Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4.79K

Unrealized P&L

-$38

Hit rate

50.3%

Resolved

209

Trades

1,404

lifetime

Volume

$39.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$28

Open exposure

$55

6 positions

First seen

2026-08-19

last 10-30 19:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 53 days

Categories

Other

80% 39% -$4,371

Politics

9% 46% -$183

Tech

7% 0% -$145

Crypto

2% 45% -$89

Sports

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

44 active days in 12wk • peak 224 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (13) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	No	+54	$50	99¢	$53	+$3	08-31 18:21
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?	No	+1	$3	90¢	$1	-$2	09-09 02:49
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	+54	$4	1¢	$1	-$4	09-01 14:02
Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+2	$26	18¢	$0	-$26	09-03 23:15
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	+1	$1	11¢	$0	-$1	09-03 03:52
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	+0	$9	89¢	$0	-$9	09-08 09:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C or below on October 22?	4	$6.1K	3,181	3,181	+0	No	+$205	10-23 09:21
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 19°C or below on October 10?	11	$4.0K	2,031	2,031	+0	No	+$28	10-10 01:39
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?	18	$3.4K	3,599	0	+3,599	Yes	-$3,370	10-20 09:59
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on October 18?	11	$1.6K	1,102	1,050	+53	Yes	-$514	10-18 22:24
Fed rate hike in 2026?	11	$989	933	933	+0	Yes	-$11	09-09 15:37
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	14	$764	806	806	+0	open	—	09-06 13:23
Will Anthropic IPO by October 15, 2026?	13	$705	756	756	+0	No	-$13	09-08 14:15
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	24	$570	659	659	+0	open	—	09-08 11:12
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by October 31, 2026?	14	$553	1,179	1,050	+128	Yes	-$104	09-08 16:25
Will ByteDance be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?	2	$541	1,867	1,867	+0	open	—	08-30 14:16
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	18	$529	587	587	+0	open	—	10-14 11:54
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	15	$519	612	526	+86	Yes	-$36	09-08 10:14
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?	14	$519	578	578	+0	open	—	09-08 15:23
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	12	$494	890	890	+0	open	—	09-08 07:30
Will Alan Rick win the 2026 Acre gubernatorial election?	5	$453	442	442	+0	No	-$29	09-03 16:32
Will Nassourdine Imamov fight Sean Strickland next?	19	$438	2,912	2,912	+0	open	—	09-04 18:21
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	6	$397	282	282	+0	open	—	09-06 12:31
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on August 20?	33	$358	843	0	+843	No	-$101	08-20 02:58
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	11	$322	716	716	+0	open	—	09-08 07:24
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	13	$288	187	187	+0	open	—	09-08 10:13
Will AfD win the most seats in 2 German state elections in September 2026?	17	$274	346	299	+47	Yes	-$5	09-09 18:47
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?	4	$273	1,402	1,402	-0	open	—	08-30 06:32
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher?	7	$260	167	167	+0	open	—	09-01 02:14
Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?	13	$254	304	179	+125	open	—	09-04 12:09
Will Tencent be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?	7	$252	554	554	+0	open	—	08-31 13:52
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?	7	$223	278	278	+0	Yes	-$58	09-01 08:57
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	5	$216	527	386	+142	No	-$13	09-01 01:10
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	13	$216	357	357	+0	open	—	09-06 20:30
Will Magomed Ankalaev fight Carlos Ulberg next?	6	$208	201	120	+82	open	—	09-09 17:13
Will there be 1-3 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?	17	$207	188	178	+10	open	—	09-08 21:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 19:25:39	Will Vamos win the second most seats in the 2027 Salvadoran legislative election?	Yes	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0xb62542…
10-29 17:39:49	Will Tim O'Hare win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?	No	SELL	18	68¢	$12	0xcf500d…
10-29 10:45:28	Will Eli Lilly (LLY) Q3 Zepbound sales be above $5.5B?	No	SELL	20	96¢	$19	0x33d569…
10-29 06:52:29	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on October 29?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xf19d8f…
10-28 10:55:40	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on October 28?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xa98a7e…
10-28 10:55:35	Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on October 28?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x759a13…
10-26 01:11:26	Ilhan Omar denaturalization case filed by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	15	34¢	$5	0x1c46cc…
10-26 00:04:54	Will the peak wind gust in Wellington be 86 to 95 km/h in October?	No	SELL	20	69¢	$14	0xd67b4e…
10-25 20:33:38	Will Celina Leão win the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial second round by 15%-20%?	Yes	SELL	9	41¢	$4	0xea5ded…
10-24 22:22:12	Will Mailza Assis win the 2026 Acre gubernatorial second round by 5%-10%?	Yes	SELL	10	38¢	$4	0x4f3a6f…
10-24 11:40:39	Will Micron Q1 DRAM revenue be above $44B?	Yes	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0x5bd93d…
10-23 09:21:36	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C or below on October 22?	No	SELL	388	99¢	$385	0x20cbef…
10-23 09:14:35	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C or below on October 22?	No	SELL	1,498	99¢	$1,485	0xe99a5f…
10-23 09:14:05	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C or below on October 22?	No	SELL	1,294	99¢	$1,284	0xec2e30…
10-23 04:12:26	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C or below on October 21?	No	SELL	75	99¢	$74	0xdaed19…
10-22 14:04:20	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on October 22?	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x6902ae…
10-22 14:02:32	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on October 22?	No	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0xd5cd3f…
10-22 06:37:32	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 13°C on October 22?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x156386…
10-22 06:07:40	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 13°C on October 22?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xbcce80…
10-22 05:51:32	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C or below on October 22?	No	BUY	3,181	93¢	$2,948	0xd5975e…
10-21 23:55:42	Will "The Birthday Gift" be nominated for Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	20	87¢	$17	0x97fcc7…
10-21 19:54:45	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on October 21?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x05a62e…
10-21 19:54:42	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on October 21?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xec57af…
10-21 18:34:06	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on October 21?	No	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0x9b8985…
10-21 16:57:39	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on October 21?	No	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0xf82450…
10-21 15:50:59	Will Lyft (LYFT) Q3 rides be above 285M?	Yes	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0x508490…
10-21 12:31:03	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on October 21?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x2d4873…
10-21 12:24:26	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on October 21?	No	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0x289c12…
10-21 12:21:44	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on October 21?	No	BUY	19	97¢	$19	0x1a6daa…
10-21 12:02:18	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on October 21?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x4e70f9…
10-21 06:22:44	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C or below on October 21?	No	BUY	75	93¢	$70	0xb67dc8…
10-20 17:16:33	Will AlloX FDV be above $80M one day after launch?	No	SELL	19	71¢	$14	0x52270b…
10-20 14:07:32	Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on October 20?	No	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0xaba162…
10-20 09:59:27	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?	No	BUY	70	80¢	$56	0x0cf423…
10-20 09:33:57	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xb8662a…
10-20 05:26:03	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?	No	BUY	9	85¢	$8	0x9f3637…
10-20 05:12:05	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?	No	BUY	56	85¢	$48	0xb6530b…
10-20 04:53:00	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?	No	BUY	52	86¢	$44	0x7c6031…
10-20 04:47:05	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?	No	BUY	150	89¢	$133	0x58dd8b…
10-20 04:21:44	Will AlloX FDV be above $80M one day after launch?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x565892…
10-20 04:17:24	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?	No	BUY	158	91¢	$144	0x4b71a8…
10-20 04:02:23	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x2f10d7…
10-20 04:00:35	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?	No	BUY	73	92¢	$67	0xe6196f…
10-20 03:52:15	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?	No	BUY	440	93¢	$410	0xdff21c…
10-20 03:24:21	Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on October 20?	No	BUY	50	97¢	$49	0x65bfdc…
10-20 03:17:05	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?	No	BUY	708	95¢	$673	0xbd7b92…
10-20 02:57:15	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?	No	BUY	215	95¢	$205	0x22992e…
10-20 02:22:15	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?	No	BUY	841	95¢	$797	0xc3b57c…
10-20 02:12:15	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?	No	BUY	217	94¢	$205	0xe77dfe…
10-20 02:02:05	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?	No	BUY	139	95¢	$131	0x2e900f…
10-20 01:52:05	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?	No	BUY	124	95¢	$118	0xdddfa2…
10-20 01:47:33	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?	No	BUY	14	95¢	$14	0xab4a42…
10-20 01:37:14	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C or below on October 20?	No	BUY	325	95¢	$310	0xe2a229…
10-19 14:07:29	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	No	SELL	5	81¢	$4	0x93e73c…
10-19 14:07:27	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	No	SELL	15	81¢	$12	0x9cd50d…
10-19 13:25:03	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on October 19?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x7eb3b0…
10-19 00:37:51	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	No	SELL	31	47¢	$14	0xaa2278…
10-19 00:37:51	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	No	SELL	19	47¢	$9	0x4e5ceb…
10-18 22:24:05	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on October 18?	No	SELL	584	37¢	$218	0x8aa62a…
10-18 22:21:03	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on October 18?	No	SELL	10	58¢	$6	0x26ece6…
10-18 22:21:00	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on October 18?	No	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0x0d5a9c…
10-18 22:20:57	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on October 18?	No	SELL	51	62¢	$32	0x1f1490…
10-18 22:20:53	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on October 18?	No	SELL	39	64¢	$25	0x47d0e7…
10-18 22:20:48	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on October 18?	No	SELL	144	68¢	$98	0x1cb572…
10-18 22:20:44	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on October 18?	No	SELL	176	70¢	$124	0x597326…
10-18 22:20:39	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on October 18?	No	SELL	25	73¢	$18	0x9ca6b7…
10-18 22:06:38	Will Lyft (LYFT) Q3 rides be above 285M?	Yes	SELL	0	13¢	$0	0x94bed9…
10-18 11:41:05	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on October 18?	No	BUY	500	95¢	$475	0x22f8b4…
10-18 11:36:05	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on October 18?	No	BUY	53	95¢	$50	0x65b24a…
10-18 11:31:05	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on October 18?	No	BUY	550	95¢	$522	0x367533…
10-17 19:34:26	pedro snchez out as pm of spain by january 31 2027	Yes	SELL	19	66¢	$13	0x92b2e0…
10-17 19:34:26	pedro snchez out as pm of spain by january 31 2027	Yes	SELL	1	66¢	$1	0x389ee7…
10-17 05:24:14	Will S&P Global (SPGI) Q3 Rating revenues be above $1.4B?	No	SELL	20	84¢	$17	0xf91fbf…
10-17 04:08:51	will micron q1 dram revenue be above 46b	No	SELL	20	66¢	$13	0x007b2e…
10-16 23:03:20	will micron q1 dram revenue be above 44b	Yes	SELL	8	82¢	$7	0x87c0e2…
10-16 22:15:35	Will the lowest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on October 17?	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x847f24…
10-16 18:42:43	Will London have less than 35mm of precipitation in October?	No	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0xe4f1fd…
10-16 13:21:34	will christopher miller be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0x27883c…
10-16 13:21:28	will christopher miller be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0x549f3d…
10-16 12:59:22	hamilton flips marshall for kansas senate by november 2	Yes	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0xfe149a…
10-16 11:52:33	will too much to ask from ray gunn be nominated for best original song at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x1284ac…
10-16 11:52:30	will too much to ask from ray gunn be nominated for best original song at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x9c1bc6…
10-16 11:41:57	paxton flips talarico for texas senate by november 2	Yes	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0x0a9cdf…
10-16 11:41:51	paxton flips talarico for texas senate by november 2	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x09a55d…
10-16 11:35:24	michigan senate favorite on november 2	Rogers	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0x2fb9b4…
10-16 11:35:19	michigan senate favorite on november 2	Rogers	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0xeac943…
10-16 11:08:52	will micron q1 nand revenue be above 17pt0b	No	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0x4c2f50…
10-16 11:07:52	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	26¢	$12	0xd23520…
10-16 11:07:48	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	26¢	$12	0x7d24a3…
10-16 11:00:15	Will Solana hit $300 by December 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x9d47dc…
10-16 10:34:21	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0x8f184f…
10-16 10:34:15	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x0f9139…
10-16 10:30:13	collins flips jackson for maine senate by november 2	No	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0xf37e25…
10-16 10:04:58	texas senate favorite on november 2	Paxton	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x34979b…
10-16 09:53:31	will wild horse nine be nominated for best film editing at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	No	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0xc4d65a…
10-16 09:34:16	osborn flips ricketts for nebraska senate by november 2	No	SELL	10	78¢	$8	0x400418…
10-16 09:34:07	osborn flips ricketts for nebraska senate by november 2	No	SELL	10	76¢	$8	0x49e2a6…
10-16 09:05:12	will analog devices q4 industrial revenue be above 2pt1b	No	SELL	20	44¢	$9	0xc4f4ca…
10-16 09:05:07	will analog devices q4 industrial revenue be above 2pt1b	No	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x4c079a…
10-16 09:05:07	will analog devices q4 industrial revenue be above 2pt1b	No	BUY	0	46¢	$0	0x0a864d…