Hard-To-Find-Waterbed-Forecast — Polymarket

Realized P&L (24h)

-$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

25.0%

Resolved (24h)

Trades (24h)

30 lifetime

Volume (24h)

$11

$30 lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-06

last 05-10 17:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 48% $-4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	1	$1	2	+2	Down	$-1	05-09 23:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	1	$1	2	+2	open	—	05-10 15:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	1	$1	2	+2	Down	+$1	05-06 13:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	1	$1	2	+2	open	—	05-10 11:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	1	$1	2	+2	Up	+$1	05-06 15:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	1	$1	2	+2	Up	+$1	05-06 14:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	1	$1	2	+2	Down	$-1	05-10 00:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	1	$1	2	+2	Up	$-1	05-06 14:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	1	$1	2	+2	open	—	05-10 16:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	1	$1	2	+2	Up	$-1	05-07 20:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	1	$1	2	+2	open	—	05-10 13:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	1	$1	2	+2	Down	$-1	05-06 18:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	1	$1	2	+2	open	—	05-10 14:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	1	$1	2	+2	Down	+$1	05-06 16:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	1	$1	2	+2	Up	+$1	05-06 15:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	1	$1	2	+2	Down	$-1	05-10 03:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	1	$1	2	+2	Down	$-1	05-06 18:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	1	$1	2	+2	Up	+$1	05-10 04:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	1	$1	2	+2	Up	$-1	05-08 06:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	1	$1	2	+2	Up	+$1	05-08 08:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	1	$1	2	+2	Up	$-1	05-08 07:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	1	$1	2	+2	open	—	05-10 17:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	1	$1	2	+2	Up	$-1	05-09 03:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	1	$1	2	+2	Up	+$1	05-06 12:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	1	$1	2	+2	Down	$-1	05-09 10:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	1	$1	2	+2	Down	+$1	05-08 07:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	1	$1	2	+2	Down	+$1	05-06 18:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	1	$1	2	+2	Up	+$1	05-08 08:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	1	$1	2	+2	Down	$-1	05-09 18:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	1	$1	2	+2	open	—	05-10 15:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-10 17:20:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x133cb9…
05-10 16:45:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x776a90…
05-10 15:31:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x8717da…
05-10 15:15:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xefcce0…
05-10 14:56:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x74592f…
05-10 13:41:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xd9d926…
05-10 11:01:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x8398c9…
05-10 04:17:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xb01bac…
05-10 03:40:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xd0ecc9…
05-10 00:36:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x189184…
05-09 23:01:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xe48641…
05-09 18:30:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xc4f6af…
05-09 10:40:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xc29f68…
05-09 03:41:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x2cfb57…
05-08 08:50:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x100605…
05-08 08:15:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xb585b5…
05-08 07:25:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x42f825…
05-08 07:05:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xa97894…
05-08 06:55:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x8e85b1…
05-07 20:46:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x723dd7…
05-06 18:35:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x14b994…
05-06 18:30:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0xf0376c…
05-06 18:25:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x9b564e…
05-06 16:20:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x81e80f…
05-06 15:40:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x59b005…
05-06 15:00:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x002c59…
05-06 14:40:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x0f1cd9…
05-06 14:20:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xec8249…
05-06 13:20:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x397a1e…
05-06 12:20:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x03a62f…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0xe907…cff6	30	$12.4K	466	05-10 17:21
Slight-Goodnight 0x6088…f361	30	$2.00K	135	05-10 17:20
Rash-Alternative 0xf353…6685	29	$1.73K	129	05-10 17:20
Babyish-Cribbage 0x2a6c…0b42	29	$862	214	05-10 17:20
Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30	28	$12.0K	331	05-10 17:20
Novel-Morbid 0x4766…5a03	28	$2.52K	233	05-10 17:20
Good-Natured-Angora 0x6748…ee08	28	$799	140	05-10 16:45
Sentimental-Differential 0x510a…d77f	27	$1.10K	198	05-10 16:45