Obvious-Warming — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

80.0%

Resolved

Trades

3,555

lifetime

Volume

$6.97K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-25

last 06-30 12:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

94% — —

Other

3% 100% +$1

Politics

3% 50% $-1

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 1469 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	1	$177	190	0	+190	open	—	05-30 18:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	7	$68	105	4	+101	open	—	05-30 20:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	6	$65	112	2	+110	open	—	05-30 19:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	7	$51	59	17	+42	open	—	05-30 14:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	12	$50	75	14	+60	open	—	05-30 19:29
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	15	$44	35	28	+7	open	—	05-30 17:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	5	$41	78	34	+44	open	—	05-30 15:54
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	5	$40	84	2	+82	open	—	05-30 14:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	4	$38	46	12	+34	open	—	05-30 18:44
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	4	$37	39	2	+37	open	—	05-30 14:43
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	5	$36	24	13	+11	open	—	05-30 15:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	16	$35	46	8	+38	open	—	05-30 15:38
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	5	$35	37	20	+17	open	—	05-30 14:56
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET	7	$33	26	26	+0	open	—	05-30 14:56
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?	19	$32	16	16	+0	open	—	05-31 17:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	7	$31	46	0	+46	open	—	05-30 18:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	6	$30	22	12	+11	open	—	05-30 15:54
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	11	$30	52	48	+4	open	—	05-27 14:25
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET	13	$29	24	16	+8	open	—	05-30 19:29
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	3	$29	37	0	+37	open	—	05-30 15:54
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	3	$28	41	0	+41	open	—	05-30 17:48
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	2	$28	32	0	+32	open	—	05-30 18:59
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	15	$28	14	14	+0	open	—	06-04 13:50
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	6	$28	29	13	+16	open	—	05-30 14:24
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	2	$27	29	0	+29	open	—	05-30 19:19
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	6	$27	33	0	+33	open	—	05-30 18:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	19	$27	28	9	+19	open	—	05-30 16:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	5	$26	34	0	+34	open	—	05-30 17:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	6	$26	36	0	+36	open	—	05-30 19:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	6	$26	41	0	+41	open	—	05-30 19:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 12:58:02	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xe02271…
06-30 12:57:52	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xbd9cd7…
06-30 12:57:47	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x8e75d5…
06-30 12:57:40	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x229839…
06-28 13:41:28	New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x95028d…
06-28 13:41:22	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x5f9324…
06-28 13:41:14	will xauusd reach 5100 in june 2026	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xfc595c…
06-28 13:41:07	will spacexs valuation hit high 4pt0t by june 30	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xbdb0de…
06-28 13:40:55	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x794f4a…
06-23 16:27:59	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf50432…
06-23 16:23:13	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x758d27…
06-23 16:18:49	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xe86e70…
06-21 13:43:31	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x90c45c…
06-21 13:42:25	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x834c4b…
06-21 13:39:19	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x250c5d…
06-21 13:38:50	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2c21ba…
06-19 12:55:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb511a1…
06-19 11:49:58	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x3a3fd6…
06-19 10:53:19	Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2e6ed1…
06-19 10:32:35	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xb77355…
06-19 09:54:53	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9cbe5f…
06-19 09:28:37	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x0e9239…
06-19 09:22:37	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xdb1012…
06-19 02:09:40	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1d5295…
06-19 01:15:53	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc005a1…
06-19 01:09:10	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x680068…
06-19 00:57:37	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3766ed…
06-19 00:36:02	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by june 15	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5197f3…
06-18 00:23:26	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x4d3e39…
06-18 00:22:49	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x903881…
06-18 00:20:43	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xeca274…
06-18 00:18:59	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x417d6b…
06-18 00:18:32	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf20dfc…
06-17 10:12:08	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8a6845…
06-17 10:12:05	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x38e7b4…
06-17 10:10:52	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd6dee5…
06-17 10:10:43	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x9ff8c9…
06-17 10:10:43	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2aef74…
06-17 09:54:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xf2904d…
06-17 09:54:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x99fdd5…
06-13 22:06:22	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xc3d9aa…
06-10 15:44:48	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x54d9e0…
06-10 15:11:43	Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x11d91f…
06-10 15:04:52	will spacexs valuation hit high 4pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x827ba3…
06-10 15:04:52	will spacexs valuation hit high 4pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x6b36a1…
06-07 00:18:19	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x191e78…
06-07 00:07:03	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x405605…
06-06 22:12:55	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xbf6b3f…
06-06 21:53:58	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8cd570…
06-06 01:08:04	ufc ari1 ket1 2026 06 06	Ketlen Souza	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xa9457b…
06-06 00:27:06	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xfbdac8…
06-06 00:17:55	New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xca237f…
06-05 14:58:58	ufc bre1 edm 2026 06 06	Edmen Shahbazyan	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x070f7d…
06-05 14:58:39	ufc ari1 ket1 2026 06 06	Ketlen Souza	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x474fb2…
06-05 14:56:52	ufc bru ed 2026 06 06	Édgar Cháirez	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xa7bee2…
06-05 14:55:03	ufc bre1 edm 2026 06 06	Edmen Shahbazyan	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x43384c…
06-05 11:01:03	Major CEX insolvent in 2026?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x0c3369…
06-04 22:46:01	Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x8bf8dd…
06-04 18:29:54	Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x827f22…
06-04 17:46:12	Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x3ff702…
06-04 17:16:13	Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xb12d78…
06-04 17:05:19	New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8b1fcd…
06-04 17:05:18	New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xfe5d64…
06-04 17:05:18	New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xb886b5…
06-04 16:27:15	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x39069b…
06-04 13:50:03	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xaaef77…
06-04 11:15:52	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x66ad66…
06-04 11:08:39	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xbc1dbe…
06-04 11:08:04	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xff1f1e…
06-04 11:05:28	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc4690d…
06-04 11:03:27	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x41bbef…
06-04 10:58:39	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf4cfe5…
06-04 10:55:15	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x530861…
06-04 10:55:13	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5b4e26…
06-04 10:53:49	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x4a1815…
06-04 10:52:13	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x285abb…
06-04 10:46:21	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x4c7b2f…
06-04 10:40:03	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x331a05…
06-04 10:32:21	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x578b05…
06-04 10:30:28	israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x594bba…
06-04 10:29:07	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x11643f…
06-04 10:00:03	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x3cf4ad…
06-04 09:56:40	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x66079a…
06-04 09:02:51	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x1d6a2d…
06-04 08:32:31	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x98022e…
06-04 08:32:22	Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0xd33282…
06-04 08:31:52	Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x418cc6…
06-04 08:31:36	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x314d29…
06-04 08:31:34	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xd007b2…
06-04 06:44:06	xrp updown 5m 1780555200	Up	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x64587c…
06-04 06:43:40	xrp updown 5m 1780555200	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xb5eccf…
06-04 06:43:24	eth updown 15m 1780554600	Up	SELL	1	50¢	$1	0x428216…
06-04 06:42:42	eth updown 15m 1780554600	Up	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xb3112a…
06-04 06:35:58	btc updown 5m 1780554900	Up	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x3fc14c…
06-04 06:35:52	sol updown 15m 1780554600	Down	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0x15bc07…
06-04 06:30:15	sol updown 15m 1780554600	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x4a1922…
06-04 04:18:46	xrp updown 5m 1780546500	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x1ff81b…
06-04 04:18:37	eth updown 5m 1780546500	Down	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x78361f…
06-04 04:16:13	eth updown 5m 1780546500	Down	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x0f9686…
06-04 01:28:06	btc updown 5m 1780536300	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x279e28…