Outlandish-Naturalisation — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

+$10

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

75.9%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

447 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$79

$1.21K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-10

last 11-04 01:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 65 days

Categories

Other

70% 50% +$59

Crypto

20% 59% +$11

Sports

8% 27% -$14

Politics

3% 67% +$9

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes		+20	$5	44¢	$9	+$3	10-16 17:53

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
elon musk of tweets march 5 march 7 0 39	2	$64	200	200	+0	No	+$7	03-04 15:23
elon musk of tweets march 2 march 4 0 39	5	$47	100	100	+0	Yes	+$42	03-04 14:46
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 200 219	3	$41	40	40	+0	Yes	+$31	03-03 15:31
elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 300 319	3	$30	40	40	+0	Yes	+$18	02-27 17:03
elon musk of tweets february 17 february 24 260 279	3	$29	200	200	+0	No	-$11	02-20 15:23
elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 260 279	2	$26	120	120	+0	No	-$2	02-20 15:22
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 260 279	3	$26	70	70	+0	No	-$5	02-28 17:09
Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	2	$25	20	20	+0	Yes	+$11	10-16 01:14
elon musk of tweets february 17 february 24 320 339	4	$25	80	80	+0	No	+$2	02-23 01:51
elon musk of tweets february 19 february 21 65 89	4	$23	42	42	+0	No	+$1	02-20 13:47
elon musk of tweets february 21 february 23 65 89	3	$21	20	20	+0	Yes	+$7	02-23 16:49
elon musk of tweets february 16 february 18 90 114	3	$17	11	11	+0	Yes	+$3	02-18 16:32
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 180 199	5	$15	105	105	+0	No	+$1	03-06 15:00
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 300 319	3	$15	50	50	+0	No	+$1	02-27 23:41
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	1	$15	23	0	+23	Yes	+$8	10-03 00:42
elon musk of tweets february 23 february 25 65 89	2	$14	10	10	+0	Yes	+$6	02-25 16:51
lal ray mad 2026 02 14 mad	2	$13	12	12	+0	No	-$1	02-15 15:52
mwoh fin swe 2026 02 13	2	$12	10	10	+0	Finland	+$4	02-13 12:36
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-13 02:15 UTC	2	$12	13	13	+0	Down	+$2	02-13 02:25
elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 280 299	2	$12	50	50	+0	No	-$2	02-23 02:31
elon musk of tweets february 17 february 24 280 299	2	$11	40	40	+0	No	-$2	02-20 16:36
lal vil esp 2026 02 09 vil	2	$11	7	7	+0	Yes	+$3	02-09 21:33
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 280 299	3	$11	40	45	-5	No	-$2	02-28 17:19
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 220 239	2	$11	30	30	+0	No	$0	02-28 17:26
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$10	179	179	+0	No	+$0	07-06 14:14
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 140 159	2	$10	100	100	+0	No	-$4	03-05 17:25
crint gbr ind 2026 03 05	6	$10	55	55	+0	India	$0	03-05 16:33
Will Gyanesh Kumar be out as Chief Election Commissioner of India by December 31?	1	$10	40	0	+40	open	—	10-12 00:47
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	2	$9	21	21	+0	open	—	10-09 20:38
ethereum up or down on february 9	3	$8	7	7	+0	Up	+$4	02-09 16:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 01:57:34	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	10	32¢	$3	0x8413e7…
10-27 23:15:38	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x64f286…
10-16 23:44:41	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x908440…
10-16 22:17:45	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x1decfc…
10-16 17:53:09	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x56ce9c…
10-16 17:51:48	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	53	5¢	$3	0x7c4d0b…
10-16 01:17:46	tsla up or down on october 16 2026	Up	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0xa58501…
10-16 01:14:46	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Yes	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0x8c664e…
10-16 01:08:48	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Yes	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x6e9281…
10-12 00:47:41	Will Gyanesh Kumar be out as Chief Election Commissioner of India by December 31?	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0xe7a82c…
10-09 20:38:37	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	SELL	21	18¢	$4	0x7b780c…
10-08 22:14:08	Modi out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	10¢	$5	0xb7dcb2…
10-07 23:36:34	Jacksonville State vs. Kennesaw State	Jacksonville State	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x363a27…
10-07 23:33:02	Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0xb3423e…
10-04 23:17:53	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-04 23:20 UTC	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x562dcc…
10-03 00:42:56	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	23	65¢	$15	0x613491…
07-06 14:14:01	Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	179	3¢	$5	0x57bd04…
07-04 18:57:29	Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x4316fb…
07-04 18:57:10	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x2e1dff…
07-03 20:11:32	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	97	2¢	$2	0xbaaa56…
07-03 20:11:07	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0x7d4278…
07-01 17:27:25	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	8	23¢	$2	0xf5e186…
07-01 17:26:52	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	97	3¢	$3	0xd2aeb4…
07-01 17:26:43	Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	179	3¢	$5	0xf9c273…
06-30 05:14:46	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0xe6a0be…
06-29 21:30:20	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x70ffc0…
06-29 21:28:59	Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xe2a259…
06-28 16:22:17	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x802f73…
06-27 23:34:05	Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xf6f512…
06-26 15:44:40	Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x106e14…
06-24 23:37:59	another gta vi trailer released by june 26	No	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x1c8eec…
06-24 23:35:23	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0xcb1441…
06-24 23:33:28	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x6e8d5e…
06-24 23:33:10	Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x85e33a…
06-23 04:10:25	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x90220d…
06-22 00:51:23	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x6b1818…
06-21 16:12:23	Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x365be4…
06-18 04:27:08	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-18 04:25 UTC	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xc1a6e7…
06-18 03:49:02	Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x949f02…
06-17 03:44:25	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	7	0¢	$0	0x16e6c2…
06-16 21:28:47	Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xbfcc30…
06-14 18:53:09	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	7¢	$1	0x764bcf…
06-14 17:16:06	Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xf4bf5c…
05-31 14:56:47	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x92e99e…
03-28 14:06:59	cricipl roy sun 2026 03 28	Sunrisers Hyderabad	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x93ab0a…
03-23 14:19:41	elon musk of tweets march 23 march 25 90 114	Yes	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0x4ffd20…
03-21 03:31:21	epl bri liv 2026 03 21 liv	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xd5b608…
03-18 16:34:09	elon musk of tweets march 19 march 21 40 64	Yes	BUY	30	20¢	$6	0x746f1f…
03-17 19:37:23	ucl mnc1 rma1 2026 03 17 rma1	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x192323…
03-08 23:18:21	elon musk of tweets march 2026 960 999	Yes	SELL	56	2¢	$1	0x456672…
03-08 23:18:15	elon musk of tweets march 7 march 9 40 64	Yes	SELL	4	1¢	$0	0x0f2c78…
03-08 01:33:07	elon musk of tweets march 7 march 9 40 64	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x450a9a…
03-07 14:37:53	elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 220 239	Yes	SELL	17	1¢	$0	0xecd401…
03-07 03:55:17	elon musk of tweets march 5 march 7 40 64	Yes	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0xa0db4f…
03-06 15:00:49	elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 180 199	Yes	SELL	25	3¢	$1	0x048f53…
03-06 02:43:31	elon musk of tweets march 2026 960 999	Yes	BUY	9	5¢	$0	0xe3b246…
03-06 02:42:51	elon musk of tweets march 2026 960 999	Yes	BUY	47	5¢	$3	0xefe025…
03-06 00:06:53	elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 220 239	Yes	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0xc276af…
03-06 00:06:05	elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 220 239	Yes	BUY	12	12¢	$2	0xa0a9de…
03-05 17:25:07	elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 140 159	Yes	SELL	100	3¢	$3	0x0f6af2…
03-05 16:33:17	crint gbr ind 2026 03 05	England	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x1828ec…
03-05 16:12:41	crint gbr ind 2026 03 05	England	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x9f8cb4…
03-05 16:09:37	crint gbr ind 2026 03 05	England	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x3377e1…
03-05 14:55:43	crint gbr ind 2026 03 05	England	SELL	8	9¢	$1	0xcff447…
03-05 14:46:47	crint gbr ind 2026 03 05	England	SELL	22	10¢	$2	0x77c03c…
03-05 14:39:45	crint gbr ind 2026 03 05	England	BUY	30	14¢	$4	0x788267…
03-05 00:50:21	bun lei aug 2026 03 07 aug	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x3c38c6…
03-05 00:43:33	elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 140 159	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0xfca08f…
03-05 00:43:03	elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 580plus	Yes	SELL	250	0¢	$1	0xe80f48…
03-05 00:22:35	elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 580plus	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0xfa8964…
03-04 15:23:09	elon musk of tweets march 5 march 7 0 39	Yes	SELL	200	18¢	$36	0xcec92c…
03-04 14:46:23	elon musk of tweets march 2 march 4 0 39	Yes	SELL	10	82¢	$8	0x65fd84…
03-04 13:44:03	elon musk of tweets march 2 march 4 0 39	Yes	SELL	30	82¢	$25	0x354a56…
03-04 04:27:15	elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 180 199	Yes	SELL	75	10¢	$7	0x85d7d8…
03-03 22:18:51	elon musk of tweets march 5 march 7 0 39	Yes	BUY	200	14¢	$28	0x7f019b…
03-03 15:45:09	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 220 239	Yes	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0x56195a…
03-03 15:43:55	elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 180 199	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0xdf092e…
03-03 15:39:13	elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 180 199	Yes	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0xb4b4be…
03-03 15:35:59	elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 180 199	Yes	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x9da20c…
03-03 15:31:43	elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 200 219	Yes	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0xc0df42…
03-03 14:28:39	will a dozen eggs cost between 2pt402pt50 in february	Yes	SELL	8	25¢	$2	0x66cb1d…
03-03 14:27:15	elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 200 219	Yes	SELL	30	87¢	$26	0x9b4add…
03-03 05:25:27	elon musk of tweets march 2 march 4 0 39	Yes	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0xc5603f…
03-03 04:46:47	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 220 239	Yes	SELL	10	18¢	$2	0x6ddf80…
03-03 02:38:25	elon musk of tweets march 2 march 4 0 39	Yes	SELL	40	16¢	$6	0xbc2b8c…
03-02 15:05:19	elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 180 199	Yes	SELL	38	3¢	$1	0x623dbb…
03-02 04:09:27	elon musk of tweets march 2 march 4 0 39	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0xa3efd7…
03-02 03:30:49	elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 180 199	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x2288b8…
03-01 16:32:37	crint ind wst 2026 03 01	West Indies	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0xbbb2e4…
03-01 16:08:05	crint ind wst 2026 03 01	West Indies	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x4eb0c7…
03-01 15:01:11	elon musk of tweets february 28 march 2 0 39	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0xb7e81f…
03-01 03:30:19	elon musk of tweets february 28 march 2 0 39	Yes	BUY	10	6¢	$1	0xf2b2f7…
02-28 20:16:43	elon musk of tweets february 28 march 2 0 39	Yes	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0xb950d7…
02-28 18:28:31	elon musk of tweets february 28 march 2 0 39	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$3	0xf243ed…
02-28 17:26:11	elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 220 239	Yes	SELL	30	17¢	$5	0xd50c5e…
02-28 17:19:45	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 280 299	Yes	SELL	14	10¢	$1	0x177a31…
02-28 17:18:33	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 220 239	Yes	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0x4790f5…
02-28 17:18:11	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 220 239	Yes	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0xf61d42…
02-28 17:17:07	elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 280 299	Yes	SELL	31	10¢	$3	0xae9ce3…
02-28 17:15:39	elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 200 219	Yes	BUY	40	13¢	$5	0xeba968…