Imperturbable-Outrun — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3.97K

Unrealized P&L

-$787

Hit rate

96.8%

Resolved

Trades

7,280

lifetime

Volume

$887.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$122

Open exposure

$2.09K

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-02 15:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

88% 100% +$4,047

Other

8% 0% $-79

Tech

3% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

82 active days in 12wk • peak 530 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No		-1,300	$-1,095	100¢	$-1297	$-202	06-17 12:43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes		+3,000	$1,380	26¢	$795	$-585	07-01 11:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	320	$61.1K	110,525	118,393	-7,868	open	—	06-15 02:22
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	187	$39.3K	90,129	90,039	+90	open	—	05-31 22:32
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	169	$24.7K	15,993	15,993	+0	open	—	04-21 16:50
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	56	$23.1K	15,160	15,160	+0	open	—	05-19 19:44
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	64	$22.8K	14,554	14,554	+0	open	—	05-15 12:01
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	127	$19.1K	18,129	18,129	-0	open	—	06-19 21:02
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	131	$19.1K	17,009	13,708	+3,301	open	—	04-28 19:54
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	34	$16.0K	9,368	9,370	-2	No	+$2,084	05-06 12:05
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	92	$15.9K	17,707	16,227	+1,480	open	—	06-14 23:31
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	20	$14.3K	9,108	9,108	+0	open	—	04-08 01:09
will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	64	$13.8K	11,082	11,082	+0	open	—	06-17 21:11
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	41	$13.7K	31,630	26,481	+5,148	open	—	05-26 13:56
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	447	$13.6K	8,989	8,989	+0	open	—	04-23 00:32
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	31	$13.0K	9,023	9,023	+0	open	—	05-25 22:45
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	121	$12.9K	10,606	8,454	+2,152	open	—	04-21 18:17
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	36	$11.7K	11,514	4,300	+7,214	open	—	04-15 21:45
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	8	$11.3K	6,029	6,287	-258	open	—	05-16 15:57
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	48	$10.6K	5,595	6,158	-563	open	—	04-25 14:03
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	37	$10.5K	8,835	6,985	+1,850	open	—	02-27 21:17
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	64	$10.1K	10,835	10,835	+0	open	—	06-01 23:39
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	76	$9.7K	15,307	15,307	+0	open	—	06-14 15:30
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	13	$9.1K	7,280	7,290	-10	open	—	05-24 14:11
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	65	$8.9K	16,210	23,610	-7,400	open	—	05-29 16:43
will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	22	$8.8K	5,147	5,147	+0	open	—	06-09 17:04
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	76	$8.7K	10,129	10,129	+0	open	—	05-20 15:18
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	110	$8.7K	7,724	6,702	+1,023	open	—	04-16 15:37
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	90	$8.7K	13,777	13,777	+0	open	—	04-23 17:03
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	36	$8.5K	6,198	6,198	+0	open	—	03-01 23:23
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	105	$7.9K	17,870	17,870	+0	open	—	05-29 18:48
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 19 2026 475	11	$7.7K	5,674	5,674	+0	open	—	06-19 09:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 15:01:02	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by july 31 20260624040209014	Yes	SELL	6	8¢	$0	0x047877…
07-02 13:40:44	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by july 31 20260624040209014	Yes	SELL	0	8¢	$0	0x9135df…
07-02 09:53:23	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by july 31 20260624040209014	Yes	SELL	56	8¢	$5	0x6fec1c…
07-01 12:01:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	874	14¢	$122	0xded97c…
07-01 12:00:50	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	100	14¢	$14	0xd59f7f…
07-01 11:55:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	500	30¢	$150	0xd391e0…
07-01 11:55:17	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	26	14¢	$4	0x22f026…
06-29 10:48:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	500	38¢	$190	0x88cbb1…
06-29 10:46:38	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	SELL	600	25¢	$150	0xb00545…
06-28 22:57:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	766	42¢	$322	0x2a13c8…
06-28 22:52:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	167	42¢	$70	0xbf2e60…
06-28 22:52:13	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	118	22¢	$26	0x3839e3…
06-28 22:50:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0x1c12c0…
06-28 22:44:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	862	42¢	$362	0xc904be…
06-28 22:39:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x8ee429…
06-28 22:38:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x456b80…
06-28 22:37:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x315cbf…
06-28 22:35:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	11	42¢	$5	0xa0e10f…
06-28 22:35:10	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	931	22¢	$205	0x4e7dbd…
06-28 22:31:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xa2574b…
06-28 22:30:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	109	42¢	$46	0xfcb2e3…
06-28 22:24:53	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	951	22¢	$209	0xc35be0…
06-28 22:24:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x34e046…
06-28 22:22:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	0	42¢	$0	0xdcc332…
06-28 22:21:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	16	42¢	$7	0xd7d3f7…
06-28 22:21:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	0	42¢	$0	0x69a15f…
06-28 22:20:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	9	42¢	$4	0xa26dfd…
06-28 22:19:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	25	42¢	$10	0x4509db…
06-28 14:48:47	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	SELL	400	26¢	$104	0x38e209…
06-27 21:27:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	1,306	22¢	$281	0xa270a4…
06-27 09:14:49	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,516	0¢	$4	0x9f1f32…
06-27 09:10:11	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	1,613	31¢	$500	0x132537…
06-26 22:13:52	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	SELL	648	0¢	$2	0x52bb94…
06-26 20:34:46	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	2,284	3¢	$64	0x236a88…
06-26 20:32:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	1,000	5¢	$50	0x327f2f…
06-26 20:32:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	2,000	48¢	$960	0x58e07f…
06-26 18:26:17	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	1,260	3¢	$40	0x3cbf9d…
06-26 13:43:27	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	1,000	35¢	$350	0xcbf831…
06-26 11:40:25	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by july 31 20260624040209014	Yes	BUY	76	14¢	$11	0x852879…
06-26 11:12:23	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by july 31 20260624040209014	Yes	BUY	132	14¢	$18	0x6f084b…
06-26 10:24:11	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by july 31 20260624040209014	Yes	BUY	1	14¢	$0	0x1b5362…
06-26 10:24:10	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by july 31 20260624040209014	Yes	BUY	1	14¢	$0	0x4ce88b…
06-26 10:24:10	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by july 31 20260624040209014	Yes	BUY	1	14¢	$0	0x0afa6e…
06-26 10:24:08	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by july 31 20260624040209014	Yes	BUY	289	14¢	$40	0x5ec45a…
06-26 08:42:19	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by july 31 20260624040209014	Yes	BUY	700	18¢	$124	0x25a5ac…
06-26 08:19:35	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	354	45¢	$159	0xb259c2…
06-26 08:15:13	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	100	45¢	$45	0x457291…
06-26 08:08:13	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x228491…
06-26 08:07:47	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xb26f1f…
06-26 08:07:44	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	350	45¢	$157	0xb6b9b1…
06-26 07:35:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	953	58¢	$553	0x72c3e7…
06-26 07:34:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	58¢	$580	0x93ec78…
06-26 07:28:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0xb36773…
06-26 07:28:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	42	58¢	$24	0x3c1c6f…
06-26 07:26:26	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	1,000	49¢	$490	0x074e03…
06-26 07:20:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	1,000	12¢	$124	0xcea7bb…
06-26 07:19:34	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	186	45¢	$84	0x71f2db…
06-25 18:57:10	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	2,098	29¢	$608	0x1698c5…
06-25 18:56:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	1,500	4¢	$67	0xc0c24b…
06-25 18:56:19	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	2,098	29¢	$610	0xa741b5…
06-25 17:46:35	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	1,000	4¢	$35	0x77e868…
06-25 17:46:13	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	70	3¢	$2	0xfa9ede…
06-25 15:03:26	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0xb1a5e3…
06-25 13:00:52	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	2,500	3¢	$78	0x3f81c7…
06-25 12:48:52	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	695	39¢	$271	0x585a2c…
06-25 12:48:35	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,000	20¢	$200	0x9aaf48…
06-25 12:38:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	500	12¢	$59	0x7456d2…
06-25 11:34:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	727	9¢	$63	0xee3d0f…
06-25 11:34:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	1	9¢	$0	0x49d695…
06-25 11:34:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	272	9¢	$24	0x320bf8…
06-25 09:30:32	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	141	35¢	$49	0x8a1add…
06-25 09:23:58	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x6630a2…
06-25 09:23:56	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x2e1ff8…
06-25 08:34:35	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	40	35¢	$14	0xf182cc…
06-25 08:34:35	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	40	35¢	$14	0x2747b0…
06-25 08:31:13	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	159	35¢	$56	0xde1893…
06-25 08:31:11	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	55	35¢	$19	0x100fa5…
06-25 08:28:40	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	300	35¢	$105	0x9cc9c6…
06-25 08:28:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	2	35¢	$1	0xab71a1…
06-25 08:24:29	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	35	35¢	$12	0xd94cb1…
06-25 08:20:07	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	15	35¢	$5	0x75b348…
06-25 08:15:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x258d7e…
06-25 08:14:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xebc3f2…
06-25 08:13:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x59425a…
06-25 08:13:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xf01a5a…
06-25 08:10:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0x8afeca…
06-25 08:10:40	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	1,278	3¢	$33	0x655b59…
06-25 08:08:52	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	65	35¢	$23	0x640e0f…
06-24 21:24:07	Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	268	1¢	$3	0x30c21f…
06-24 18:46:46	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	500	26¢	$130	0x468e7f…
06-24 18:06:11	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	500	28¢	$140	0x1e19b2…
06-24 17:10:23	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,000	0¢	$10	0x6e4f31…
06-24 17:10:20	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4,484	0¢	$22	0x638ff3…
06-24 17:06:13	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	1,000	3¢	$26	0x76ab22…
06-24 10:33:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	500	23¢	$115	0x3077fe…
06-24 08:11:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	6,000	2¢	$144	0xb24b39…
06-22 18:01:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	43	31¢	$13	0xc3e749…
06-22 18:01:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	4	31¢	$1	0x632cdd…
06-22 18:01:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	4	31¢	$1	0x4da033…
06-22 18:01:23	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	4	31¢	$1	0xeca601…