Imperturbable-Outrun — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3.97K

Unrealized P&L

-$60

Hit rate

96.8%

Resolved

Trades

7,386

lifetime

Volume

$900.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$122

Open exposure

$260

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-23 11:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

87% 100% +$4,047

Other

9% 0% $-79

Tech

3% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

70 active days in 12wk • peak 274 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No		+500	$320	52¢	$260	$-60	07-21 20:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	320	$61.1K	110,525	118,393	-7,868	open	—	06-15 02:22
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	187	$39.3K	90,129	90,039	+90	open	—	05-31 22:32
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	169	$24.7K	15,993	15,993	+0	open	—	04-21 16:50
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	56	$23.1K	15,160	15,160	+0	open	—	05-19 19:44
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	64	$22.8K	14,554	14,554	+0	open	—	05-15 12:01
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	127	$19.1K	18,129	18,129	-0	open	—	06-19 21:02
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	131	$19.1K	17,009	13,708	+3,301	open	—	04-28 19:54
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	34	$16.0K	9,368	9,370	-2	No	+$2,084	05-06 12:05
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	92	$15.9K	17,707	16,227	+1,480	open	—	06-14 23:31
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	20	$14.3K	9,108	9,108	+0	open	—	04-08 01:09
will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	64	$13.8K	11,082	11,082	+0	open	—	06-17 21:11
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	41	$13.7K	31,630	26,481	+5,148	open	—	05-26 13:56
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	447	$13.6K	8,989	8,989	+0	open	—	04-23 00:32
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	31	$13.0K	9,023	9,023	+0	open	—	05-25 22:45
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	121	$12.9K	10,606	8,454	+2,152	open	—	04-21 18:17
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	36	$11.7K	11,514	4,300	+7,214	open	—	04-15 21:45
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	8	$11.3K	6,029	6,287	-258	open	—	05-16 15:57
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	48	$10.6K	5,595	6,158	-563	open	—	04-25 14:03
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	37	$10.5K	8,835	6,985	+1,850	open	—	02-27 21:17
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	64	$10.1K	10,835	10,835	+0	open	—	06-01 23:39
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	76	$9.7K	15,307	15,307	+0	open	—	06-14 15:30
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	13	$9.1K	7,280	7,290	-10	open	—	05-24 14:11
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	65	$8.9K	16,210	23,610	-7,400	open	—	05-29 16:43
will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	22	$8.8K	5,147	5,147	+0	open	—	06-09 17:04
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	76	$8.7K	10,129	10,129	+0	open	—	05-20 15:18
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	110	$8.7K	7,724	6,702	+1,023	open	—	04-16 15:37
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	90	$8.7K	13,777	13,777	+0	open	—	04-23 17:03
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	36	$8.5K	6,198	6,198	+0	open	—	03-01 23:23
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	105	$7.9K	17,870	17,870	+0	open	—	05-29 18:48
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	11	$7.7K	5,674	5,674	+0	open	—	06-19 09:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-23 14:12:06	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	BUY	1,100	31¢	$341	0x1a5104…
07-23 13:44:16	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	SELL	1,220	92¢	$1,122	0xd3f8d9…
07-23 11:39:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	3,623	1¢	$33	0x2301a4…
07-23 00:06:30	will there be houthi military action against saudi arabia by july 24 2026 20260714212508552	Yes	BUY	50	18¢	$9	0xf96808…
07-22 13:45:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	3,000	13¢	$390	0xc49327…
07-22 11:35:43	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	No	SELL	1,000	50¢	$502	0x03f563…
07-22 09:25:40	israel military action against greater beirut by july 31 20260708204650550	No	BUY	500	85¢	$425	0x0eace0…
07-22 09:21:54	israel military action against greater beirut by august 31 20260708214159403	No	BUY	1,000	59¢	$590	0xa3d869…
07-21 20:59:18	Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?	No	BUY	500	64¢	$320	0x53d4ec…
07-21 02:03:45	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	530	98¢	$519	0x0b0c6f…
07-21 01:35:13	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	43	98¢	$43	0x98a256…
07-20 23:18:51	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	SELL	401	98¢	$392	0x4e2b65…
07-20 19:13:45	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	No	BUY	862	54¢	$465	0xb69177…
07-20 18:59:49	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	No	BUY	11	54¢	$6	0x3a0ef1…
07-20 18:18:10	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	No	BUY	22	54¢	$12	0x5d61f0…
07-20 17:49:21	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	No	BUY	0	54¢	$0	0x2777bf…
07-20 17:49:19	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	No	BUY	0	54¢	$0	0x77fc92…
07-20 17:49:19	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	No	BUY	3	54¢	$2	0x254952…
07-20 17:49:18	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	No	BUY	17	54¢	$9	0xa6123d…
07-20 17:49:16	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	No	BUY	70	54¢	$38	0xf0bc37…
07-20 15:58:45	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	400	58¢	$232	0x197ddb…
07-20 15:57:49	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	950	56¢	$535	0xd99d75…
07-20 15:19:18	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,499	64¢	$959	0xc88965…
07-20 15:18:27	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	150	65¢	$98	0x3af015…
07-20 14:26:28	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	No	BUY	16	54¢	$9	0x92658b…
07-20 14:17:30	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	45	63¢	$28	0x3a7311…
07-20 14:16:00	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	63¢	$32	0xde4e90…
07-20 14:15:49	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	63¢	$32	0x5f8329…
07-20 14:15:27	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	237	63¢	$149	0x2c8c73…
07-20 14:15:22	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	95	63¢	$60	0xf66519…
07-20 14:15:21	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	24	63¢	$15	0xa1d426…
07-20 14:11:48	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	500	62¢	$310	0x6c4d8f…
07-20 14:10:15	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	180	67¢	$121	0x96e360…
07-20 14:10:10	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0xa12603…
07-20 14:08:39	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	146	72¢	$105	0x01e781…
07-20 14:08:37	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	33	72¢	$24	0x59ece3…
07-20 14:07:34	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	15	72¢	$11	0xdab802…
07-20 13:58:54	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	500	62¢	$310	0xd95085…
07-20 13:03:30	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	28¢	$140	0x7b2497…
07-20 12:50:34	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	11	45¢	$5	0x8eb83f…
07-20 12:49:52	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	SELL	89	45¢	$40	0xbe3f2c…
07-20 12:37:49	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	300	54¢	$162	0xb92a58…
07-20 12:36:25	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	240	52¢	$125	0xf68289…
07-20 12:35:10	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	52¢	$104	0x0832a7…
07-20 12:27:36	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	400	51¢	$204	0x74378b…
07-20 12:22:22	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	221	50¢	$111	0x650bb9…
07-20 12:22:12	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x215c21…
07-20 12:21:12	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	79	50¢	$39	0x0ef29e…
07-20 12:18:39	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	47	52¢	$24	0x6ab10c…
07-20 12:17:27	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	53	52¢	$27	0x06448c…
07-20 12:01:45	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	107	50¢	$53	0x74fdd9…
07-20 12:01:21	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	86	50¢	$43	0x37c48e…
07-20 12:00:51	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x2378b1…
07-20 11:46:40	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	150	36¢	$54	0x82ac08…
07-20 11:43:37	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	155	38¢	$59	0xee11c1…
07-20 11:43:28	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	140	37¢	$52	0xd81009…
07-20 11:22:30	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	23¢	$46	0x69e6cb…
07-20 11:20:28	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	20¢	$40	0x47f41e…
07-20 11:17:58	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	20¢	$100	0x9a7359…
07-20 10:58:58	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	444	19¢	$84	0xd38451…
07-20 10:58:09	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	400	21¢	$84	0x75ff56…
07-20 10:57:34	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x2b7930…
07-20 10:57:30	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	19¢	$10	0xd5924b…
07-20 10:55:27	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x3a7bdf…
07-20 10:55:27	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	333	29¢	$97	0x07dc33…
07-20 10:55:00	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	76	29¢	$22	0x22e6f6…
07-20 10:54:58	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	26	29¢	$7	0x4ca13b…
07-20 10:51:04	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	436	23¢	$100	0xdae0ec…
07-20 10:50:34	China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Yes	BUY	228	22¢	$50	0x42b67d…
07-20 09:35:16	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	700	23¢	$161	0x72eb63…
07-20 09:27:46	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	220	92¢	$202	0xabc56d…
07-19 16:24:49	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	840	90¢	$756	0x4c21ee…
07-19 16:11:31	iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	No	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0xc5fc66…
07-19 16:10:42	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x0ddfb5…
07-19 16:02:39	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x12adf7…
07-19 15:49:37	iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	No	BUY	70	4¢	$3	0xb8570b…
07-19 15:48:13	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0xff688b…
07-19 15:45:00	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	BUY	2,000	10¢	$200	0x1181d5…
07-19 15:42:22	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	1,000	96¢	$957	0xa1b721…
07-13 14:28:53	will the us announce a blockade on iran by august 31	No	SELL	500	0¢	$1	0x3ff88b…
07-13 14:28:43	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	SELL	2,148	1¢	$13	0xd3c8d3…
07-13 14:16:49	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	354	67¢	$237	0x421dd2…
07-13 12:35:13	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	360	69¢	$248	0x9a80e8…
07-13 12:30:20	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	121	67¢	$81	0x6072ce…
07-13 12:29:43	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	125	67¢	$84	0x9f23f5…
07-13 00:10:38	will the us announce a blockade on iran by august 31	No	BUY	480	51¢	$245	0x521d67…
07-12 23:57:11	will the us announce a blockade on iran by august 31	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x54e78e…
07-12 23:57:05	will the us announce a blockade on iran by august 31	No	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xd916a8…
07-12 23:21:31	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	13	65¢	$8	0x3642a5…
07-12 23:20:05	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	10	65¢	$7	0xf61553…
07-12 23:14:50	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	57	65¢	$37	0x087575…
07-12 23:04:26	will the us announce a blockade on iran by august 31	No	BUY	7	51¢	$4	0xebc8d7…
07-12 23:02:11	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	1	65¢	$1	0xdfd929…
07-12 23:01:40	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	106	65¢	$69	0x4be76b…
07-12 23:00:26	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	No	BUY	1,000	65¢	$650	0xfaed65…
07-12 21:53:11	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	1,900	2¢	$33	0xca3647…
07-11 23:28:08	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	4,306	0¢	$17	0xa25e24…
07-11 20:51:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	550	8¢	$44	0x69d291…
07-11 20:47:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	400	8¢	$32	0x977347…
07-11 20:45:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	3	8¢	$0	0xba4bb7…