Slim-Duckling — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$176

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

67.2%

Resolved (90d)

151

Trades (90d)

271

4,875 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$2.35K

$30.4K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-22

last 10-26 13:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 121 days

Categories

Crypto

52% 76% -$184

Other

42% 88% -$370

Tech

4% 59% +$68

Sports

2% 0% -$461

Politics

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 34 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5	$629	1,329	1,329	+0	No	-$461	07-19 21:43
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	11	$325	302	302	+0	Yes	+$3	09-29 19:46
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026?	6	$270	170	170	+0	Yes	+$61	09-28 17:58
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 30?	6	$238	154	154	+0	Yes	+$20	04-30 22:52
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 27°C or below on April 28?	8	$222	139	139	+0	Yes	+$36	04-28 21:21
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 6?	4	$221	116	116	+0	Yes	+$10	05-07 02:37
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on April 25?	2	$212	106	106	+0	No	+$0	04-25 16:15
highest temperature in miami on april 23 2026 80 81f	8	$199	220	214	+6	No	-$5	04-23 19:23
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 29?	3	$175	88	88	+0	No	+$1	05-29 22:28
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on May 29?	3	$167	85	85	+0	Yes	+$3	05-29 22:24
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 24?	10	$164	91	91	-0	Yes	-$1	05-24 16:18
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?	3	$150	261	0	+261	No	-$150	07-10 12:22
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 25?	2	$140	70	70	+0	Yes	+$0	04-25 23:34
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	13	$134	129	114	+15	Yes	+$23	09-22 16:15
highest temperature in seattle on april 23 2026 57forbelow	2	$129	76	75	+1	Yes	+$18	04-24 01:35
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	2	$128	70	70	+0	Yes	-$3	09-28 18:12
highest temperature in nyc on april 23 2026 70 71f	4	$128	73	73	+1	Yes	+$4	04-23 23:20
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?	6	$127	181	181	+0	No	-$117	10-02 18:15
Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by September 23, 2026?	2	$116	61	61	+0	Yes	+$5	09-22 18:11
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	8	$109	755	755	+0	No	-$21	09-29 19:45
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 16?	7	$100	50	50	+0	Yes	+$1	05-17 01:27
highest temperature in miami on april 23 2026 78 79f	2	$92	56	55	+1	Yes	+$9	04-23 17:06
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31?	2	$89	91	0	+91	Yes	-$89	05-31 04:03
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on May 1?	5	$87	79	79	+0	Yes	+$69	05-01 23:45
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?	3	$87	94	94	+0	No	+$3	10-02 10:17
highest temperature in san francisco on april 24 2026 62 63f	1	$85	106	0	+106	Yes	+$21	04-24 21:00
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 21?	3	$85	46	46	+0	No	+$6	05-21 13:33
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 31?	4	$80	40	40	+0	No	+$0	05-31 13:11
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 3?	2	$80	40	40	+0	No	+$0	05-03 15:30
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 3?	2	$79	40	40	+0	No	+$1	05-03 15:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 13:15:47	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	42¢	$14	0x45e932…
10-26 13:05:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0xe09fee…
10-26 13:03:11	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	Yes	SELL	9	33¢	$3	0xe1218d…
10-26 13:02:30	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	SELL	3	85¢	$2	0x0c54b9…
10-15 16:15:08	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x78adb5…
10-15 16:13:26	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	12¢	$2	0xfdf2d2…
10-02 18:21:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	133	39¢	$52	0x537507…
10-02 18:19:30	Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Yes	SELL	33	22¢	$7	0xba3a11…
10-02 18:19:05	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0x345d4e…
10-02 18:18:42	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?	Yes	SELL	35	16¢	$6	0xdf1f68…
10-02 18:18:36	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	Yes	SELL	37	34¢	$13	0xa57094…
10-02 18:18:32	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Yes	SELL	33	56¢	$19	0x324269…
10-02 18:15:54	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	64	2¢	$1	0xb82eb9…
10-02 18:15:53	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	0¢	$0	0x7932b7…
10-02 18:15:50	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	181	3¢	$5	0x4601ea…
10-02 10:27:21	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	64	85¢	$55	0x7b2608…
10-02 10:25:50	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x529252…
10-02 10:24:57	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	9	41¢	$4	0x8fd5b6…
10-02 10:17:30	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	94	48¢	$45	0x0e5a5e…
10-02 10:17:20	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	66	31¢	$20	0x21cba4…
10-01 13:55:21	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	81¢	$16	0x147acb…
09-30 20:41:30	Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	98¢	$16	0xfa7c21…
09-29 20:13:17	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	68¢	$6	0x0caa3f…
09-29 20:12:06	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	21¢	$6	0x3d5215…
09-29 19:50:14	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	54	68¢	$36	0xda20cd…
09-29 19:49:08	will the next sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1500 by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x3607bf…
09-29 19:48:38	will the next sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1490 by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0x3bd6c7…
09-29 19:48:24	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	68¢	$40	0xa92c9b…
09-29 19:46:00	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	SELL	152	57¢	$87	0xf42428…
09-29 19:45:24	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	Yes	SELL	442	5¢	$23	0x17dd71…
09-29 09:39:38	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	BUY	13	73¢	$10	0x7e3f7c…
09-28 21:32:00	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	33	45¢	$15	0xc65872…
09-28 21:31:03	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	Yes	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0x514d16…
09-28 21:30:45	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x202993…
09-28 21:25:06	Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	28¢	$4	0x371a7d…
09-28 21:24:59	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	19¢	$3	0x8ccaba…
09-28 21:23:41	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	24	17¢	$4	0x650fbb…
09-28 21:23:14	Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	Yes	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0xa3e6c2…
09-28 21:22:26	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x098ce8…
09-28 21:22:17	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 5 and October 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x5804f6…
09-28 21:20:38	Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	33	24¢	$8	0x933d97…
09-28 18:28:14	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	15¢	$8	0x0ea9fc…
09-28 18:27:06	Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x0db88b…
09-28 18:24:21	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0xb62e66…
09-28 18:24:06	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	Yes	SELL	75	6¢	$4	0x3e7b84…
09-28 18:22:18	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	BUY	17	53¢	$9	0xd313d9…
09-28 18:21:47	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	Yes	SELL	40	7¢	$3	0x0879dc…
09-28 18:21:42	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	Yes	SELL	71	7¢	$5	0x882b26…
09-28 18:21:42	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0x776b83…
09-28 18:19:21	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	BUY	14	53¢	$8	0x523214…
09-28 18:19:06	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	Yes	SELL	106	7¢	$7	0x270bc6…
09-28 18:12:29	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	704	9¢	$60	0x2e8ab3…
09-28 18:12:14	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	Yes	SELL	70	90¢	$63	0x86f0d2…
09-28 18:08:47	will the next sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1500 by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	24	30¢	$7	0xc4afab…
09-28 18:08:30	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	74¢	$7	0xf69593…
09-28 18:06:35	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	Yes	BUY	70	94¢	$65	0x58df64…
09-28 18:05:15	will the next sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1490 by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	60	36¢	$22	0xd6f730…
09-28 18:03:50	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	59¢	$24	0x74f53c…
09-28 17:59:00	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	BUY	100	52¢	$52	0xa0bf19…
09-28 17:58:00	Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	168	97¢	$163	0x0db24f…
09-28 17:08:48	Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0x49c472…
09-28 12:37:35	Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	103	72¢	$74	0xfab16e…
09-28 12:37:15	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	SELL	150	51¢	$77	0x3b7eb3…
09-28 01:25:48	Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	54¢	$7	0xb2c595…
09-28 01:24:45	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in September?	Yes	SELL	8	93¢	$8	0x7d5fdb…
09-27 16:44:23	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xc026a1…
09-27 16:37:38	Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x458546…
09-27 16:33:08	Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	46¢	$19	0xa970b4…
09-27 08:55:44	Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	56¢	$4	0x5bbd38…
09-27 08:55:14	Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 28, 2026?	No	SELL	10	44¢	$4	0x432895…
09-26 18:55:42	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	BUY	82	50¢	$41	0xcc27a0…
09-26 13:52:26	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	BUY	46	55¢	$25	0x80fabd…
09-26 07:00:17	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x98b7cc…
09-26 06:57:21	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x697d60…
09-26 06:56:50	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0xcdb2a0…
09-26 06:56:33	Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	35¢	$4	0x72dfbb…
09-26 05:56:57	Will the next GPT Luna model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1430 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	14	6¢	$1	0xa9d304…
09-25 13:05:11	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in September?	Yes	BUY	8	74¢	$6	0x770c95…
09-25 13:03:53	Will Claude go down 8-10 times in September?	Yes	SELL	4	25¢	$1	0x7fed3b…
09-24 17:11:20	Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xf1d3f3…
09-24 01:33:49	Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 28, 2026?	No	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x56a16c…
09-23 10:40:44	Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	40¢	$1	0x0bf11b…
09-22 22:55:37	Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	76¢	$20	0x37340b…
09-22 22:49:44	will the next gpt luna model 5pt7 debut at a score of at least 1430 by june 30 2027	Yes	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x504fd0…
09-22 22:46:38	Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0xa4f0d4…
09-22 22:31:40	Will Claude go down 8-10 times in September?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x12ada1…
09-22 22:30:10	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in September?	Yes	SELL	205	0¢	$0	0xc57074…
09-22 22:27:07	Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xbdc4f7…
09-22 22:24:32	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in September?	Yes	BUY	205	0¢	$1	0x56edae…
09-22 18:11:33	Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by September 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	61	100¢	$61	0xae0299…
09-22 16:39:28	Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by September 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	61	91¢	$55	0x4943d3…
09-22 16:15:03	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	15	14¢	$2	0xb1645a…
09-22 16:04:12	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	96¢	$58	0x421139…
09-22 09:47:22	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	81¢	$3	0x5580f8…
09-22 09:43:28	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	9¢	$3	0x7e79cd…
09-21 16:40:26	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	65¢	$22	0xc01a04…
09-21 16:36:21	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	67¢	$15	0x22538d…
09-21 15:57:59	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	54	39¢	$21	0x924cc9…
09-21 15:57:35	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 21, 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	21¢	$8	0x3550a5…
09-21 15:36:43	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xcc0ace…