Far-Nurture — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$92

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

42.8%

Resolved

Trades

126

lifetime

Volume

$33.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$262

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-06

last 08-19 22:22

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

51% 100% +$0

Other

49% — —

Crypto

0% 50% $-93

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	10	$7.2K	5,700	3,200	+2,500	open	—	08-19 22:22
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	10	$4.0K	17,544	17,544	+0	open	—	03-06 15:02
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	8	$3.1K	2,427	927	+1,500	open	—	08-17 08:17
us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	7	$2.8K	1,775	1,275	+500	open	—	08-07 00:01
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	8	$2.5K	1,368	1,368	+0	open	—	07-04 10:59
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	7	$1.4K	700	700	+0	open	—	08-10 20:41
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	3	$1.3K	941	941	+0	open	—	07-26 09:08
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	2	$1.3K	680	680	+0	open	—	05-29 15:45
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	3	$1.0K	830	630	+200	open	—	07-11 05:57
Iran leadership change by December 31?	4	$1.0K	600	600	+0	open	—	08-05 00:29
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	9	$994	502	502	+0	open	—	07-04 09:37
iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	2	$972	500	500	+0	open	—	08-10 20:41
iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	2	$605	634	0	+634	open	—	07-22 22:10
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	2	$577	390	390	+0	open	—	07-14 00:00
iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	2	$550	300	300	+0	open	—	07-13 23:59
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	2	$536	400	400	+0	open	—	08-05 00:32
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	2	$474	300	300	+0	open	—	07-26 09:08
iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	2	$451	309	309	+0	open	—	07-13 23:59
Iran Nuke before 2027?	3	$427	227	227	+0	open	—	08-05 00:29
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	2	$387	200	200	+0	open	—	06-29 17:26
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	2	$384	200	200	+0	open	—	07-03 00:00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	2	$261	300	300	+0	open	—	07-23 13:19
will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	2	$203	103	103	+0	open	—	07-03 00:01
fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 team to advance	2	$148	300	0	+300	open	—	06-29 17:32
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$100	10,000	0	+10,000	Yes	$-100	05-26 13:59
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	2	$50	28	28	+0	open	—	07-22 22:09
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	1	$50	50	0	+50	open	—	07-26 21:16
will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	2	$50	26	26	+0	open	—	07-22 22:09
us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	2	$40	20	20	+0	No	+$0	08-05 00:29
us obtains iranian enriched uranium by september 30 145	2	$22	12	12	+0	open	—	08-05 00:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-19 22:22:42	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	1,500	82¢	$1,230	0x2ed78c…
08-17 08:17:09	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	1,500	93¢	$1,395	0x32e243…
08-12 02:25:09	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	1,000	82¢	$820	0xb8e179…
08-10 20:41:13	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	700	98¢	$683	0x1cf767…
08-10 20:41:06	iran leadership change by august 31 669 893	No	SELL	500	97¢	$484	0x7631fc…
08-10 20:17:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1,400	83¢	$1,162	0x24c53d…
08-07 17:02:39	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	74	97¢	$72	0xb6b02a…
08-07 08:16:30	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	105	97¢	$102	0x6e78c0…
08-07 07:48:19	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x9b7066…
08-07 07:40:28	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	53	97¢	$52	0x24e886…
08-07 07:08:01	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xab6640…
08-07 05:42:25	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	458	97¢	$445	0x2da06b…
08-07 01:51:31	iran leadership change by august 31 669	No	BUY	500	98¢	$488	0xfe9286…
08-07 00:16:51	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	1,400	81¢	$1,134	0x9a72ae…
08-07 00:01:02	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	500	97¢	$486	0x267af6…
08-05 08:31:18	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	SELL	1,000	96¢	$960	0xb38069…
08-05 06:41:39	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	1,000	96¢	$956	0x8b73a7…
08-05 00:32:02	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	SELL	400	65¢	$260	0x489997…
08-05 00:30:33	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	12	90¢	$11	0x69917a…
08-05 00:30:23	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	927	93¢	$862	0xb7aafc…
08-05 00:30:12	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	SELL	12	96¢	$11	0xd5b0f1…
08-05 00:30:03	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	SELL	13	85¢	$11	0x503038…
08-05 00:29:56	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x22b00a…
08-05 00:29:45	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	227	95¢	$215	0x93113a…
08-05 00:29:30	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	600	85¢	$510	0xa1910e…
08-05 00:29:11	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x70b6af…
08-05 00:29:00	us obtains iranian enriched uranium by september 30 145	No	SELL	12	96¢	$11	0x3e1472…
08-05 00:28:36	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	SELL	12	97¢	$11	0x4458a6…
08-05 00:28:27	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	No	SELL	11	97¢	$11	0x2d73bf…
08-05 00:28:17	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x706125…
08-02 08:30:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	1,800	80¢	$1,440	0x5d7fa4…
07-28 17:06:10	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	53	91¢	$48	0x41d2b0…
07-28 17:05:44	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	247	91¢	$225	0x6778e5…
07-27 08:29:40	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	12	79¢	$9	0x8873e3…
07-27 08:29:06	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	288	79¢	$228	0xc92893…
07-26 21:20:45	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	No	BUY	11	96¢	$11	0x9d0d09…
07-26 21:20:37	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0xbf31bd…
07-26 21:20:28	putin out as president of russia by july 31 2026	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x529ae5…
07-26 21:18:33	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	12	88¢	$11	0xc9688c…
07-26 21:18:24	us obtains iranian enriched uranium by july 31 20260610164403871 511	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x6d162d…
07-26 21:18:15	us obtains iranian enriched uranium by september 30	No	BUY	12	93¢	$11	0x703be8…
07-26 21:17:57	us iran final nuclear deal by september 30 2026	No	BUY	13	84¢	$11	0xbb31df…
07-26 21:17:49	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	12	94¢	$11	0xb1f06e…
07-26 21:17:42	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	BUY	12	95¢	$11	0x8ab052…
07-26 21:17:33	us iran final nuclear deal by august 13 2026 20260621201255152	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x89f51e…
07-26 21:17:12	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xe68789…
07-26 21:16:52	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x46e67b…
07-26 09:08:48	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	300	83¢	$249	0x37d324…
07-26 09:08:39	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	SELL	941	71¢	$668	0x3df26c…
07-23 13:19:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	300	51¢	$153	0x9209b7…
07-22 22:10:18	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	52	95¢	$50	0x227d89…
07-22 22:09:58	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	SELL	26	96¢	$25	0x86eab2…
07-22 22:09:42	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	28	91¢	$25	0xe8aa83…
07-22 22:05:13	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	582	95¢	$556	0x3ed6b4…
07-18 10:36:28	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	200	79¢	$158	0xed085a…
07-17 16:02:18	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	600	76¢	$456	0x743748…
07-17 05:16:43	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	300	91¢	$273	0x2ebb85…
07-15 14:05:20	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	No	BUY	400	69¢	$276	0xb4e8b8…
07-14 00:00:35	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	SELL	390	71¢	$277	0xa11055…
07-13 23:59:58	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	SELL	309	65¢	$201	0xc9f4cd…
07-13 23:59:44	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	SELL	300	90¢	$269	0x8b304b…
07-12 01:10:58	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	309	81¢	$250	0xc1988c…
07-12 01:10:13	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	No	BUY	390	77¢	$300	0xdc1a3b…
07-11 05:57:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	92¢	$184	0x25c430…
07-11 01:35:05	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	75	83¢	$62	0x6d08ce…
07-11 01:35:05	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	325	83¢	$270	0x63c8da…
07-11 01:34:10	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	300	75¢	$225	0xb3a861…
07-11 01:23:41	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0xa63907…
07-11 01:23:16	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	400	85¢	$340	0x0885f3…
07-11 01:22:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	300	36¢	$108	0xd8d0ff…
07-11 01:22:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	183	63¢	$115	0xc86414…
07-11 01:21:43	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	300	94¢	$281	0x5aac42…
07-07 23:17:23	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	500	86¢	$430	0x4f3c06…
07-07 20:03:19	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	758	66¢	$500	0x789a4f…
07-07 18:22:22	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	200	93¢	$186	0x8673fe…
07-05 03:00:50	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0xc25029…
07-04 10:59:17	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	1,368	95¢	$1,299	0x5be62a…
07-04 10:15:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	630	78¢	$491	0xcf00eb…
07-04 09:57:16	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	28	90¢	$25	0xe9e54d…
07-04 09:56:37	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	BUY	27	94¢	$25	0x14901b…
07-04 09:56:16	will the iranian regime fall by september 30 20260629143335077	No	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0x4c4c80…
07-04 09:54:17	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	27	94¢	$25	0x1f324a…
07-04 09:37:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	502	100¢	$500	0x87cd1a…
07-04 09:37:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x42c4f3…
07-03 00:01:19	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	103	100¢	$103	0xda15d1…
07-03 00:00:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	SELL	200	99¢	$198	0x2a5183…
07-01 14:01:23	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	300	80¢	$240	0xf62734…
07-01 14:00:59	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	52	84¢	$44	0x656e89…
07-01 14:00:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	448	84¢	$376	0xc96bc8…
06-29 17:32:02	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 team to advance	Brazil	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0xc3621b…
06-29 17:31:47	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 team to advance	Brazil	BUY	200	49¢	$98	0x6a300d…
06-29 17:26:53	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	8	81¢	$6	0x69311d…
06-29 17:26:20	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	99¢	$199	0x7d3387…
06-29 17:26:08	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	SELL	263	76¢	$200	0xc04074…
06-28 18:01:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	230	87¢	$200	0xce4b17…
06-28 14:46:55	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0x161497…
06-28 07:00:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0xc78bff…
06-28 03:14:29	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	230	87¢	$200	0xe0a91e…
06-28 03:13:02	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	263	76¢	$200	0x3755bd…
06-28 03:07:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xe7a529…