…
05-15 11:43:15	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xb75e6e…
05-15 11:31:57	Set 1 Winner: Rinderknech vs Damm	Rinderknech	BUY	525	0¢	$1	0xfb5760…
05-15 11:31:57	Set 1 Winner: Rinderknech vs Damm	Rinderknech	BUY	475	0¢	$0	0x45e5fa…
05-15 11:31:40	Bordeaux: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm	Arthur Rinderknech	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x46e562…
05-15 11:27:05	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0xbbd28b…
05-15 11:26:00	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x718dab…
05-15 11:03:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0x0786a9…
05-15 11:02:25	Will Trump say "North Korea" or "Kim Jong Un" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	6,000	0¢	$6	0xb07e00…
05-15 11:01:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x3b96a6…
05-15 10:52:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0xe686e9…
05-15 10:51:06	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0xd98b19…
05-15 10:49:22	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15?	No	BUY	41	20¢	$8	0xe4af25…
05-15 10:48:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 15?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x110ee5…
05-15 10:46:45	Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	6,000	0¢	$6	0x24c657…
05-13 15:17:56	Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	57	10¢	$6	0xada478…
05-13 15:17:09	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x3c9699…
05-13 15:16:06	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	Yes	BUY	38	40¢	$15	0x00f331…
05-13 15:14:09	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	SELL	56	58¢	$32	0x4c33b5…
05-12 14:51:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	33	5¢	$2	0x78cf47…
05-12 14:49:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0x297cee…
05-12 14:46:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x6b1efd…
05-12 14:43:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2,500	1¢	$25	0x342cae…
05-12 14:23:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x5e6275…
05-11 19:09:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x0df05d…
05-11 19:04:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x319dc0…
05-11 18:56:37	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	BUY	56	27¢	$15	0x90ed51…